
ARI @ CIN






MLB Player match stats positives for Arizona at Cincinnati Wednesday Matchup
When estimating his home run ability, Christian Walker ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Christian Walker is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.
Great American Ball Park projects as the #1 ballpark in the game for right-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 82°.
Christian Walker has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .377 mark is quite a bit lower than his .378 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
In Major League Baseball, Great American Ball Park’s left field dimensions are the 6th-shallowest.
Stuart Fairchild will hold the platoon advantage over Jordan Montgomery today.
Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Stuart Fairchild will hold that advantage today.
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Corbin Carroll is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 6th-best venue in baseball for lefty batting average.
Batting from the opposite that Graham Ashcraft throws from, Corbin Carroll will have an advantage in today’s matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his home run talent.
Eugenio Suarez pulls many of his flyballs (35.2% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Extreme flyball hitters like Eugenio Suarez tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Graham Ashcraft.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Joc Pederson ranks as the 19th-best batter in MLB.
Joc Pederson is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.
The #1 park in MLB for boosting home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.
Joc Pederson will have the handedness advantage against Graham Ashcraft in today’s game.
Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Will Benson will hold that advantage in today’s game.
Since the start of last season, Will Benson’s flyball exit velocity (a reliable standard to measure power) grades out in the 84th percentile at 94.8 mph.
Will Benson ranks in the 83rd percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (47.3% rate since the start of last season).
Batting from the opposite that Graham Ashcraft throws from, Jake McCarthy will have an edge in today’s matchup.
Jake McCarthy has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Tyler Stephenson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.
Batting from the opposite that Jordan Montgomery throws from, Tyler Stephenson will have the upper hand today.
Tyler Stephenson has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
The Cincinnati Reds have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Will Benson, Stuart Fairchild).
It is scheduled that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Adam Hamari) in charge of the strike zone in today’s game.
Jordan Montgomery’s curveball rate has spiked by 7.2% from last year to this one (22.2% to 29.4%) .
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand will hold the platoon advantage against Jordan Montgomery today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.
Jonathan India is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today’s game.
The #6 park in the majors for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the best hitter in MLB when estimating his BABIP skill.
Elly De La Cruz has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (65% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 92nd percentile when assessing his batting average skill.
Using Statcast metrics, Gabriel Moreno is in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .283.
Ranking in the 94th percentile of THE BAT X’s Spray Score since the start of last season, Gabriel Moreno demonstrated exceptional skill in hitting the ball to all fields – an important skill for achieving a high batting average.
Tallying 99.4 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Graham Ashcraft places in the 100th percentile.
Graham Ashcraft is an extreme groundball pitcher (50% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in today’s game.
Because flyball pitchers hold a substantial edge over flyball batters, Graham Ashcraft and his 50% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position in this game squaring off against 2 opposing FB batters.
Graham Ashcraft will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his metrics in all categories.
As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Spencer Steer ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Spencer Steer is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.
Spencer Steer will hold the platoon advantage over Jordan Montgomery in today’s matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake McCarthy in the 85th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.
As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Jeimer Candelario will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side against Jordan Montgomery in today’s matchup.
Jeimer Candelario pulls many of his flyballs (35.5% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.
Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Jeimer Candelario will hold that advantage in today’s game.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ketel Marte in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.
Ketel Marte is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.
Ketel Marte pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.6% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Santiago Espinal will hold the platoon advantage over Jordan Montgomery in today’s game.
Santiago Espinal has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.
Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Santiago Espinal will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz in the 76th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.
Jordan Montgomery has tallied 17.5 outs per GS since the start of last season, grading out in the 88th percentile.
With a 3.66 FIP since the start of last season (Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA estimator that deals with the aspects of pitching most within the pitcher’s control), Jordan Montgomery falls in the 79th percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has shown favorable control since the start of last season, notching a 82nd percentile BB% of 6.1%.
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Christian Walker ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.
Will Benson is in the 82nd percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (18.6% rate since the start of last season).
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 81st percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.
Santiago Espinal’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
When assessing his home run skill, Christian Encarnacion-Strand ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Current MLB player match stat slumps with D-Backs vs Reds Matchup for Wednesday
Batting from the same side that Graham Ashcraft throws from, Christian Walker will have a disadvantage in today’s matchup.
Christian Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (37.9% — 75th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 11th-deepest CF fences today.
Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Christian Walker in today’s game.
Christian Walker is in the 4th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (35.7% rate since the start of last season).
Stuart Fairchild has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this matchup.
With a .223 wOBA in the last two weeks’ worth of games, Stuart Fairchild has been struggling at the plate.
Ranked in the 17th percentile, Stuart Fairchild’s average exit velocity of 85.9 mph ranks among the lowest in the game since the start of last season.
Ranking in the 11th percentile, Stuart Fairchild has notched a .337 Slugging Percentage (SLG) since the start of last season.
Grading out in the 7th percentile, Stuart Fairchild sits with a .210 batting average since the start of last season.
Corbin Carroll will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.
This season, there has been a decline in Corbin Carroll’s quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 30.05 ft/sec last year to 28.93 ft/sec currently.
A high launch angle standard deviation tends to lead to a lower rate of hits on balls in play, and Corbin Carroll’s 29.8° mark (14th percentile) since the start of last season indicates a weak hitting profile.
Grading out in the 16th percentile, Corbin Carroll has put up a .190 batting average this year.
Eugenio Suarez is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.
Batting from the same side that Graham Ashcraft throws from, Eugenio Suarez faces a tough challenge in today’s game.
Playing on the road typically lessens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Eugenio Suarez in today’s matchup.
Joc Pederson will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.
