
As of late Monday afternoon, most books had Sacramento (23-18 straight up, 22-19 against the spread) installed as an eight-point favorite for tonight’s home game vs. Atlanta. The total was 238 points, while the Hawks were +300 on the money line.
Tip-off is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. Eastern.
Sacramento has lost four games in a row, but the first defeat came at Philadelphia and the last three have been by eight combined points. The Kings lost 143-142 at Milwaukee in overtime, but they covered the spread as four-point road underdogs.
Two nights later, they lost 119-117 at Phoenix as 4.5-point road ‘dogs. The Suns rallied past Sacramento after trailing by 22 points in the fourth quarter.
Off those deflating heartbreakers, the Kings returned home and lost a 126-121 decision vs. Indiana.
Atlanta (18-24 SU, 11-31 ATS) is 10-12 SU and 7-14 ATS in 21 road assignments, while Sacramento is 13-8 SU and 9-12 ATS at home. The Hawks are going to be without two starters, including Trae Young, who is out indefinitely after sustaining a concussion in Saturday’s 116-95 home loss to Cleveland.
Young averages 26.9 points, 10.8 assists, 3.0 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game. The Hawks are also without De’Andre Hunter, who averages 14.9 PPG.
Sacramento has had three days off to rest and prepare for this spot. I think the Kings, who won 117-110 at Atlanta on Dec. 29, win by double digits tonight.
PREDICTION: Sacramento -8
As for the total, the ‘under’ is on a 6-0 run for Atlanta in its last six games. Those contests have produced combined scores of 211, 217, 210, 208, 226 and 234 points.
The Hawks had Young (26.9 PPG & 10.8 APG) in those six games, but his offensive production won’t be there tonight.
The ‘under’ has been a winner in seven straight head-to-head meetings between these clubs, including Sacramento’s 117-110 win at Atlanta on Dec. 29. The seven ‘unders’ in a row in this rivalry had combined scores of 227, 237, 221, 225, 210, 218 and 227 points.
The last ‘over’ in this rivalry was eight meetings ago, and that game had a combined score of 230 that would’ve gone ‘under’ with tonight’s total.
The ‘under’ is on a 9-6 run in Sacramento’s last 15 games.
PREDICTION: ‘Under’ 238.