**LSU at South Carolina**
-As of Thursday morning, most books had LSU (1-1 straight up, 0-2 against the spread) listed as a seven-point road favorite for Saturday’s noon Eastern showdown at South Carolina. The total spent some time at 52 points late Sunday but had shifted down to 49. The Gamecocks were +220 on the money line.
-The line moved from LSU -7 to -6.5 late Thursday night at some spots before the others adjusted early Friday morning. By late Friday, most shops had LSU at -6 (and Caesars was at -5.5) with the total down to 48 points.
-After a shaky 23-19 win over Old Dominion in its opener, South Carolina (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) pounded Kentucky 31-6 as a 9.5-point road underdog last week. Nick Emmanwori had a team-best seven tackles and his pick-six early in the fourth quarter to put the game on ice. LB Debo Williams had six tackles and two tackles for loss. Redshirt freshman QB LaNorris Sellers looked much sharper in his second career start, completing 10-of-14 passes for 166 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. Rocket Sanders had 54 rushing yards and one TD on 13 carries.
-True freshman DE Dylan Stewart and Ga. Tech transfer DE Kyle Kennard have been dynamite in their first two career appearances for the Gamecocks. Stewart has six tackles, 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and a pair of QB hurries, but that doesn’t even do it justice. He’s drawn penalties on USC’s opponents, and he beat triple teams multiple times at UK last week. Kennard has recorded five tackles, 4.5 TFL’s, 3.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and one QB hurry.
-LSU dropped a 27-20 decision vs. USC in Week 1 out in Las Vegas. The Tigers lost outright as four-point favorites to lose their opener for the fifth consecutive season. The 47 combined points fell ‘under’ the 66-point total. QB Garrett Nussmeier played well in the losing effort, completing 30-of-39 passes for 308 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. RB John Emery had 61 rushing yards on 10 attempts before going down with a season-ending injury.
-LSU never threatened to cover the spread in last week’s 44-21 win over Nicholls as a 45-point home ‘chalk.’ The Tigers extended their lead to nine points three different times in the first half, only to see the Colonels answer and trim the deficit back to two in each instance. They finally took their first double-digit lead with 6:43 left in the third quarter on Nussmeier’s seven-yard TD pass to Kyren Lacy. Nussmeier connected on 27-of-37 throws for 302 yards and six TDs without an interception. Lacy had five catches for 65 yards and three TDs.
-LSU WR Chris Hilton is ‘questionable’ (ankle) again this week. Hilton has missed the Tigers’ first two games. He had 13 catches for 225 yards and two TDs in 2023.
-South Carolina is 4-4 ATS in eight games as a home underdog during Shane Beamer’s tenure.
-LSU is 2-4 ATS in six games as a road favorite during his three-year tenure at LSU. He’s also 1-2 ATS in three games as a favorite on neutral fields, making the Tigers 3-6 ATS in nine games as ‘chalk’ outside or Baton Rouge on Kelly’s watch.
-Kickoff is scheduled for noon Eastern on ABC.
PREDICTION: I’m on South Carolina +7 for one unit.
**Alabama at Wisconsin**
-As of late Friday, most books had Alabama (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) installed as a 16-point road favorite with a total of 49 or 49.5. The Badgers were +525 to +575 on the money line.
-Wisconsin (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) has started the season with back-to-back non-covering home wins over Western Michigan (28-14) and South Dakota (27-13). New QB Tyler Van Dyke, a transfer from Miami, has completed 38-of-63 passes (60.3%) for 406 yards and one TD without an interception. RB Chez Mellusi has 134 rushing yards and three TDs, but he’s averaging merely 3.8 yards per carry.
-Wisconsin has only been a home underdog twice in the last decade, going 2-0 ATS. The Badgers lost a 24-10 decision to Ohio St. last year as 14.5-point home ‘dogs. Back in 2016, they lost 30-23 to the Buckeyes as 10-point home ‘dogs.
