Astros @ Mariners Series Game 4 Matchup Details

Positives for the Houston Astros Series Game 4 Game Today

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Randy Arozarena is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.

Home runs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest among all major league parks.

Randy Arozarena will possess the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

Randy Arozarena’s 91.4-mph average exit velocity is among the best in MLB since the start of last season: 84th percentile.

Taylor Trammell will have the handedness advantage over George Kirby in today’s matchup.

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 11th-weakest infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.

Since the start of last season, Taylor Trammell has an average exit velocity of 91 mph, which is among the best in the league at the 81st percentile.

The #9 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.

Cole Young will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael Burrows today.

Cole Young pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Cole Young will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Compared to last year, Cole Young has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 13.4% to 20.6% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.P. Crawford in the 79th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Hitting from the opposite that Michael Burrows throws from, J.P. Crawford will have an edge in today’s matchup.

J.P. Crawford will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Sporting a .343 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, J.P. Crawford grades out in the 79th percentile for hitting ability.

As it relates to his home run ability, Dominic Canzone ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Batting from the opposite that Michael Burrows throws from, Dominic Canzone will have an advantage today.

Dominic Canzone will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which should boost all of his stats.

This season, Dominic Canzone has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.5 mph compared to last year’s 94.1 mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Carlos Correa is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today’s game.

Carlos Correa has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Carlos Correa’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 45.2% to 61.5%.

Christian Walker is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Christian Walker’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 15.4% to 22.2%.

Christian Walker has been hot in recent games, hitting his way to a .414 wOBA over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

Jose Altuve is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.

Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.8% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

Compared to last season, Jose Altuve has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 43% to 57.9% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Brendan Donovan is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Michael Burrows throws from, Brendan Donovan will have an advantage today.

Brendan Donovan has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Brendan Donovan will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

George Kirby has averaged 92.7 adjusted pitches per GS since the start of last season, grading out in the 82nd percentile.

Projected catcher Cal Raleigh profiles as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

T-Mobile Park projects as the #2 park in the majors for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cam Smith in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Cam Smith has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Cam Smith has made sizeable strides with his Barrel%, improving his 7.1% rate last year to 18.2% this season.

Placing in the 81st percentile, the hardest ball Cam Smith has connected with since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 113.9 mph — an advanced indication of underlying power ability.

When it comes to his home run talent, Christian Walker ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

J.P. Crawford has notched a .293 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, placing in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34° (the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs), J.P. Crawford and his 18.9% rank in the 90th percentile since the start of last season.

Yainer Diaz’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Yainer Diaz has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.4%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Based on Statcast data, Yainer Diaz is in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .272.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 10th-best hitter in baseball as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Julio Rodriguez is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.

Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Julio Rodriguez will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Posting a .347 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Julio Rodriguez has performed in the 81st percentile for offensive skills.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 3rd-best hitter in Major League Baseball.

Yordan Alvarez is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.

Yordan Alvarez will have the handedness advantage against George Kirby today.

Isaac Paredes is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.

Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (48% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Isaac Paredes ranks in the 100th percentile with a 24.3° launch angle, which is among the most flyball-inducing angles in MLB.

Grading out in the 85th percentile, Isaac Paredes sits with a .353 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 88th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Batting from the opposite that Michael Burrows throws from, Luke Raley will have the upper hand today.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Luke Raley will hold that advantage today.

In notching a .329 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Luke Raley grades out in the 76th percentile for offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 75th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Based on Statcast metrics, Dominic Canzone ranks in the 96th percentile for offensive skills per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .372.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Jeremy Pena is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.

T-Mobile Park ranks as the #9 venue in MLB for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Jeremy Pena pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.3% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Jeremy Pena’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 10.9% to 20.6%.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Julio Rodriguez ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Carlos Correa’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 12.4% to 17.9%.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s evaluation, George Kirby’s overall pitching talent is in the 89th percentile among all starting pitchers in the majors right now.

The underlying talent of the Houston Astros projected offense today (.323 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount weaker than their .355 wOBA this year.

It may be best to expect weaker performance for the Houston Astros offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the luckiest offense in the league this year.

With a 1.73 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Cole Young has shown good plate discipline, placing in the 81st percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Cam Smith ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Cal Raleigh as baseball’s 5th-best home run hitter.

Cal Raleigh is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.

The switch-hitting Cal Raleigh will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Michael Burrows.

Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (44% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Cal Raleigh will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Josh Naylor is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Michael Burrows throws from, Josh Naylor will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Josh Naylor pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.6% — 86th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Josh Naylor will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Josh Naylor’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 14.2% to 24.4%.

Mike Burrows has used his four-seamer 10% less often this season (29.1%) than he did last year (39.1%).

Mike Burrows’s 94.7-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 76th percentile among all starting pitchers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena as the 16th-best hitter in the game when estimating his batting average ability.

Joey Loperfido’s BABIP talent is projected in the 90th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Batting from the opposite that George Kirby throws from, Joey Loperfido will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Sporting a .260 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Joey Loperfido has performed in the 75th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 85th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Over the past week, Jose Altuve has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .403.

