World Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Brewers vs D-Backs Series Game 3 Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 80th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Sal Frelick is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game.

The #2 park in the league for boosting batting average to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.

The Chase Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game 14° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.

Hitting from the opposite that Zac Gallen throws from, Sal Frelick will have an edge in today’s game.

In the last 7 days, Sal Frelick’s 9.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 5.9%.

Joey Ortiz has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 84.2-mph to 95.6-mph over the past 7 days.

With a 1.68 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Joey Ortiz has shown favorable plate discipline, ranking in the 86th percentile.

Joey Ortiz’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 75th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Chase Field profiles as the #2 park in the majors for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Jackson Chourio is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jackson Chourio ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jackson Chourio has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 10.5% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the past 7 days.

Tim Tawa will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Ranking in the 86th percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.23 ft/sec this year, Tim Tawa is very fast.

Oliver Dunn will hold the platoon advantage over Zac Gallen today.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Pavin Smith ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Pavin Smith is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

Pavin Smith will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Pavin Smith will hold that advantage today.

The #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

Zac Gallen’s 92.3-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.5-mph decline from last year’s 93.8-mph mark.

Zac Gallen’s curveball utilization has dropped by 6.6% from last season to this one (27.7% to 21.1%) .

The Milwaukee Brewers have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 16.4° mark is among the highest in the game since the start of last season (#2 overall).

Zac Gallen has averaged 96.9 adjusted pitches per GS since the start of last season, grading out in the 94th percentile.

As it relates to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Zac Gallen in the 86th percentile among all starting pitchers in the league.

The Milwaukee Brewers have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Garrett Mitchell, Rhys Hoskins, Oliver Dunn).

Zac Gallen will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats across the board.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 95th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Eugenio Suarez will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Eugenio Suarez has made big improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 11.4% rate last season to 21.9% this season.

Eugenio Suarez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95.6-mph average to last season’s 89-mph figure.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Eugenio Suarez ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Josh Naylor’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Josh Naylor is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Josh Naylor will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Naylor in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Josh Naylor will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today’s game.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s launch angle this year (21.1°) is significantly better than his 15.5° figure last year.

In the past week’s worth of games, Rhys Hoskins’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5% up to 16.7%.

In the last week, Rhys Hoskins’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.4-mph over the course of the season to 95.5-mph in recent games.

As it relates to his home run ability, Rhys Hoskins ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Rhys Hoskins’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls of late (39° in the past week) is quite a bit better than his 34° seasonal figure.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, William Contreras ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

William Contreras is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game.

William Contreras has hit one of the hardest balls in baseball in the last 14 days — 114.1-mph — which is a good measure of recent form and raw power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Yelich in the 95th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Christian Yelich is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Zac Gallen throws from, Christian Yelich will have an advantage today.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Christian Yelich ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Christian Yelich has hit one of the hardest balls in Major League Baseball over the past week — 110.6-mph — which is a good measure of recent form and raw power.

Freddy Peralta projects as the 12th-best starting pitcher in the game right now when estimating his strikeout skill, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Freddy Peralta has averaged 96.7 adjusted pitches per GS since the start of last season, grading out in the 93rd percentile.

In his last start, Freddy Peralta performed well and compiled 8 strikeouts.

Among all starting pitchers, Freddy Peralta’s fastball spin rate of 2437 rpm grades out in the 87th percentile this year.

Playing on the road generally weakens pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Freddy Peralta in today’s game.

Freddy Peralta’s four-seam fastball usage has spiked by 5.9% from last year to this one (53.8% to 59.7%) .

Geraldo Perdomo is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

Geraldo Perdomo will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Geraldo Perdomo has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 90.1-mph average to last year’s 87-mph mark.

Geraldo Perdomo has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 97.6-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal mark of 92-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Extreme flyball bats like Gabriel Moreno tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Freddy Peralta.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 78th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Gabriel Moreno will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake McCarthy in the 77th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Jake McCarthy will have an edge in today’s game.

Extreme groundball batters like Jake McCarthy are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Freddy Peralta.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Jake McCarthy will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Brice Turang is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Zac Gallen throws from, Brice Turang will have an advantage in today’s game.

Brice Turang’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The Barrel% of Brice Turang has significantly improved, with an increase from 2.5% last year to 8.8% this season.

Garrett Mitchell will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zac Gallen in today’s game.

Garrett Mitchell has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph to 97-mph over the past 7 days.

Garrett Mitchell has notched a .343 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, checking in at the 87th percentile.

Placing in the 83rd percentile, Garrett Mitchell has notched a .442 Slugging Percentage (SLG) since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Garrett Mitchell as the 20th-best hitter in baseball when it comes to his BABIP talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Corbin Carroll is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

Corbin Carroll will have the handedness advantage against Freddy Peralta in today’s game.

Corbin Carroll will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Negative Match Player Stats with Brewers vs D-Backs Series Game 3

When starting against a right-handed pitcher since the start of last season, Sal Frelick has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 16% of the time.

In today’s matchup, Sal Frelick is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.4% rate (92nd percentile).

