Vanderbilt enjoyed a winning season and won a bowl game for the first time since 2013 last year in Clark Lea’s third season on the job.
What was different in 2024 compared to the 10 previous seasons since James Franklin left for Penn State after a spectacular three-year run in Nashville? Diego Pavia.
Indeed, Pavia is a difference maker. The former New Mexico St. QB didn’t waste any time in becoming a program legend, leading the Commodores to a thrilling 34-27 win over Va. Tech in overtime as 13.5-point home underdogs in Week 1.
Pavia promptly sparked Vandy to a 17-0 lead over the Hokies with scores on the first three drives. On the team’s second possession, he ran for a first down on a fourth-and-one play before connecting with Quincy Skinner for a 14-yard touchdown pass on third and nine.
Va. Tech stormed back, however, taking a 27-20 advantage with 4:21 remaining when Kyron Drones found a streaking Ali Jennings for a 62-yard TD pass. In previous seasons, Vandy probably would’ve folded.
Not this time around. Pavia directed a six-play, 70-yard drive by rushing for 15 yards on three attempts and completing all three of his throws, including an eight-yard scoring strike to Sedrick Alexander to tie the game with 1:51 left.
After receiving the ball in OT, Pavia threw five yards to tight end Eli Stowers, another transfer from New Mexico St., before rushing for five yards and a first down. Following an 11-yard pass to Alexander that gave the ‘Dores a first-and-goal opportunity, Pavia scored on a four-yard TD run.
Five plays later, Vandy got a stop on fourth down to seal the victory.
Pavia completed 12-of-16 passes for 190 yards and two TDs without an interception, and he also had 104 rushing yards and one TD on 26 carries.
In the course of 60 minutes of football, it became clear that Lea’s trip to Las Cruces to interview then-New Mexico St. offensive coordinator Tim Beck in December of 2023 was a career-altering move for him and a game changer for the floundering program.
Jerry Kill had just completed his second season as head coach at New Mexico St., and he drove his OC to a Las Cruces hotel to interview with Lea. Kill told Lea at the meeting that he wasn’t sure if he’d be able to coach a third year for the Aggies due to health concerns.
Kill had advised Beck to take the job if it was offered by Lea, and he did so on Dec. 22. Kill stepped down at New Mexico St. one day later. Lea ended up hiring three other NMSU assistants and eventually was able to bring in Kill as his chief consultant and senior offensive advisor.
After Kill left the Aggies, Pavia entered the transfer portal and initially committed to Nevada. But Kill persuaded him to come to Vanderbilt, and he did so last June. Ex-NMSU tight end Stowers came along as well.
After the win over the Hokies, Vandy thumped Alcorn St., 55-0. However, the Commodores got tripped up the following week in a 36-32 loss at Georgia St. They had overcome a 29-17 deficit with less than three minutes left to take the lead on Alexander’s one-yard TD run with 1:14 remaining.
But with 15 seconds left, Ga. St. QB Christian Veilleux connected with Ted Hurst for a 25-yard scoring strike that proved to be the game winner.
Vandy was an 18.5-point road underdog at Missouri in Week 4. After trailing 13-10 at halftime, the Tigers scored the first 10 points of the third quarter on a 54-yard field goal from Blake Craig and a three-yard TD run by Marcus Carroll.
Lea’s team answered with a four-yard TD run from AJ Newberry that capped an eight-play, 80-yard drive to knot the score at 20-20 with 21 seconds left in the third quarter.
Craig missed FGAs from 40 and 46 yards out in the fourth quarter, and Vandy kicker Brock Taylor couldn’t connect on a 50-yarder with 3:06 remaining. The ‘Dores opened the first overtime with the ball, as a 15-yard run by Pavia set up a two-yard TD pass from the star signal caller to fullback Gabe Fisher.
Trailing 27-20, Mizzou countered with a 25-yard TD pass from Brady Cook to Luther Burden. Then in the second OT, the Tigers went in front 30-27 on Craig’s 37-yard field goal.