-The ‘under’ is 2-0 for the Badgers with their two games producing combined scores of 42 and 40 points.
-Alabama thumped Western Kentucky 63-0 as a 34-point home favorite in Kalen DeBoer’s debut for the Crimson Tide. However, DeBoer’s bunch was locked into a 60-minute battle last week despite the misleading final score in its 42-16 win over South Florida. The Bulls never trailed by more than eight points until Jalen Milroe connected with true freshman WR Ryan Williams on a 43-yard TD pass with 5:50 remaining.
-USF still covered the spread as a 30.5-point road underdog despite Alabama’s 21-0 run in the last 5:50 of the fourth quarter. The 58 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 64.5-point total. The Bulls had a first-and-goal opportunity trailing 21-13 with less than seven minutes left. However, Alex Golesh decided to kick a 22-yard field goal with 6:45 remaining instead of going for it on fourth and goal from the ‘Bama 5.
-Milroe accounted for four TDs against USF, throwing two TD passes without a pick and rushing for a pair of scores. He has completed 24-of-36 passes (66.7%) for 399 yards and five TDs without an interception. He also has 81 rushing yards and four TDs on 22 attempts for a 3.7 YPC average.
-Williams, the five-star freshman, has looked outstanding through two games, catching six balls for 207 yards and three TDs.
-Alabama RB Jam Miller had 140 rushing yards and one TD on 15 carries vs. USF. He had 54 rushing yards and one TD on five totes vs. WKU.
-Alabama is 4-8 ATS in its 12 games as a double-digit road favorite since the start of the 2021 campaign.
-FOX will have the telecast at noon Eastern.
PREDICTION: Hard pass for me.
**Boston College at Missouri**
-As of Friday morning, most spots had Missouri (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) as a 16-point road favorite with a total of 54. The Eagles were +525 to +550 on the money line. By late Friday afternoon, however, the number was down to -14.5 with the total in the 53 to 54 range.
-Missouri has coasted to easy home wins over Murray St. (51-0 as a 50.5-point favorite) and Buffalo (38-0 as a 32-point ‘chalk’). The ‘under’ is 2-0 after last week’s 38 combined points dropped South of the 51.5-point total.
-Missouri QB Brady Cook has completed 48-of-67 passes (71.6%) for 456 yards and one TD with one interception. He has 84 rushing yards and three TDs, averaging 9.3 YPC. WR Theo Wease has 16 receptions for 179 yards, while Luther Burden has seven catches for 64 yards and one TD. Wease and Burden are both listed as ‘probable’ for BC after leaving last week’s win over Buffalo.
-Missouri TE Brett Norfleet missed the win over Buffalo with a shoulder injury and is listed as ‘questionable.’ Norfleet had one catch for four yards vs. Murray St. In 2023 as a true freshman, Norfleet had 18 catches for 197 yards and three TDs.
-Boston College (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) began Bill O’Brien’s tenure with a 28-13 win at FSU as a 16.5-point road underdog in a standalone game on Monday night of Week 1.
-O’Brien’s team blanked Duquesne 56-0 as a 35.5-point home favorite last week. QB Thomas Castellanos led the way by completing 9-of-10 passes for 234 yards and four TDs without an interception. Treshaun Ward had 55 rushing yards and one TD on eight attempts, and he also had a 30-yard TD reception.
-Boston College is 25-15-1 ATS in its last 41 games as a road underdog.
-Missouri is 2-0 ATS as a home favorite this year, but the Tigers have struggled to a 6-10-1 ATS mark in 17 games as home favorites on Eli Drinkwitz’s watch.
-Kickoff in Columbia is scheduled for 12:45 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network.
PREDICTION: Another pass for me.
**UAB at Arkansas**
-As of Wednesday night, most shops had Arkansas (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) listed as a 24-point home favorite with a total of 60.5. There were a few offshore spots that had the Razorbacks at -24.5. They were down to -22.5 or -23 by late Friday afternoon, though, and the total had ticked up slightly to 61 points. The Blazers were +1300 (or 13/1) on the money line at the Westgate SuperBook and South Point.
