Cubs vs Brewers match player stats | 2025 Friday, May 2nd

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Cubs vs Brewers match player stats | 2025 Friday, May 2nd

CHC @ MIL

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Matchup Details

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers

Todays Game is on Friday, May 2nd
02/05/25 20:10:00 PM EST First Pitch

Positive Match Player Stats for Cubs vs Brewers Matchup Today

Sal Frelick is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.

In Major League Baseball, American Family Field has the 5th-lowest average fence height.

American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.

Sal Frelick will hold the platoon advantage against Ben Brown in today’s game.

Sal Frelick hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 80th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Joey Ortiz will hold that advantage today.

Joey Ortiz has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 83-mph to 85.5-mph in the last week.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.287) may lead us to conclude that Joey Ortiz has experienced some negative variance this year with his .225 actual wOBA.

With a 1.74 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Joey Ortiz has demonstrated favorable plate discipline, placing in the 87th percentile.

Jackson Chourio’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jackson Chourio is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.

Jackson Chourio hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Jackson Chourio will hold that advantage in today’s game.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Jackson Chourio ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Caleb Durbin hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Caleb Durbin will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

Caleb Durbin has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 90.3-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 85.7-mph average.

When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Ben Brown in the 89th percentile among all starting pitchers in the game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles American Family Field as the best park in baseball for strikeouts.

Checking in at the 76th percentile, Ben Brown recorded a 12% Swinging Strike% since the start of last season.

Placing in the 90th percentile, Ben Brown has put up a 26.8% strikeout rate since the start of last season.

In the league, American Family Field’s CF fences are the 6th-shallowest.

Nico Hoerner has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today’s game.

Nico Hoerner has recorded a .286 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, grading out in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

As it relates to plate discipline, Nico Hoerner’s skill is quite impressive, sporting a 1.44 K/BB rate since the start of last season while ranking in in the 94th percentile.

Nico Hoerner’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Ian Happ is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.

As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Ian Happ will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Quinn Priester in this game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 10th-best batter in the league.

Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Quinn Priester throws from, Kyle Tucker will have an edge in today’s game.

Extreme groundball hitters like Kyle Tucker tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Quinn Priester.

Rhys Hoskins will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Rhys Hoskins has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.2-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 89.8-mph average.

There has been a significant improvement in Rhys Hoskins’s launch angle from last year’s 20.6° to 24° this season.

When estimating his home run ability, Rhys Hoskins ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Dansby Swanson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Dansby Swanson has made notable gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 10.9% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the last week.

Last year, Dansby Swanson had an average launch angle of 14.7° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 17.8°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

William Contreras is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.

William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Extreme flyball bats like William Contreras usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Ben Brown.

When estimating his home run ability, Jake Bauers ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jake Bauers is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

Jake Bauers will hold the platoon advantage over Ben Brown in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Jake Bauers will hold that advantage in today’s game.

In the last 7 days, Jake Bauers’s 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 21.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 84th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Michael Busch is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.

Michael Busch will hold the platoon advantage over Quinn Priester today.

Michael Busch has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 98.3-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal EV of 92.6-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 75th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Batting from the opposite that Quinn Priester throws from, Pete Crow-Armstrong will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has made big strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 11.6% seasonal rate to 25% over the past 14 days.

When estimating his home run skill, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Eric Haase, the Brewers’s expected catcher in today’s game, projects as a good pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Home field advantage typically improves pitcher stats across the board, and Quinn Priester will hold that advantage today.

Quinn Priester has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his strikeouts since the start of last season, notching a 6.03 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 6.68 — a 0.65 K/9 difference.

Quinn Priester has put up a 1.36 K/BB rate since the start of last season, grading out in the 13th percentile.

The 9.8% Barrel% of the Chicago Cubs ranks them as the #8 squad in the league this year by this metric.

As a team, Chicago Cubs bats have shined when assessing hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to best-produce base hits (between -4° and 26°), placing 2nd-best in the majors.

Brice Turang is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.

Brice Turang will hold the platoon advantage against Ben Brown in today’s matchup.

Brice Turang hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 84th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Seiya Suzuki as the 20th-best hitter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

Seiya Suzuki hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (42.7% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

Seiya Suzuki has made big improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 11.5% rate last season to 18.1% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Seiya Suzuki in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Negative Match Player Stats with Cubs vs Brewers

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 3rd percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks American Family Field as the 5th-worst venue in the majors for run-scoring.

Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs.

Sal Frelick is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Chicago (#2-best on the slate).

Sal Frelick’s launch angle this season (1.3°) is considerably worse than his 9.7° angle last year.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 1.3°, Sal Frelick has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-9.3°) over the past 14 days.

Sal Frelick has been lucky this year, compiling a .356 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .294 — a .062 gap.

Using Statcast metrics, Sal Frelick grades out in the 2nd percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 1.500.

American Family Field ranks as the #26 stadium in baseball for lefty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Joey Ortiz is projected to hit 8th in the batting order today.

Ben Brown will have the handedness advantage over Joey Ortiz in today’s game.

Joey Ortiz has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

American Family Field ranks as the #26 ballpark in baseball for righty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Joey Ortiz’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 87.8-mph EV last year has dropped off to 83-mph.