On a second-and-eight play from Mizzou’s 23, Pavia ran for 12 yards and a first down. But two plays later, WR Junior Sherrill was flagged 15 yards for offensive pass interference. On second and 28 from Mizzou’s 30, Pavia found Sherrill for a 17-yard gain.
When Pavia’s third-down pass fell incomplete, Taylor missed a 31-yard FG. After a 2-0 start, Vandy had lost back-to-back heartbreakers and had top-ranked Alabama coming to Music City after its open date.
On the same day of Vandy’s gut-wrenching defeat in Columbia, Alabama was enjoying its open date ahead of a home game vs. Georgia. The Crimson Tide ended up beating Georgia in a 41-34 thriller, setting up a vintage letdown spot.
Vandy had lost all 60 times it had faced the nation’s #1 team in program history. Back in 1996, the ‘Dores were 44-point home underdogs vs. Steve Spurrier’s 9-0 squad that would go on to win the national title. UF was given a major scare before surviving in a 28-21 win.
Vandy closed as a 23-point home underdog to the Tide, but the ‘Dores took their opening drive 75 yards in 10 plays with Alexander scoring on a seven-yard TD run. Three plays later, Randon Fontenette intercepted Jalen Milroe and returned it 29 yards for a TD to give his team a 13-0 advantage.
Vandy never trailed. After Taylor’s 51-yard field goal gave the ‘Dores a 23-7 lead, Alabama responded with 14 unanswered points, as Milroe’s 14-yard TD run cut Vandy’s lead to 23-21.
After both teams exchanged punts, Vandy was facing a fourth-and-one situation at ‘Bama’s 36. Lea opted to go for it and called a play-action pass. His confidence in Pavia paid off, as his QB threw a perfect dime with touch to hit Sherrill in stride for a 36-yard scoring strike.
‘Bama answered with Milroe finding Ryan Williams for a 58-yard TD pass, but Vandy got a 33-yard field goal from Taylor to cap a nine-play, 60-yard drive to extend its lead to 33-28 with 10:35 remaining. When Milroe quickly hit completions for 20 and 16 yards to advance the Tide to Vandy’s 39, it appeared as if the momentum was shifting.
That changed on the next play, though, as Vandy’s Yilanan Ouattara recovered a Milroe fumble. Then the ‘Dores went 53 yards in seven plays with Pavia hitting Kamrean Johnon for a six-yard TD pass for a 40-28 lead with 5:07 left.
Alabama responded with an eight-play, 75-yard drive to cut the deficit to 40-35 with 2:46 remaining on a two-yard TD run by Williams. Vandy was able to run out the clock, though, to complete the biggest win in program history.
The enormous victory set up a classic flat spot for Vandy the following week at Kentucky. Nevertheless, the ‘Dores captured a 20-13 win as 13-point road underdogs, hooking up money-line supporters with a +400 payout.
After beating Ball St. 24-14 to improve to 5-2, Vandy gave Texas fits but came up on the short end of a 27-24 decision as a 17-point home underdog. In bounce-back mode at Auburn on Nov. 2, Lea’s team became bowl eligible with a 17-7 win at Auburn as a 7.5-point road underdog, hooking up money-line backers with a +260 return.
With the victory, Pavia and Kill improved to 3-0 vs. Hugh Freeze. Back in 2022, Kill’s Aggies went to Liberty as 24.5-point road underdogs and dealt out a 49-14 shellacking. Pavia completed 16-of-21 passes for 214 yards and three TDs without an interception. He also had 125 rushing yards and three TDs on 20 attempts in a breakout performance.
Then in 2023, NMSU went into Jordan-Hare Stadium as a 26-point road underdog and emerged with a 31-10 victory at Auburn. Pavia balled out against Freeze again, connecting on 19-of-28 throws for 201 yards and three TDs without a pick. He added 35 rushing yards on eight carries.