-Arkansas looked really good offensively and QB Taylen Green looks like a dude that’s going to win a lot of games for Sam Pittman this year. However, the Razorbacks somehow found a way to lose 39-31 at Oklahoma St. in double overtime last week. The Hogs still covered the spread as 10-point road underdogs, as Pittman improved to 10-3 ATS in 13 games as road underdogs during his tenure. The 70 combined points went ‘over’ the 60.5-point total on Kyle Ramsey’s 44-yard field goal to force OT on the final play of regulation.
-Bobby Petrino’s offense produced 33 first downs and 648 yards of total offense. Green connected on 26-of-45 passes for 416 yards and one TD with one interception. The transfer from Boise St. added 61 rushing yards on 18 attempts. RB Ja’Quinden Jackson had 149 rushing yards and three TDs against the Cowboys, while WR Andrew Armstrong hauled in 10 receptions for 164 yards. Isaiah Sategna had four catches for 78 yards, but he muffed a punt return that gave Oklahoma St. great field position and ended up being a crucial mistake.
-Arkansas scored TDs on its first seven drives of the first half to take a 49-0 lead en route to a 70-0 win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff in Week 1.
-UAB (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) won its opener 41-3 over Alcorn St. as a 29-point home ‘chalk,’ but Trent Dilfer’s team got throttled 32-6 at ULM last week as an 11-point road favorite.
-The ‘under’ is 2-0 for UAB.
-The SEC Network will have the broadcast at 4:15 p.m. Eastern.
PREDICTIONS: I’m taking Arkansas to go ‘over’ its Team Total of 41.5 points for one unit, and I’m also on the Hogs -13.5 in the first half for one unit.
**Texas A&M at Florida**
-As of early Wednesday morning, most books had Texas A&M (1-1 straight up, 0-2 against the spread) listed as a four or 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 46.5 or 47. The Gators were +160 on the money line. By Friday morning, however, the Aggies were -3.5 and the total was down to 45.5 or 46 points. UF was +140 to +145 to win outright.
-Florida (1-1 SU, 0-1-1 ATS) got trounced by Miami 41-17 in its opener at The Swamp. It was just an exclamation point on how everything has gone since the day Billy Napier arrived in Gainesville. It was a horrible hire then, and it’s certainly in the running for one of the worst in SEC football history.
-Sure, Napier could flip that script with a win in the SEC opener, but all that would do is delay the inevitable. Like I’ve said way too often, every decision and move Napier has made during his tenure has been an unmitigated disaster. Right on cue, he’s planning on starting veteran QB Graham Mertz ahead of true freshman QB DJ Lagway vs. Texas A&M.
-Mertz was very solid for the Gators last year, connecting on 72.9 percent of his passes for 2,903 yards with a 20/3 TD-INT ratio. He sustained a concussion vs. Miami and had to sit out last week’s 45-7 win over Samford.
-In Mertz’s absence, Lagway, the five-star true freshman from Texas, completed 18-of-25 throws for 456 yards and three TDs without a pick. WR Eugene ‘Tre’ Wilson had six catches for 141 yards and one TD, while WR Elijah Badger had three receptions for 123 yards. WR Aidan Mizell had a 41-yard TD catch and Tank Hawkins had a 36-yard TD reception.
-The biggest news from UF’s release of the SEC injury report on Wednesday was the mention of Wilson as ‘questionable.’ As of Saturday morning, Wilson was being dubbed as a game-time decision. Veteran safety Asa Turner is ‘out,’ while CB Devin Moore is ‘questionable.’
-Texas A&M QB Conner Weigman and LB Scooby Williams are both listed as ‘questionable’ with undisclosed issues. Weigman has started both games for the Aggies, completing 23-of-44 passes (52.3%) for 225 yards and two TDs with a pair of interceptions. He has an 18/4 career TD-INT ratio. Williams, a transfer from Florida, had five tackles and one TFL before missing last week’s win vs. McNeese.