Sal Frelick will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Sal Frelick’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 83.8-mph seasonal average has dropped to 78.8-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

From last year to this one, Sal Frelick’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 11.3% to 5.9%.

As it relates to his home run skill, Sal Frelick ranks in the 3rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Among all major league parks, the 10th-tallest fences are at Chase Field.

The #2 venue in Major League Baseball for suppressing home runs to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

Joey Ortiz is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-worst park in Major League Baseball for right-handed home runs.

Hitting from the same side that Zac Gallen throws from, Joey Ortiz has a tough challenge today.

Joey Ortiz has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Joey Ortiz will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

There has been a decrease in Joey Ortiz’s average exit velocity this year, from 87.8 mph last year to 84.2 mph now,Hitting from the same side that Zac Gallen throws from, Jackson Chourio will be at a disadvantage today.

Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jackson Chourio in today’s game.

Jackson Chourio’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last season to this one, falling from 41.1% to 34.1%.

Jackson Chourio has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .346 rate is quite a bit higher than his .330 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tim Tawa in the 18th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Tim Tawa is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this game.

The 3rd-deepest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Chase Field.

Hitting from the same side that Freddy Peralta throws from, Tim Tawa has a tough challenge in today’s game.

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the 2nd-best out of all the teams playing today.

Oliver Dunn’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 16th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Oliver Dunn is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in today’s game.

27% of the time that Oliver Dunn has started against a righty on the mound since the start of last season, he has been pinch hit for.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Oliver Dunn ranks in the 21st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Oliver Dunn in today’s matchup.

When starting against a northpaw this year, Pavin Smith has been pinch hit for 58% of the time.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.372) may lead us to conclude that Pavin Smith has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season with his .391 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Zac Gallen in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall pitching talent level.

It may be smart to expect negative regression for the Milwaukee Brewers offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 10th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.

Lance Barrett profiles as a Pitchers Umpire and is likely to be in charge of the strike zone in today’s game.

Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s game, Zac Gallen may not pitch more than a couple innings considering he will be treated as more of an opener.

The #3 ballpark in the league for suppressing strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

Eugenio Suarez is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game.

Batting from the same side that Freddy Peralta throws from, Eugenio Suarez has a tough challenge in today’s game.

Extreme flyball hitters like Eugenio Suarez tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Freddy Peralta.

In terms of his home runs, Josh Naylor has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His 27.6 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 22.3.

Josh Naylor has posted a .253 BABIP since the start of last season, checking in at the 9th percentile.

Josh Naylor’s launch angle this season (6.4°) is considerably lower than his 10.8° angle last season.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Josh Naylor has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season. His .336 mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .321.

Freddy Peralta will hold the platoon advantage against Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in today’s matchup.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 7% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off in recent games; his 89.6-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 84.4-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rhys Hoskins in the 4th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Rhys Hoskins is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Zac Gallen throws from, Rhys Hoskins has a tough challenge today.

Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Rhys Hoskins today.

Batting from the same side that Zac Gallen throws from, William Contreras encounters a tough challenge in today’s game.

William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for William Contreras today.

William Contreras’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 92.8-mph mark last season has dropped to 84.2-mph.

William Contreras’s launch angle this season (0.4°) is significantly worse than his 5.9° figure last season.

Christian Yelich will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

From last season to this one, Christian Yelich’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 47.4% to 37.9%.

Christian Yelich has struggled to lift the ball lately, compiling a 2.7° launch angle in the past 14 days.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 20.3% underlying K%.

Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Freddy Peralta (37.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 GB hitters in Arizona’s projected lineup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s evaluation, Freddy Peralta’s overall pitching talent is in the 91st percentile out of all starters in the majors currently.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Arizona Diamondbacks today owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .318, which is quite a bit lower than their actual wOBA of .340 this year.

It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-luckiest offense in the league this year.

Freddy Peralta will “start” for Milwaukee Brewers in today’s matchup but will be treated as more of an opener and may not stay on the mound for more than a couple frames.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 13th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

In terms of his batting average, Geraldo Perdomo has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His .282 mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .249.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 16th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

Geraldo Perdomo has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .328 mark is inflated compared to his .298 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Gabriel Moreno is penciled in 7th in the batting order today.

Hitting from the same side that Freddy Peralta throws from, Gabriel Moreno will be in a tough position today.

Gabriel Moreno hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.

This season, Gabriel Moreno’s Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 6.6% last year to just 0% this year.

Jake McCarthy is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today’s game.

There has been a decrease in Jake McCarthy’s average exit velocity this year, from 84.2 mph last year to 82 mph now,Jake McCarthy’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last year to this one, falling from 44.6% to 16%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake McCarthy in the 6th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 7th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

Brice Turang hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Brice Turang in today’s matchup.

Over the last 7 days, Brice Turang has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power).

Garrett Mitchell is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.

When starting against a righty on the mound since the start of last season, Garrett Mitchell has been pulled from the game early 24% of the time.

Garrett Mitchell will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Garrett Mitchell’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off recently, decreasing from 5.6% on the season to 0% over the past week.

Posting a .257 BABIP since the start of last season, Corbin Carroll is positioned in the 11th percentile.

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