
ATL @ MIA





Todays Matchup Details
Todays Game is on Friday, September 20th
20/09/24 19:10:00 PM EST First Pitch
Positive Match Player Stats for Braves vs Marlins Matchup Today
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 96th percentile when estimating his home run talent.
Jake Burger is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.
Jake Burger will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.
Jake Burger has performed at a clip of 28.4 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 88th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Placing in the 91st percentile for power, Jake Burger has averaged 30.4 HRs per 600 plate appearances this year.
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Sean Murphy ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Over the past two weeks, Sean Murphy’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96.4-mph over the course of the season to 99-mph recently.
Over the past week, Sean Murphy’s 57.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.5%.
Despite posting a .287 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Sean Murphy has had some very poor luck given the .044 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .331.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Soler in the 97th percentile when assessing his home run ability.
Jorge Soler is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.
Over the last 14 days, Jorge Soler has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 12.2% to 25%.
Jorge Soler has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 100.3-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 90.4-mph mark.
In the last 14 days, Jorge Soler’s 28.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.5%.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Marcell Ozuna as baseball’s 19th-best home run hitter.
Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.
Over the last week, Marcell Ozuna’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 16% up to 21.4%.
Marcell Ozuna has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.6-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 92.2-mph EV.
Marcell Ozuna’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 43.5% to 49.1%.
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Matt Olson ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Matt Olson is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today’s game.
Matt Olson will have the handedness advantage against Valente Bellozo today.
Matt Olson may have the upper hand against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP.
Matt Olson has been unlucky this year, notching a .329 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .349 — a .020 deviation.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 84th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.
Jesus Sanchez is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.
Hitting from the opposite that Charlie Morton throws from, Jesus Sanchez will have an advantage today.
Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Jesus Sanchez will hold that advantage today.
Jesus Sanchez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.7-mph average to last year’s 90.3-mph figure.
Kyle Stowers will hold the platoon advantage over Charlie Morton in today’s game.
Kyle Stowers hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Kyle Stowers will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to boost all of his stats.
Kyle Stowers has made significant gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 12.7% seasonal rate to 25% in the past 7 days.
Kyle Stowers has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 100.1-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal average of 94.9-mph.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Whit Merrifield in the 83rd percentile when assessing his batting average skill.
Whit Merrifield has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .221 mark is a good deal lower than his .257 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
As it relates to plate discipline, Whit Merrifield’s talent is quite good, posting a 1.42 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 94th percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.
Michael Harris II has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (57% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.
Batting from the opposite that Valente Bellozo throws from, Michael Harris II will have the upper hand today.
Michael Harris II has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP.
Michael Harris II hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Ramon Laureano’s BABIP ability is projected in the 83rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Ramon Laureano is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today.
Ramon Laureano has strong power (81st percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (28.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Valente Bellozo is a pitch-to-contact type (24th percentile K%) — great news for Laureano.
Ramon Laureano has made big strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 12.9% seasonal rate to 30% in the past week’s worth of games.
Over the last 7 days, Ramon Laureano’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.2-mph over the course of the season to 103-mph recently.
Jonah Bride is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.
Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Jonah Bride will hold that advantage today.
Over the last 14 days, Jonah Bride’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.4-mph over the course of the season to 95.7-mph of late.
Placing in the 76th percentile, Jonah Bride sports a .326 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.
In terms of plate discipline, Jonah Bride’s talent is quite impressive, posting a 1.85 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 86th percentile.
Extreme flyball hitters like Orlando Arcia usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Valente Bellozo.
There has been a significant improvement in Orlando Arcia’s launch angle from last year’s 5.5° to 8.6° this year.
When it comes to power, Sean Murphy is ranked in the 79th percentile, having paced 21.9 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 80th percentile when assessing his home run skill.
Xavier Edwards is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.
Xavier Edwards will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.
In notching a .344 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Xavier Edwards is positioned in the 88th percentile.
Xavier Edwards has shown impressive plate discipline this year, grading out in the 93rd percentile with a 1.52 K/BB rate.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 90th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gio Urshela in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.
Over the past week, Gio Urshela’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4.3% up to 16.7%.
Gio Urshela has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 89.7-mph average to last season’s 87.4-mph EV.
Gio Urshela has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .238 figure is considerably lower than his .263 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xavier Edwards in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.