Joey Loperfido and his 16.5° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 79th percentile, among the highest in MLB since the start of last season.

Placing in the 91st percentile, Joey Loperfido has put up a .357 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isaac Paredes in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Cal Raleigh has recorded a .358 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, placing in the 88th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Negatives with the Seattle Mariners Series Game 4 Game Today

T-Mobile Park ranks as the #28 park in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which generally leads to worse offense.

Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report expects the 6th-coldest temperature on the slate today at 51°.

Michael Burrows will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Randy Arozarena in today’s game.

The Houston Astros outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest among all the teams in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Trammell in the 4th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Taylor Trammell is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this matchup.

Cole Young is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this game.

There has been a decrease in Cole Young’s average exit velocity this year, from 87.6 mph last year to 83.9 mph now,Since the start of last season, Cole Young’s 5.9% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 25th percentile among his peers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects T-Mobile Park as the worst stadium in the majors for right-handed batting average.

J.P. Crawford is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

The #1 stadium in the majors for suppressing batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Taylor Trammell in today’s matchup.

Taylor Trammell has done a poor job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls. His 8.5° angle is among the lowest in the game since the start of last season (25th percentile).

Dominic Canzone is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today’s game.

George Kirby will hold the platoon advantage over Carlos Correa in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Carlos Correa today.

Christian Walker’s BABIP talent is projected in the 12th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the same side that George Kirby throws from, Christian Walker faces a tough challenge today.

George Kirby will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Altuve today.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jose Altuve in today’s game.

Brendan Donovan’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 89.7-mph EV last year has decreased to 85.8-mph.

Todd Tichenor projects as a Hitters Umpire and is anticipated to be calling pitches today.

George Kirby’s four-seamer utilization has jumped by 12.6% from last season to this one (28.7% to 41.3%) .

Among all starters, George Kirby’s fastball spin rate of 2207 rpm ranks in the 25th percentile this year.

Considering the 1.15 gap between George Kirby’s 9.44 K/9 and his 8.29 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league since the start of last season when it comes to strikeouts and figures to negatively regress going forward.

Cam Smith is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this game.

George Kirby will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cam Smith today.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Christian Walker in today’s matchup.

When assessing his home run ability, J.P. Crawford ranks in the 20th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Yainer Diaz is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

Batting from the same side that George Kirby throws from, Yainer Diaz will have a disadvantage today.

Batting from the same side that Michael Burrows throws from, Julio Rodriguez meets a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Yordan Alvarez in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isaac Paredes in the 2nd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Batting from the same side that George Kirby throws from, Isaac Paredes will not have the upper hand today.

Dominic Canzone hits a large number of his balls with a launch angle that is “too high” (above 38°), which generally leads to easy pop flies. His 15% “too-high” rate since the start of last season is in the 22nd percentile.

Luke Raley is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today.

George Kirby will have the handedness advantage against Jeremy Pena in today’s matchup.

Jeremy Pena will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Jeremy Pena has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 7.8% rate last year has decreased to 0% this year.

Julio Rodriguez has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 10.1% rate last year has dropped to 2.7% this season.

Julio Rodriguez’s average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 91.9-mph average last season has fallen off to 86.4-mph.

Brendan Donovan’s launch angle this season (6.9°) is a considerable dropoff from his 12.3° mark last year.

T-Mobile Park has the 4th-shallowest right field fences among all stadiums.

Cam Smith will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Houston’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Cal Raleigh, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

J.P. Crawford has performed at a clip of 9.5 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, ranking in the 15th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Naylor in the 10th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Compared to average, Mike Burrows has been granted less leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, recording an -14.1 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Yainer Diaz (the Astros’s expected catcher in today’s game) is considered to be a weak pitch framer.

Mike Burrows will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

With a 0.61 deviation between Mike Burrows’s 9.00 K/9 and his 8.39 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the majors since the start of last season when it comes to strikeouts and figures to see negative regression in the future.

Cal Raleigh has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 19% rate last season has fallen to 6.5% this year.

Cal Raleigh’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 90.8-mph figure last year has dropped off to 82.3-mph.

Christian Walker has exhibited bad plate discipline since the start of last season, grading out in the 19th percentile with a 3.98 K/BB rate.

Joey Loperfido is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Joey Loperfido in today’s game.

Jose Altuve’s launch angle this season (5.1°) is a considerable dropoff from his 18° angle last season.

Josh Naylor’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 89.3-mph figure last season has decreased to 87-mph.

With a .134 wOBA in the past 14 days, Josh Naylor has been struggling at the plate.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Joey Loperfido ranks in the 23rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Isaac Paredes will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Since the start of last season, Isaac Paredes’s 5.4% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 21st percentile among his peers.

The #1 park in Major League Baseball for suppressing batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cal Raleigh in the 2nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Yainer Diaz in today’s game.

Randy Arozarena’s launch angle this season (4.8°) is a significant dropoff from his 13.4° mark last season.

The 5th-best projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the the Seattle Mariners.

The Seattle Mariners have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season

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