Astros vs Red Sox match player stats | 2025 Friday, August 1st

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Astros vs Red Sox match player stats | 2025 Friday, August 1st

HOU @ BOS

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Matchup Details

Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox

Todays Game is on Friday, August 1st
01/08/25 19:10:00 PM EST First Pitch

Positive Match Player Stats for Astros vs Red Sox Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in the game for lefty batting average.

Wilyer Abreu will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown in today’s game.

Wilyer Abreu pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 96th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

Fenway Park ranks as the #3 venue in the majors for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Extreme flyball bats like Wilyer Abreu tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown.

Ceddanne Rafaela hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage today.

Ceddanne Rafaela has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 21.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is significantly deflated relative to his 25.7 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Ceddanne Rafaela has posted a .296 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year, checking in at the 75th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 82nd percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Fenway Park grades out as the #4 venue in baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Jacob Melton has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (82% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.

Among all stadiums, Fenway Park’s RF dimensions are the shallowest.

Because of Cooper Criswell’s large platoon split, Jacob Melton will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today.

Jacob Melton is quite toolsy, grading out in the 89th percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.94 ft/sec this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Masataka Yoshida will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown today.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Masataka Yoshida will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Masataka Yoshida ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Masataka Yoshida’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 92.1-mph now compared to just 88-mph then.

Roman Anthony’s BABIP ability is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Roman Anthony is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Roman Anthony will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Roman Anthony has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 77th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Roman Anthony will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

When assessing his home run talent, Christian Walker ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Christian Walker is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.

Christian Walker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.5% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences today.

Despite posting a .298 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Christian Walker has experienced some negative variance given the .028 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .326.

When estimating his home run ability, Trevor Story ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Trevor Story is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.

Trevor Story has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

Trevor Story will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

In the past 7 days, Trevor Story’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.7% up to 18.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 78th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Jose Altuve ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jose Altuve is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.7% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Compared to his seasonal average of 17°, Jose Altuve has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 21.8° figure in the past two weeks.

Jose Altuve has put up a .351 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 81st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Jose Altuve’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased lately, increasing from 42.7% on the season to 61.1% over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

The shallowest LF fences in the league are found in Fenway Park.

Carlos Correa has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 95.2-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Carlos Correa’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, rising from 40.9% on the season to 55.2% in the last two weeks.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Carlos Correa ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Despite posting a .309 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Carlos Correa has had some very poor luck given the .026 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .335.

Abraham Toro has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (61% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.

Abraham Toro hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Abraham Toro will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

In the last 7 days, Abraham Toro’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.7-mph over the course of the season to 98.8-mph in recent games.

Taylor Trammell has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (65% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

Taylor Trammell will have the handedness advantage against Cooper Criswell in today’s game… and even better, Criswell has a large platoon split.

Taylor Trammell has a ton of pop (76th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (28.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Cooper Criswell struggles to strike batters out (15th percentile K%) — great news for Trammell.

As it relates to his home run ability, Taylor Trammell ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Taylor Trammell has been hot lately, notching a a 14.8% Barrel% (an advanced standard to study power) in the past two weeks.

Jarren Duran’s BABIP talent is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jarren Duran is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Jarren Duran will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown in today’s matchup.

Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Jarren Duran will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Hunter Brown as the 17th-best SP in the league currently.

Hunter Brown has averaged 94.5 adjusted pitches per outing this year, grading out in the 92nd percentile.

It may be sensible to expect worse numbers for the Boston Red Sox offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Hunter Brown in the 94th percentile when it comes to his strikeout talent.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Romy Gonzalez, Trevor Story, Carlos Narvaez).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz as the 20th-best batter in Major League Baseball when assessing his batting average ability.

Yainer Diaz hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Yainer Diaz has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph to 93.2-mph over the last week.

Yainer Diaz’s launch angle this season (12.3°) is considerably higher than his 8.7° mark last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Yainer Diaz’s true offensive talent to be a .331, indicating that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .030 gap between that mark and his actual .301 wOBA.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Carlos Narvaez will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Carlos Narvaez has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph to 93.8-mph in the past two weeks.

Checking in at the 80th percentile, Carlos Narvaez sits with a .322 BABIP this year.

Negative Match Player Stats with Astros vs Red Sox

12% of the time that Wilyer Abreu has started against a northpaw this year, he has been pulled from the game early.

Fenway Park’s elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which often leads to lower offensive output.

This matchup is forecasted to have the most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

Wilyer Abreu’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined in recent games; his 93.8-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 88.2-mph in the last week.

Over the last two weeks, Wilyer Abreu’s 10% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.8%.

In the league, the 2nd-highest fences are at Fenway Park.

Ceddanne Rafaela is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game.

Hunter Brown will hold the platoon advantage against Ceddanne Rafaela in today’s matchup.

Ceddanne Rafaela has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 11.8% seasonal rate has lowered to 2.7% over the last two weeks.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jacob Melton ranks in the 13th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

32% of the time that Jacob Melton has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been pinch hit for.

Among every team on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox.

Jacob Melton will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Masataka Yoshida is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Masataka Yoshida has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 15% of the time.

Extreme flyball hitters like Masataka Yoshida usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Brown.

Typically, batters like Roman Anthony who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Hunter Brown.

In the past two weeks, Roman Anthony’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.2% down to 0%.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 3.7°, Roman Anthony has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-7.5°) in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Because of Cooper Criswell’s large platoon split, Christian Walker will be at a big disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate today.

Christian Walker will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 15th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Batting from the same side that Hunter Brown throws from, Trevor Story will have a tough challenge today.

Based on Statcast metrics, Trevor Story ranks in the 25th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .299.

In the past week, Trevor Story’s 25% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 42.4%.

Cooper Criswell will hold the platoon advantage against Jose Altuve in today’s game… and it’s an over-sized mismatch considering Criswell’s large platoon split.

Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jose Altuve in today’s game.

Carlos Correa has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (93% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this game.

Because of Cooper Criswell’s large platoon split, Carlos Correa will be at a massive disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically diminishes batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Carlos Correa in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Abraham Toro in the 23rd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

Abraham Toro has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 10% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.

As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the plate, Abraham Toro will bat from his bad side against Hunter Brown in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Trammell in the 12th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

This year, Taylor Trammell has been pinch hit for in 10% of his appearances when starting against righty hurler.

Taylor Trammell will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Taylor Trammell’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off recently; his 95-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 91.6-mph in the past 7 days.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Yainer Diaz (the Astros’s expected catcher today) grades out as a weak pitch framer.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 2nd-best stadium in baseball for batting average.

Hunter Brown will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Hunter Brown has gone to his secondary offerings 7% less often this year (40%) than he did last season (47%).

The #2 field in Major League Baseball for suppressing strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.

Given the 0.61 discrepancy between Hunter Brown’s 10.81 K/9 and his 10.21 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this year when it comes to strikeouts and ought to see negative regression the rest of the season.

Considering that flyball batters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Hunter Brown (48.7% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 3 FB hitters in the opposing team’s projected lineup.

Yainer Diaz is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

Cooper Criswell will have the handedness advantage over Yainer Diaz today… and it’s a particular mismatch considering Criswell’s large platoon split.

Carlos Narvaez is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this game.

Hunter Brown will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Narvaez in today’s matchup.

Carlos Narvaez has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 9% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past two weeks.

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