Over the past 7 days, Xavier Edwards’s 60% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 50.3%.
By putting up a .319 batting average this year, Xavier Edwards finds himself in the 98th percentile.
When it comes to his home run talent, Ramon Laureano ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.311) implies that Whit Merrifield has been unlucky this year with his .285 actual wOBA.
Valente Bellozo is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #21 HR venue in the league today.
Home field advantage typically bolsters pitcher stats in all categories, and Valente Bellozo will hold that advantage today.
The 10.1% Barrel% of the Atlanta Braves makes them the #2 squad in MLB this year by this stat.
Charlie Morton will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.
Otto Lopez hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Otto Lopez will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.
In the past 7 days, Otto Lopez’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.4% up to 15.4%.
Otto Lopez has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 97.5-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal EV of 92.7-mph.
Otto Lopez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, rising from 12.5% on the season to 23.1% in the last week’s worth of games.
Marcell Ozuna’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (18.9°) is quite a bit higher than his 15.9° angle last year.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 95th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.
Connor Norby is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.
Connor Norby will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which should improve all of his stats.
Connor Norby’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, rising from 25% on the season to 29.6% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
Connor Norby’s 94.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced metric to evaluate power) grades out in the 83rd percentile this year.
Gio Urshela has been unlucky this year, posting a .265 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .292 — a .027 discrepancy.
Charlie Morton has averaged 96.4 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, ranking in the 94th percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Soler in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Michael Harris II ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Compared to his seasonal average of 12.8°, Ramon Laureano has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 37.3° figure in the last week’s worth of games.
With a .370 Isolated Power (ISO) this year, Connor Norby grades out in the 94th percentile.
Negative Match Player Stats with Braves vs Marlins
Batting from the same side that Charlie Morton throws from, Jake Burger will not have the upper hand in today’s matchup.
Jake Burger pulls many of his flyballs (36.1% — 92nd percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
Jake Burger’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 97.3-mph average last year has decreased to 95.3-mph.
Jake Burger’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off lately; his 95.3-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 86.3-mph over the last 14 days.
Compared to his seasonal mark of 10.9°, Jake Burger’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls has dropped significantly in recent games (3.6° in the past 14 days).
Sean Murphy is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.
Valente Bellozo will hold the platoon advantage against Sean Murphy in today’s game.
In today’s matchup, Sean Murphy is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.8% rate (91st percentile).
Sean Murphy will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.
Sean Murphy has struggled with his Barrel%; his 15.9% rate last season has fallen to 9.6% this season.
Batting from the same side that Valente Bellozo throws from, Jorge Soler will not have the upper hand in today’s matchup.
Jorge Soler pulls many of his flyballs (35.3% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
Jorge Soler will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.
Hitting from the same side that Valente Bellozo throws from, Marcell Ozuna has a tough challenge in today’s game.
Marcell Ozuna pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.5% — 90th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Marcell Ozuna in today’s game.
Marcell Ozuna has been lucky this year, posting a .394 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .349 — a .045 deviation.
Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Matt Olson today.
There has been a decrease in Matt Olson’s average exit velocity this season, from 93.7 mph last year to 91.1 mph now, Matt Olson’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 91.1-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 85.5-mph in the past week.
Matt Olson’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off of late, falling from 13.6% on the season to 8.3% over the past 7 days.
In today’s matchup, Jesus Sanchez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39.2% rate (96th percentile).
Jesus Sanchez has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 12.2% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
Jesus Sanchez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off recently, falling from 11.6% on the season to 0% over the last two weeks.
With a 3.79 K/BB rate this year, Jesus Sanchez has demonstrated poor plate discipline, ranking in the 20th percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 24th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.
Kyle Stowers is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this matchup.
11% of the time that Kyle Stowers has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.
Sporting a 7.17 K/BB rate this year, Kyle Stowers has shown bad plate discipline, grading out in the 13th percentile.
Whit Merrifield is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.
Valente Bellozo will have the handedness advantage over Whit Merrifield in today’s matchup.
Whit Merrifield has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 4th-deepest RF fences today.
Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Whit Merrifield in today’s game.
Whit Merrifield’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off recently; his 87.1-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 69.5-mph in the past 7 days.
Playing on the road typically lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Michael Harris II in today’s matchup.
