ATL @ STL
Matchup Details
Todays Game is on Friday, July 11th
11/07/25 20:15:00 PM EST First Pitch
Positive Match Player Stats for Braves vs Cardinals Matchup Today
High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 90,°.
The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.7-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for bats.
Victor Scott II will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Grant Holmes in today’s matchup.
Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Victor Scott II will hold that advantage in today’s game.
Ranking in the 99th percentile for Sprint Speed at 30.05 ft/sec this year, Victor Scott II is quite fast.
Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.
Willson Contreras is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.
Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage today.
Extreme flyball bats like Nolan Arenado generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Grant Holmes.
Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage today.
Nolan Arenado has shown impressive plate discipline this year, checking in at the 86th percentile with a 1.51 K/BB rate.
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Matt Olson ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Matt Olson is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.
In comparison to his 91.3-mph average last year, Matt Olson’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 93.8 mph.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sean Murphy in the 94th percentile when assessing his home run talent.
Sean Murphy is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Sean Murphy ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Sean Murphy will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.
Jurickson Profar is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.
The switch-hitting Jurickson Profar will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Matthew Liberatore.
Jurickson Profar’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 14.4% to 27.3%.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.
Marcell Ozuna will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore today.
Based on Statcast data, Marcell Ozuna is in the 84th percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .351.
As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Ozzie Albies will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Matthew Liberatore in today’s game.
Extreme groundball hitters like Ozzie Albies tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Matthew Liberatore.
Ozzie Albies has been unlucky this year, posting a .271 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .315 — a .044 gap.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ronald Acuna Jr. ranks as the 5th-best hitter in the majors.
Ronald Acuna Jr. is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.
Ronald Acuna Jr. will have the handedness advantage against Matthew Liberatore today.
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Austin Riley ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Austin Riley is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.
Austin Riley will have the handedness advantage against Matthew Liberatore today.
When assessing his home run talent, Austin Riley ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Grant Holmes (42.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 GB hitters in St. Louis’s projected lineup.
Playing on the road typically weakens pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Grant Holmes in today’s matchup.
Grant Holmes has averaged 94.9 adjusted pitches per GS this year, grading out in the 92nd percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Grant Holmes in the 91st percentile when estimating his strikeout skill.
Grant Holmes has put up a 13.4% Swinging Strike rate this year, placing in the 91st percentile.
Grant Holmes has recorded a 27.6% K% this year, ranking in the 87th percentile.
Batting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Nick Allen will have an edge in today’s matchup.
Nick Allen hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.
Lars Nootbaar will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Grant Holmes today.
Nolan Gorman projects as the 19th-best home run hitter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Batting from the opposite that Grant Holmes throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an edge today.
Extreme groundball batters like Nolan Gorman tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Grant Holmes.
Nolan Gorman will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Pedro Pages (the Cardinals’s expected catcher today) profiles as a good pitch framer.
Given that flyball hitters struggle against flyball pitchers, Matthew Liberatore (43% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in the opposing club’s projected lineup.
Matthew Liberatore will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats in all categories.
Matthew Liberatore’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (61.4% this year) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
Pedro Pages has been unlucky this year, posting a .260 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .283 — a .023 deviation.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Michael Harris II’s true offensive talent to be a .319, implying that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .084 deviation between that mark and his actual .235 wOBA.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.
Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.
Hitting from the opposite that Grant Holmes throws from, Alec Burleson will have an advantage in today’s matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.
Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.
Brendan Donovan will hold the platoon advantage against Grant Holmes in today’s matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 76th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.
Masyn Winn is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.
Masyn Winn will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to boost all of his stats.
Negative Match Player Stats with Braves vs Cardinals
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Victor Scott II ranks in the 23rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Victor Scott II is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this game.
Victor Scott II has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
The Atlanta Braves outfield defense profiles as the 5th-best among every team today.
In notching a .291 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Victor Scott II is positioned in the 19th percentile for offensive ability.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Victor Scott II in the 18th percentile when estimating his home run talent.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Busch Stadium as the 6th-worst park in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs.
The #6 park in baseball for suppressing home runs to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium.
Home runs are generally less common at venues with deep fences, and Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest in MLB.