Vandy ran out of gas in its last three games, including a pair of home losses vs. South Carolina and vs. Tennessee and a 28-21 setback at LSU as a 9.5-point road underdog. But Lea’s team closed the season the right way by beating Ga. Tech 35-27 as a three-point underdog in the Birmingham Bowl to finish 7-6 straight up and 8-4 against the spread.
Vandy returns seven starters on offense and eight on a defense that gave up an average of only 23.6 points per game. Most importantly, though, Pavia’s appeal in court for another year of eligibility was granted.
Vandy’ 2025 recruiting class is ranked #51 nationally, according to the 247Sports Composite. Lea’s transfer-specific imports are ranked #36, though. The 33 commitments include a quartet of four-star signees. There are 13 incoming freshmen and 20 transfers.
The ‘Dores have brought in seven offensive linemen from the portal, including four-star transfer center Jordan White, who was a first-team All-Conference USA selection for Liberty last season. He started 25 games for the Flames over the past two years.
Chase Mitchell started 13 games at right tackle for Vandy last year, and he started 14 games for Liberty at left tackle in 2023. He’s sliding over to left guard for his senior campaign. The new starter at right tackle is going to be Bryce Henderson, a 6-foot-8, 327-pound transfer from South Dakota. Henderson, who has started 34 games over the last three seasons, was a Missouri Valley Football Conference first-team selection in 2024.
Isaia Glass came out of spring practice as the starting left tackle, but he’ll be pushed by Sterling Porcher. Glass started 15 games for Arizona St. in 2022 and 2023, and he started eight games last year after transferring to Oklahoma St. As for Porcher, he started 25 times in 2022 and ’23 at Middle Tennessee before logging 11 starts at Texas Tech last season.
In 2024, Pavia completed 177-of-298 passes (59.4%) for 2,293 yards with a 20/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also had 801 rushing yards, eight TDs and a 4.1 yards-per-carry average.
Alexander, a rising junior who started six games for Vandy as a freshman and all 13 last year, is back after rushing for 586 yards and six TDs with a 3.6 YPC average. He also had 23 catches for 238 yards and one TD. Newberry also returns at RB. He had 185 rushing yards, three TDs and a 4.5 YPC average in 2024, and he also caught seven balls for 134 yards and two TDs.
Pavia has two of his favorite targets back in Stowers and Sherrill. Stowers had 49 receptions for 638 yards and five TDs in 2024. He’s a preseason first-team All-American in both Athlon and Phil Steele’s magazines. Steele also has Stowers as the #2 available TE in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Sherrill had 29 catches for 411 yards and three TDs last year, in addition to averaging 26.7 yards on 16 kick returns, including one TD. Sherrill is ranked in Steele’s mag as the #4 available kick returner in the 2026 NFL Draft.
There are also some fresh faces to serve as weapons for Pavia. WR Tre Richardson is a transfer from Division-II Washburn University, where he was a first-team all-conference selection after hauling in 52 receptions for 983 yards and 11 TDs last year.
Richardson was also a track star, competing in 60, 100 and 200-meter runs as well as the long jump. He’s been timed at 4.3 seconds running the 40-yard dash.
The portal also produced WRs Trent Hudson and Chance Fitzgerald, who was a four-star prospect in the 2023 class coming out of Nolensville High School in Nashville when he signed with Va. Tech. Hudson was redshirted at Mississippi St. last year after seeing limited snaps in only four games.
However, Hudson thrived playing with Pavia in Beck’s offense at NMSU in 2023. He produced 35 catches for 551 yards and 10 TDs. In the Conference USA Championship Game, Hudson had seven grabs for 112 yards and two TDs. He also snagged three balls for 122 yards and two TDs in a 27-13 win over Sam Houston.
There are two incoming freshmen – WRs Cameran Dixon and Kayleb Barnett – that thrived in football and at track and field in high school. Barnett won state titles in both the long jump and the 100-meter dash in Oklahoma.
Dixon had 16 TD catches and three TDs on returns (two punt, one kickoff) as a senior at Flour Bluff HS in Texas. He finished seventh in the long jump in the state meet.