Will Benson’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Will Benson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (72% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup today.
Hitting from the same side that Jordan Montgomery throws from, Will Benson will have a tough matchup in today’s game.
Will Benson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
This season, there has been a decline in Will Benson’s quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 28.87 ft/sec last year to 28.31 ft/sec currently.
When it comes to his home run talent, Jake McCarthy ranks in the 8th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Jake McCarthy is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.
10% of the time that Jake McCarthy has started against a right-handed pitcher this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.
Typically, batters like Jake McCarthy who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Graham Ashcraft.
Jake McCarthy will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.
Tyler Stephenson’s 8.6° launch angle (a reliable metric to assess a batter’s ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the most groundball-inducing in baseball: 18th percentile.
Sporting a .364 Slugging Percentage (SLG) since the start of last season, Tyler Stephenson has performed in the 23rd percentile.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Gabriel Moreno (the D-Backs’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) is considered to be a weak pitch framer.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 8th-worst stadium in the league for strikeouts.
Playing on the road generally lowers pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jordan Montgomery in today’s game.
Jordan Montgomery wasn’t on when it came to striking batters out in his last start and accumulated 1 Ks.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 77th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
Placing in the 22nd percentile, Christian Encarnacion-Strand has put up a .294 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand has displayed poor plate discipline since the start of last season, placing in the 4th percentile with a 5.91 K/BB rate.
Jonathan India’s speed has dropped off this year. His 27.8 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 27.11 ft/sec now.
The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will bat from his weak side (0) today against Jordan Montgomery, Elly De La Cruz’s quickness has declined this season. His 30.53 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.87 ft/sec now.
Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (15.2) may lead us to conclude that Elly De La Cruz has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his 22.3 actual HR/600.
Elly De La Cruz has compiled a .294 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, placing in the 18th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
When it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34° (the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs), Elly De La Cruz and his 9.4% rank in the 1st percentile since the start of last season.
Gabriel Moreno is projected to bat 8th in the lineup today.
Graham Ashcraft will hold the platoon advantage against Gabriel Moreno in today’s matchup.
Gabriel Moreno hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
Typically, hitters like Gabriel Moreno who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Graham Ashcraft.
Playing on the road typically diminishes batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Gabriel Moreno in today’s matchup.
Great American Ball Park projects as the #1 ballpark in baseball for home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Great American Ball Park has the 4th-shallowest right field dimensions among all stadiums.
Graham Ashcraft’s cutter percentage has decreased by 5.8% from last season to this one (53% to 47.2%) .
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.246) suggests that Spencer Steer has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his .267 actual batting average.
Jake McCarthy’s footspeed has fallen off this year. His 29.96 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.99 ft/sec now.
Sporting a .274 BABIP since the start of last season, Joc Pederson has performed in the 21st percentile.
Jeimer Candelario is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.
Hitting the ball to all fields is a key talent for batting average that Jeimer Candelario has struggled with since the start of last season, as evidenced by his grading out in the 11th percentile on THE BAT X’s Spray Score.
As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the dish, Ketel Marte will be less advantaged while batting from his bad side against Graham Ashcraft today.
Ketel Marte will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.
Ketel Marte’s footspeed has decreased this year. His 27.52 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.8 ft/sec now.
Ketel Marte ranks in the 10th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (12.1% rate since the start of last season).
With a .068 Isolated Power (ISO) this year, Corbin Carroll finds himself in the 5th percentile.
With a .255 wOBA in the past 7 days, Corbin Carroll has been struggling at the plate.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Santiago Espinal in the 5th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.
Santiago Espinal is penciled in 7th in the lineup today.
Since the start of last season, Santiago Espinal’s 1% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 14th percentile among his peers.
Santiago Espinal’s 86.9-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable stat to study power) grades out in the 10th percentile since the start of last season.
Santiago Espinal is in the 21st percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (11.9% rate since the start of last season).
Stuart Fairchild has recorded a .284 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, ranking in the 15th percentile.
Sporting a 3.65 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Elly De La Cruz has demonstrated weak plate discipline, ranking in the 22nd percentile.
The Cincinnati Reds have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future, When estimating his home run skill, Gabriel Moreno ranks in the 11th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Graham Ashcraft will have the handedness advantage over Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in today’s matchup.
Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in today’s matchup.
Checking in at the 23rd percentile, the hardest ball Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 109.4 mph — an advanced indication of underlying power skill.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hits a large number of his balls with a launch angle that is “too high” (above 38°), which generally leads to lazy pop-up outs. His 14.5% “too-high” rate since the start of last season is in the 24th percentile.
Posting a .265 BABIP since the start of last season, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. grades out in the 13th percentile.
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (16.0) implies that Will Benson has been lucky since the start of last season with his 19.8 actual HR/600.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Joc Pederson’s true offensive skill to be a .352, indicating that he has been very fortunate this year given the .049 disparity between that mark and his actual .401 wOBA.
Tyler Stephenson’s quickness has dropped off this season. His 26.91 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.4 ft/sec now.
Graham Ashcraft has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts this year, putting up a 7.79 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.25 — a 0.54 K/9 deviation.
By putting up a .269 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Santiago Espinal has performed in the 6th percentile.
When it comes to his home runs, Spencer Steer has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His 20.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 16.9.
Graham Ashcraft turned in a great performance in his previous start and gave up 0 ER.
Elly De La Cruz has been lucky this year, compiling a .394 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .316 — a .078 disparity.
D-Backs vs Reds Match Player Stats Wednesday May 8th Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds Game Predictions, Players odds, Wednesday lines and Betting Trends
D-Backs vs Reds match player stats Wednesday, May 8th pre matchup. Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds player predictions