-Texas A&M safety Trey Jones is ‘out’ at UF due to an undisclosed injury. The transfer from Central Michigan has contributed seven tackles and one PBU in his first two games for the Aggies. Jones played at CMU from 2019-23, and he has recorded 195 career tackles, 9.5 TFL’s, 7 PBU, three interceptions, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery.
-Texas A&M dropped a 23-13 decision to Notre Dame as a three-point home favorite in Week 1. The Aggies responded with a 52-10 win over McNeese as 47.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Le’Veon Moss led the way against the Cowboys with 84 rushing yards and two TDs on nine carries, while RB Amari Daniels added 75 rushing yards and two TDs on 12 attempts.
-When these teams met in College Station in 2022, Florida went into Kyle Field and captured a 41-24 win as a 1.5-point road underdog.
-Kickoff is at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
PREDICTION: I’ll pass.
**Georgia at Kentucky**
-As of Wednesday morning, most spots had Georgia (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) installed as a 24-point road favorite with a total of 45. The Wildcats had +1400 (or 14/1) odds at Circa. By Friday afternoon, though, most books had UGA down to -22.
-UGA owns a pair of wins over Clemson (34-3) in Atlanta and Tennessee Tech (48-3) in Athens. True freshman RB Nate Frazier has 111 rushing yards, 1 TD and a 6.5 YPC average through two games. QB Carson Beck has completed 41-of-58 passes (70.7%) for 520 yards and seven TDs without an interception.
-After being suspended for the win over Clemson, Florida transfer RB Trevor Etienne had 78 rushing yards on just five totes in his UGA debut last week.
-Georgia is 20-11 ATS in 31 games as a road favorite during Kirby Smart’s nine-year tenure.
-Kentucky (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) beat up on So. Miss 31-0 as a 24.5-point home favorite in its opener two weeks ago, but the Wildcats got clobbered 31-6 as 9.5-point home ‘chalk’ vs. South Carolina last week. QB Brock Vandagriff hit on only 3-of-10 passes for 30 yards and one interception before being replaced.
-UGA has won 14 games in a row over Kentucky, but the ‘Cats are 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings.
-The forecast in Lexington is calling for 5-10 mile per hour winds and a low temperature of 61 degrees at Kroger Field on Saturday night.
-Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
PREDICTION: I’m on UGA’s Team Total to go ‘over’ 33.5 points for 1.5 units.
**Ole Miss at Wake Forest**
-Most books opened Ole Miss (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) as a 23.5-point road favorite, but the number moved from -22 to -21.5 late Thursday. By Friday afternoon, it was down to -20.5 and even -20 at South Point. The total has mostly stayed at 64 points all week. The Demon Deacons are +900 on the money line.
-Wake Forest (1-1 SU, 0-1-1 ATS) beat up on North Carolina A&T 45-13 as a 33.5-point home favorite in its opener. The 58 combined points went ‘over’ the 50.5-point total. QB Hank Bachmeier completed 18-of-28 passes for 263 yards and three TDs without an interception in his Demon Deacons’ debut. RB Demond Claiborne had 135 rushing yards and one TD on 17 attempts, while WR Taylor Morin had six catches for 100 yards. Donovon Greene had three receptions for 72 yards and one TD. WR Deuce Alexander added five catches for 69 yards and one TD.
-Wake Forest had leads of 17-3 and 20-10 before going to halftime with a 20-17 advantage vs. Virginia as a one-point home underdog. Bachmeier’s three-yard TD pass to Greene with 7:40 left in the third quarter extended Wake’s lead to 27-17. Matthew Dennis added a 26-yard field goal for a 13-point lead with 2:10 remaining in the third. But with 10:37 left, UVA QB Anthony Colandrea threw a 24-yard scoring strike to Trell Harris to trim the deficit to 30-24. Then with 2:07 remaining, the Cavaliers went ahead for good on a one-yard TD run by Grady Brosterhous. They held on for a 31-30 come-from-behind win, as the 61 combined points elevated ‘over’ the 55.5-point tally.