Vandy has seven of its top 10 tacklers back from last year’s defense, including the top three in middle linebacker Bryan Longwell, BUCK Langston Patterson and Fontenette, a rising junior free safety who is a preseason fourth-team All-SEC choice in Steele’s magazine.
Steele named Longwell a fourth-team All-SEC selection in 2024 when he produced 89 tackles, eight tackles for loss, four passes broken up, two QB hurries, 1.5 sacks and one interception as a sophomore. Longwell is a preseason second-team All-SEC pick in Steele’s mag.
In 11 games last year, Patterson recorded 78 tackles, five TFL’s, two PBU and one fumble recovery. As a true sophomore after transferring from TCU, Fontenette started 11 of 12 games and contributed 73 tackles, eight TFL’s, eight PBU and the aforementioned pick-six vs. Alabama.
CB Martel Hight had an instant impact as a true freshman in 2023 when he started six times in 11 games and had 38 tackles and one pick-six. He had 33 tackles, four PBU, two TFL’s, two interceptions, one forced fumble and one QB hurry last season.
Hight led the SEC and was seventh in the country in yards per punt return (14.7) when he returned 18 punts for 265 yards and one TD. He is a preseason second-team All-SEC pick and a fourth-team All-American as a punt returner in Steele’s magazine.
Vandy also brings back Taylor, who is Steele’s preseason fourth-team All-SEC kicker. Although he had the costly misses at Missouri, Taylor was extremely reliable as a redshirt freshman last year.
After the two misses at Missouri, Taylor made all 11 of his field goals in the next nine games. He buried 18-of-21 FGAs for the season, including a 57-yarder at Missouri that’s the longest FG in program history. Taylor made 5-of-6 FGAs from 50+ yards.
Steele’s National Unit Rankings have Vandy #17 at the QB position, #61 at WR, #58 on the defensive line, #19 at LB and #4 on special teams. Those rankings at most position groups go out into the 65-75 range.
As for the position groups that didn’t get ranked nationally, Steele has the Commodores #14 at RB in his SEC Unit Rankings, while the offensive line and the secondary are #15 out of 16 teams.
FanDuel has Vandy’s season win total at 4.5 (‘over’ -164, ‘under’ +134), but there are other books that have the number at 5.5 with bettors getting a chance to win plus money. For instance, Circa has it at 5.5 (‘under’ -160, ‘over’ +140).
The Commodores’ odds to win the SEC Championship Game are 300/1, and they have 40/1 odds to make the College Football Playoff. Their odds to win the CFP are 1,000/1.
FanDuel has Pavia’s odds to win the Heisman Trophy at 150/1.
Now let’s examine the schedule, which is ranked as the country’s 28th-toughest in Steele’s mag. That equates to the 12th-toughest in the SEC.
The non-conference slate consists of three home games vs. Charleston Southern, Georgia St. and Utah St., in addition to a Week 2 road assignment at Va. Tech. The four SEC road games are at South Carolina, at Alabama, at Texas and at Tennessee, while the SEC home contests are vs. LSU, vs. Missouri, vs. Auburn and vs. Kentucky.
Vandy gets its open dates that provide two weeks of preparation for home game vs. LSU and vs. Kentucky. The Tigers will be coming off a home game vs. the Gamecocks before their trip to Nashville, while the Wildcats host Tennessee Tech before their visit to FirstBank Stadium.
I feel extremely confident that Vandy wins home games vs. Charleston So., Ga. St., Utah St. and Kentucky. The only contests that I consider definite defeats are at Alabama and at Texas.
The ‘Dores play at Va. Tech and at South Carolina in Weeks 2 and 3. I think they can get one of those, and I’ll call for it to be against the Hokies (again). With a split in those games, that leaves Vandy with a 5-3 record.
I didn’t include vs. LSU and at Tennessee as definite defeats for several reasons. First of all, both will be revenge games for Vandy, which lost 24-17 at LSU last year but covered the spread as an 8.5-point road underdog.