Grant Holmes will have the handedness advantage over Willson Contreras today.
Willson Contreras’s launch angle this season (10.4°) is considerably lower than his 14.1° figure last season.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 7th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.
Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.
Hitting from the same side that Grant Holmes throws from, Nolan Arenado faces a tough challenge in today’s matchup.
Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
The 2nd-deepest RF fences among all parks are found in Busch Stadium.
Matthew Liberatore will hold the platoon advantage over Matt Olson in today’s game.
Matt Olson will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.
Sean Murphy pulls many of his flyballs (36.4% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
Sean Murphy will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.
Sean Murphy’s footspeed has fallen off this year. His 25.28 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.55 ft/sec now.
Sean Murphy has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs this year; his 37.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal higher than his 25.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Sean Murphy has been very fortunate this year. His .336 mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .319.
Based on Statcast data, Sean Murphy ranks in the 22nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .233.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jurickson Profar in the 14th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.
Jurickson Profar pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.1% — 82nd percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jurickson Profar today.
Jurickson Profar’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 91.1-mph figure last year has dropped off to 85-mph.
Jurickson Profar has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .359 rate is quite a bit higher than his .343 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
Marcell Ozuna pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.7% — 79th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 8th-deepest LF fences today.
Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Marcell Ozuna in today’s matchup.
Marcell Ozuna has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 15.5% rate last year has lowered to 10.5% this year.
Marcell Ozuna’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 98.2-mph mark last season has dropped to 94.5-mph.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ozzie Albies in the 11th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.
Ozzie Albies is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today.
In today’s game, Ozzie Albies is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.5% rate (98th percentile).
Playing on the road typically diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ozzie Albies in today’s game.
Ozzie Albies has recorded a .286 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, placing in the 15th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Ronald Acuna Jr. in today’s matchup.
As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Ronald Acuna Jr. has experienced some positive variance this year. His .448 figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .378.
Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Austin Riley in today’s matchup.
Austin Riley has displayed poor plate discipline this year, ranking in the 14th percentile with a 4.39 K/BB rate.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s judgement, Grant Holmes’s overall pitching skill ranks in the 75th percentile among all starting pitchers in the majors currently.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Busch Stadium as the 4th-worst stadium in baseball for walks.
Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Grant Holmes must realize this, because he has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 64.8% of the time, checking in at the 94th percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Busch Stadium as the 4th-worst field in the game for strikeouts.
When assessing his home run talent, Nick Allen ranks in the 2nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Nick Allen is penciled in 9th in the batting order today.
This year, Nick Allen has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 35% of his appearances when starting against southpaw.
Extreme flyball bats like Nick Allen tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Matthew Liberatore.
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Nick Allen ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Nick Allen will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.
Grading out in the 21st percentile, Lars Nootbaar has put up a .266 BABIP this year.
Nolan Gorman is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.
Nolan Gorman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.7% — 87th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-deepest RF fences today.
Nolan Gorman has struggled with his Barrel%; his 16.7% rate last season has lowered to 11.2% this season.
Nolan Gorman’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 15th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
With 7 batters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Matthew Liberatore will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
Matthew Liberatore’s 2106-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 10th percentile among all starters.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pedro Pages in the 23rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.
Pedro Pages is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today’s game.
Grant Holmes will hold the platoon advantage against Pedro Pages in today’s matchup.
Pedro Pages has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences today.
Michael Harris II is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card today.
Batting from the same side that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Michael Harris II will have a disadvantage in today’s game.
Michael Harris II has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Extreme groundball batters like Michael Harris II tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Matthew Liberatore.
Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Michael Harris II today.
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.265) suggests that Alec Burleson has had positive variance on his side this year with his .290 actual batting average.
Alec Burleson is quite slow, placing in the 7th percentile in Sprint Speed at 25.12 ft/sec this year.
Today, Brendan Donovan is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.5% rate (83rd percentile).
Hitting from the same side that Grant Holmes throws from, Masyn Winn will have a disadvantage in today’s matchup.
Masyn Winn’s 5.3% Barrel% (a reliable stat to assess power) ranks in the 24th percentile this year.
Masyn Winn’s 89.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced metric to evaluate power) grades out in the 16th percentile this year.
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