In the past week, Michael Harris II’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 10.6%.
Michael Harris II is in the 5th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (10.6% rate this year).
Michael Harris II has posted a .288 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 19th percentile.
Michael Harris II has displayed bad plate discipline this year, grading out in the 12th percentile with a 4.34 K/BB rate.
11% of the time that Ramon Laureano has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been pulled from the game early.
Valente Bellozo will hold the platoon advantage against Ramon Laureano in today’s matchup.
Ramon Laureano will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.
Ramon Laureano has exhibited bad plate discipline this year, grading out in the 17th percentile with a 5.89 K/BB rate.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonah Bride in the 21st percentile as it relates to his home run talent.
Hitting from the same side that Charlie Morton throws from, Jonah Bride will have a tough challenge in today’s matchup.
Jonah Bride pulls many of his flyballs (34.5% — 84th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Compared to his seasonal mark of 8.2°, Jonah Bride’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls has dropped significantly in recent games (4.6° in the past 14 days).
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (13.0) provides evidence that Jonah Bride has been very fortunate this year with his 18.8 actual HR/600.
Orlando Arcia is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card today.
Hitting from the same side that Valente Bellozo throws from, Orlando Arcia will be in a tough position in today’s game.
Orlando Arcia pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.5% — 84th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Orlando Arcia today.
Orlando Arcia has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.3-mph dropping to 82.9-mph in the last 7 days.
As it relates to his home run talent, Xavier Edwards ranks in the 1st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the plate, Xavier Edwards will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side against Charlie Morton in this game.
Xavier Edwards has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and will be challenged by baseball’s 8th-deepest LF fences today.
Xavier Edwards’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off recently; his 86.5-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 83.1-mph in the last two weeks.
In the past two weeks, Xavier Edwards’s 7.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.6%.
Gio Urshela is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.
Batting from the same side that Valente Bellozo throws from, Gio Urshela meets a tough challenge today.
Gio Urshela has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.4%) and will be challenged by the game’s 4th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Gio Urshela today.
Gio Urshela’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 86.1-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 79.4-mph over the past 7 days.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Orlando Arcia in the 8th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.
When estimating his home run talent, Whit Merrifield ranks in the 8th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Over the past two weeks, Xavier Edwards has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.
Xavier Edwards has been lucky this year, putting up a .348 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .298 — a .050 difference.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Valente Bellozo in the 10th percentile as it relates to his overall pitching skills.
Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Valente Bellozo is projected to throw 81 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 8th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.
The Atlanta Braves have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better the rest of the season, Valente Bellozo has a large reverse platoon split and will be disadvantaged squaring off against 7 same-handed bats today.
Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Valente Bellozo (39.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 GB hitters in Atlanta’s projected offense.
The 4th-weakest projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Miami Marlins.
It may be sensible to expect worse results for the Miami Marlins offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 8th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
Miami Marlins batters as a unit place 26th- in baseball for power this year when using their 7.2% Barrel%.
Placing lowest in baseball this year, Miami Marlins hitters collectively have compiled a 9° launch angle (an advanced stat to assess the ability to lift the ball for power).
Otto Lopez is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today.
Hitting from the same side that Charlie Morton throws from, Otto Lopez will not have the upper hand in today’s game.
Over the past week, Otto Lopez’s 23.1% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 40%.
Utilizing Statcast metrics, Otto Lopez grades out in the 18th percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 11.200.
Otto Lopez has compiled a .286 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 17th percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez in the 13th percentile when assessing his home run ability.
Charlie Morton will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Connor Norby today.
Connor Norby pulls many of his flyballs (33.7% — 78th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 8th-deepest LF fences today.
Connor Norby’s average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 85.4-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 83.1-mph over the last week.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Connor Norby’s true offensive skill to be a .303, indicating that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .038 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .341 wOBA.
When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Valente Bellozo in the 9th percentile among all SPs in MLB.
When it comes to his home run ability, Gio Urshela ranks in the 14th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
As it relates to his batting average, Ramon Laureano has been very fortunate this year. His .254 rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .237.
Jonah Bride has been lucky this year, compiling a .331 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .301 — a .030 deviation.
Jonah Bride’s maximum exit velocity (a reliable metric to study power) has been 105.9 mph this year, grading out in the 21st percentile.
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