As of late Monday morning, most books had Oklahoma City (71-18 straight up, 44-44-1 against the spread) installed as an 11.5-point road favorite for tonight’s Game 4 in Los Angeles against the Lakers, who are generous +450 money-line underdogs. The total was 214.5 points at most spots.
Oklahoma City took a 3-0 series lead with Saturday’s 131-108 win as an 8.5-point road favorite. The 239 combined points soared ‘over’ the 211.5-point total.
Ajay Mitchell paced seven players in double figures with 24 points, four rebounds, three steals and 10 assists compared to zero turnovers. He buried 10-of-17 field-goal attempts.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished with 23 points, nine assists, four boards and a pair of blocked shots, while Chet Holmgren contributed 18 points and nine rebounds.
In the losing effort, Rui Hachimura had 21 points, five rebounds and four assists. LeBron James finished with 19 points, eight assists and six rebounds.
OKC has faced the Lakers seven times this season, producing scoring outputs of 121, 119, 139, 123, 108, 125 and 131 points. Therefore, the Thunder have scored at least 119 points in six of its seven head-to-head meetings against the Lakers, who gave up an average of 114.6 points per game during the regular season.
OKC is scoring an average of 122.1 PPG through seven postseason outings. In 82 regular-season contests, the Thunder scored at a 119.0 PPG clip.
Nevertheless, most shops have OKC’s Team Total at 112.5 or 113.5 points (with various juice amounts) tonight. We’re not complaining, though.
Pick #1: Let’s go with OKC’s Team Total ‘over’ 112.5 (-118 price at FanDuel), risking 1.77 units to win 1.5 units.
Detroit has a 2-1 series lead going into tonight’s Game 4 at Cleveland. As of late Monday morning, most books had the Cavs listed as 3.5-point home favorites with a total of 213.5. The Pistons were +140 on the money line.
Cleveland (57-35 SU, 37-54-1 ATS) is off a 116-109 win over Detroit as a 5.5-point home favorite. The Cavs improved to 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their five postseason home games.
Cleveland sprinted out to a 16-point halftime lead, only to see Detroit outscore it 33-19 in the third quarter. However, the Cavs pulled away in the fourth quarter and covered the spread.
Donovan Mitchell was the catalyst for the winners, producing 35 points, 10 rebounds and four assists. James Harden added 19 points and dished out seven assists.
With the loss, Detroit fell to 1-3 both SU and ATS in its four postseason road assignments.
Pick #2: Let’s risk 1.65 units to win 1.5 units on the Cavs -3.5.