Joey Ortiz’s launch angle in recent games (-1.8° in the past week’s worth of games) is quite a bit worse than his 17.6° seasonal mark.

Ben Brown will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jackson Chourio today.

Jackson Chourio’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, decreasing from 16% to 10.3%.

Over the past two weeks, Jackson Chourio’s 6.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 10.3%.

In terms of his home runs, Jackson Chourio has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His 22.8 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.6.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Caleb Durbin in the 11th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Caleb Durbin is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today’s game.

Ben Brown will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Caleb Durbin in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Caleb Durbin in the 13th percentile when estimating his home run talent.

Caleb Durbin’s launch angle of late (0.7° in the past week) is a significant dropoff from his 8.4° seasonal figure.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Caleb Durbin has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

Carson Kelly, the Cubs’s expected catcher today, grades out as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Ben Brown has a reverse platoon split and is stuck going up against 6 same-handed hitters in this game.

Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Ben Brown (33.4% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 3 FB hitters in Milwaukee’s projected batting order.

Ben Brown will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s judgement, Ben Brown’s overall pitching talent is in the 79th percentile out of all SPs in the league currently.

It may be sensible to expect worse results for the Milwaukee Brewers offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 10th-luckiest offense in the game this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects American Family Field as the worst field in the majors for batting average.

Considering the 0.84 discrepancy between Ben Brown’s 4.35 ERA and his 3.51 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the league since the start of last season and should see better results the rest of the season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner in the 2nd percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

Quinn Priester will hold the platoon advantage over Nico Hoerner in today’s game.

Today, Nico Hoerner is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.3% rate (90th percentile).

Nico Hoerner will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Nico Hoerner’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased of late; his 85.8-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 81.6-mph in the past 14 days.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Ian Happ in today’s matchup.

Ian Happ has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 7.8% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past week.

Grading out in the 24th percentile for power, Ian Happ has averaged 7.1 dingers per 600 plate appearances this year.

In today’s game, Kyle Tucker is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 33.9% rate (81st percentile).

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Kyle Tucker in today’s game.

Kyle Tucker has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 17.7% seasonal rate has dropped to 7.7% in the last 7 days.

Kyle Tucker’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined lately; his 94-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 91.2-mph over the past week.

Kyle Tucker’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined in recent games, going from 24.8% on the season to 20.7% in the last 14 days.

Rhys Hoskins’s BABIP talent is projected in the 4th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Rhys Hoskins is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

22% of the time that Rhys Hoskins has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

Ben Brown will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Rhys Hoskins in today’s game.

Typically, bats like Rhys Hoskins who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Ben Brown.

Rhys Hoskins’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off recently, decreasing from 15.1% on the season to 0% over the last week.

Dansby Swanson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (87% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

Hitting from the same side that Quinn Priester throws from, Dansby Swanson will be in a tough position in today’s matchup.

Dansby Swanson will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Dansby Swanson’s launch angle recently (1.2° over the past two weeks) is a significant dropoff from his 18° seasonal figure.

Ben Brown will have the handedness advantage against William Contreras today.

William Contreras has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 10% rate last year has decreased to 3.4% this season.

From last season to this one, William Contreras’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 10.5% to 4.5%.

William Contreras’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined in recent games, decreasing from 4.5% on the season to 0% in the last two weeks.

When starting against a right-handed starter since the start of last season, Jake Bauers has been pinch hit for 19% of the time.

Jake Bauers pulls many of his flyballs (35% — 88th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Typically, batters like Jake Bauers who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Ben Brown.

Jake Bauers’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 10th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jake Bauers has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 15.8% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last 7 days.

Jake Bauers’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 89.9-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 82.7-mph over the last week.

Michael Busch has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 20% of the time when starting against a northpaw this year.

Michael Busch pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Michael Busch today.

As it relates to his batting average, Michael Busch has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His .253 rate has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .220.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Michael Busch’s true offensive ability to be a .328, implying that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .056 disparity between that figure and his actual .384 wOBA.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Pete Crow-Armstrong in today’s matchup.

In terms of plate discipline, Pete Crow-Armstrong’s talent is quite weak, putting up a 4.59 K/BB rate since the start of last season while checking in at in the 10th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Pete Crow-Armstrong’s true offensive talent to be a .317, indicating that he has been lucky this year given the .040 disparity between that mark and his actual .357 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Quinn Priester in the 10th percentile when it comes to his strikeout talent.

Quinn Priester has compiled a 13.6% strikeout rate since the start of last season, grading out in the 10th percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Chicago Cubs in this game carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .331, which is a fair amount lower than their actual wOBA of .342 this year.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season,When estimating his home run ability, Brice Turang ranks in the 9th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Brice Turang has recorded a .151 Isolated Power rate (ISO) since the start of last season, placing in the 7th percentile.

When it comes to his home runs, Brice Turang has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His 8.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 3.7.

Quinn Priester will hold the platoon advantage against Seiya Suzuki in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Seiya Suzuki in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his batting average, Seiya Suzuki has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His .284 rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .243.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.351) implies that Seiya Suzuki has had some very good luck this year with his .392 actual wOBA.

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