Secondly, the ‘Dores will have rest advantage vs. LSU off the open date, and they’ll have the QB advantage against the Vols, who won 36-23 at Vandy in 2024. Nevertheless, Vandy will be underdogs in both games. Upset wins could happen, but we’ll mark both games as losses.
That leaves Vandy with a 5-5 record with a pair of home games still left ungraded: vs. Missouri and vs. Auburn. I don’t think new Auburn QB Jackson Arnold needs to live up to his five-star billing coming out of high school for Freeze’s bunch to have a big season.
If Arnold simply plays solid football (nothing spectacular, but nothing awful in terms of turnovers galore), then the Tigers should be an eight-win team and possibly better because the overall roster is vastly improved.
With that said, will it be enough for Freeze to overcome the dreadful results he’s had against Pavia’s squads? I say no. I say, ‘Pavia is Freeze’s Daddy for life.’
But even if Auburn does win at Vandy, the ‘Dores can certainly beat Missouri at home. The spot is advantageous for Lea’s team, too, as Eli Drinkwitz’s club will be in a back-to-back road situation after playing at Auburn the previous week.
Missouri hosts Alabama the week before going to Auburn, and Freeze’s bunch will be gunning for Drinkwitz’s team that rallied for an improbable 21-17 win over Auburn in the final minute of last year’s meeting.
PREDICTION: I think Vandy goes at least 6-6, possibly 7-5 during the regular season. (Season win total wagers are for the 12 regular-season games only. These bets become no-plays if a team doesn’t play all 12 games.) Therefore, I’ll risk 1.62 units to win one unit on Vandy to go ‘over’ 4.5 wins, and I’ll also risk one unit on the ‘Dores to go ‘over’ 5.5 wins for a +140 return that would net 1.4 units of profit.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-Steele’s mag has Vandy ranked #38 in its preseason power rankings.
-I had more to say about the Commodores with Jay Greeson in our preview for Southeastern 16.
-The Commodores have 42 returning lettermen and lost only 23. The 23 lettermen lost is the lowest amount in the SEC, as Florida has the second-lowest number (25).
-In the three previously noted wins in matchups between Pavia/Kill vs. Freeze, Pavia’s teams are 3-0 both SU and ATS, beating the closing lines by 124 combined points.
-Pavia’s confidence remains through the roof. He recently sat down for an interview with Taylor Lewan and Will Compton on their popular ‘Bussin’ With The Boys’ podcast. First of all, he kept busting on Compton (Nebraska) and Lewan (Michigan) about how inferior the Big Ten is to the SEC. Other notable remarks included Pavia’s multiple references to “Vandy winning a national title in 2025,” RB Makhilyn Young being a surprise player this year, a Week 3 game at South Carolina being one that Pavia is gunning for and his “new toys” at the WR position. He also pointed out how hanging out with Theo Von was one of his highlights from this past year, and that he turned down a $4 million offer from another SEC school to transfer.
-In Steele’s mag, Vandy center Jordan White is ranked as the #6 center available in the 2026 NFL Draft. Pavia is ranked as the #21 QB, while Hight is ranked as the #3 punt returner and #49 CB. Fontenette is ranked #15 at strong safety, Miles Capers is #22 at OLB, Longwell is #41 at OLB, Patterson is #44 at MLB, Khordae Snyder is #44 at DE, Ouattara is #49 at DT, Henderson is #59 at OT, Zaylin Wood is #73 at DT and Richardson is #74 at WR.
-I do a weekly pod for Southeastern 16’s YouTube channel. We haven’t done our Vandy preview yet, but here’s last week’s edition previewing Kentucky. My co-host Jay Greeson and I also broke down the SEC Head Coaching Hot Seats.
-In addition to my two plays on Vandy’s season win total to go ‘over,’ I’m also on Kentucky ‘under’ 4.5 wins at a -106 price and Florida ‘over’ 7.5 wins for a +122 payout.
-If you wish, you can follow me on Twitter here.