-Ole Miss has trounced Furman by a 76-0 count and beaten Middle Tennessee 52-3. The Rebels have covered the number as double-digit home favorites by 38 combined points. The ‘over’ hit in Week 1, but the 55 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 61.5-point total last week.
-Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart has completed 47-of-54 throws (87.0%) for 795 yards and six TDs without an interception. He also has a pair of rushing TDs. RB Henry Parrish has a team-best 205 rushing yards and four TDs, averaging 9.3 YPC. RB Matt Jones has 100 rushing yards and three TDs with a 7.1 YPC average. WR Tre Harris has 17 catches for 309 yards and two TDs, and Antwane ‘Juice’ Wells has eight receptions for 148 yards and two TDs. TE Caden Prieskorn has caught six balls for 125 receiving yards and one TD.
-Ole Miss is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games as a road favorite. The Rebels are 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games as double-digit road ‘chalk,’ including a 42-0 win at Ga. Tech, a 52-28 win at Vandy and a 17-7 win at Mississippi St.
-The CW Network will have the telecast at 7:30 p.m. Eastern.
PREDICTIONS: I think you can probably bet Ole Miss any way you want to – in the first quarter, the first half, for the game and its Team Totals ‘over’ in the first half and for the game. However, that’s putting a lot of eggs in one basket, and I don’t want to do that in the Rebels’ first road assignment of the year. But I’m still going to invest with multiple plays on Lane Kiffin’s squad. Let’s go with Ole Miss -11.5 in the first half for one unit and 1.5 units on the Rebels’ -20 (South Point) for the game.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-Auburn has benched QB Payton Thorne and will start redshirt freshman Hank Brown in Saturday’s home game vs. New Mexico. As of late Friday, the Tigers had moved from -28 down to -26 at a lot of spots. Brown appeared in AU’s season-opening win over Alabama A&M, completing 3-of-5 passes for 96 yards and two TDs without an interception. Even though we aren’t getting the best of the number, I’ll go with the Lobos for 0.5 units at +26.5 (Westgate SuperBook). UPDATE: New Mexico had travel issues getting to Auburn, something I didn’t notice until after declaring a one-half unit play on the Lobos.
-DraftKings has Tennessee installed as a four-point road favorite at Oklahoma in Week 4. The book also has Auburn as a 3.5-point home ‘chalk’ vs. Arkansas. We’ll see how these teams look this weekend and what injuries occur, but my current leans would be to the Vols at -4 and Arkansas +3.5.
-Other Week 4 look-ahead spreads at DraftKings include Michigan -3 vs. USC, Utah -1.5 at Oklahoma St., Colorado -3 vs Baylor, Iowa -3.5 at Minnesota, Clemson -12.5 vs NC St. and Nebraska -8 vs. Illinois (on Friday).
-Check out this week’s edition of Bets & Ballgames with Edwards & Greeson for Southeastern16, as Jay Greeson and I discuss the Good, Bad & Ugly from Week 2 in the SEC and give our thoughts on each Week 3 contest.
-South Carolina AD Ray Tanner announced his resignation today. He’ll remain the AD until a new one is found and then move into a senior advisory role. This could be an interesting development as it pertains to Shane Beamer.
-Vandy (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) will play its first road game Saturday night at Georgia St. The Commodores have been double-digit road favorites most of the week, but they moved to -9.5 on Friday. The total is 44.5 points. Diego Pavia has given Vandy fans hope. The New Mexico St. transfer QB has completed 22-of-29 passes (75.9%) for 273 yards and two TDs without an interception. Pavia also has a team-high 155 rushing yards and two TDs.