White Sox @ Red Sox Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positives for the Chicago White Sox Series Game 3 Game Today

Willson Contreras projects as the 16th-best batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Willson Contreras is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best field in baseball for run-scoring.

,This matchup is predicted to have the 9th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

,The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 82nd percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

,Ceddanne Rafaela is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

,Among all stadiums, Fenway Park’s left field dimensions are the shallowest.

,Andruw Monasterio will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

,Andruw Monasterio has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.1-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.3-mph figure.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 7th-best venue in the league for righty batting average.

,Luisangel Acuna will hold the platoon advantage against Ranger Suarez in today’s matchup.

,Luisangel Acuna hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,Joey Bart’s BABIP ability is projected in the 84th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Hitting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Joey Bart will have an edge in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Braden Montgomery in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

,Braden Montgomery has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

,Masataka Yoshida’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Masataka Yoshida is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.

,The 3rd-shallowest right field fences in MLB are found in Fenway Park.

,This season, Luisangel Acuna has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 89.6 mph compared to last year’s 85.2 mph mark.

,Colson Montgomery is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.

,The #7 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.

,Colson Montgomery pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.8% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Connor Wong will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

,Connor Wong has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87-mph to 94.9-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 97th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

,Miguel Vargas is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.

,Hitting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Miguel Vargas will have an advantage today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Colson Montgomery as MLB’s 15th-best home run hitter.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

,Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.

,When it comes to his home run ability, Randal Grichuk ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Randal Grichuk is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.

,Chase Meidroth is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.

,Chase Meidroth will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ranger Suarez in today’s matchup.

,Nick Sogard has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

,Nick Sogard pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.5% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brenton Doyle in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

,Batting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Brenton Doyle will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

,Because of Luis Castillo’s huge platoon split, Jarren Duran will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today’s matchup.

,Batting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Randal Grichuk will have the upper hand in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Ranger Suarez in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his strikeout ability.

,The Chicago White Sox have 5 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Bart, Brenton Doyle, Braden Montgomery, Colson Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami).

,Ranger Suarez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his metrics across the board.

,Ranger Suarez has utilized his sinker 5.1% less often this season (23.4%) than he did last season (28.5%).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best venue in MLB for batting average.

,Playing on the road generally diminishes pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Luis Castillo in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Munetaka Murakami as the game’s 2nd-best home run hitter.

,Munetaka Murakami is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Munetaka Murakami in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

,Caleb Durbin pulls many of his flyballs (36.6% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,Caleb Durbin will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

,Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Nick Sogard will hold that advantage today.

,Luis Castillo has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 5.8 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starting pitcher.

,Luis Castillo was firing on all cylinders in his previous start and compiled 7 strikeouts.

,When estimating his overall offensive skill, Masataka Yoshida ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Munetaka Murakami hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

,Ceddanne Rafaela has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chase Meidroth in the 85th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Bart in the 77th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

,Joey Bart pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 77th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences today.

,When assessing his home run talent, Brenton Doyle ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Brenton Doyle hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

,Willson Contreras pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.8% — 86th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luisangel Acuna in the 82nd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 79th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

,Jarren Duran has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randal Grichuk in the 77th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

,Braden Montgomery has exhibited favorable plate discipline this year, grading out in the 75th percentile with a 2.03 K/BB rate.

,Chase Meidroth has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Negatives with the Boston Red Sox Series Game 3 Game Today

Fenway Park has the 2nd-tallest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.

,Fenway Park’s elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.

,Luis Castillo will have the handedness advantage against Willson Contreras today… and it’s an even larger mismatch considering Castillo’s huge platoon split.

,Out of every team on the slate today, the 5th-best infield defense belongs to the Chicago White Sox.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Willson Contreras’s true offensive talent to be a .362, suggesting that he has been very fortunate this year given the .036 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .398 wOBA.

,Because of Luis Castillo’s huge platoon split, Ceddanne Rafaela will be at a colossal disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish today.

,Ceddanne Rafaela’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 92.5-mph average last season has fallen off to 89.8-mph.

,Andruw Monasterio is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.

,Luis Castillo will hold the platoon advantage against Andruw Monasterio in today’s game… and it’s a particular mismatch considering Castillo’s huge platoon split.

,Andruw Monasterio has been lucky this year, posting a .334 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .313 — a .021 deviation.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luisangel Acuna in the 6th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

,Luisangel Acuna is projected to bat 9th in the batting order today.

,This year, Luisangel Acuna has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 44% of his appearances when starting against southpaw.

,Joey Bart is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,20% of the time that Joey Bart has started against a southpaw this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

,Among every team playing today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox.

,Braden Montgomery is projected to bat 8th in the lineup today.

,As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the dish, Braden Montgomery will be at a disadvantage batting from his bad side against Ranger Suarez in this game.

,Masataka Yoshida has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 13% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.

,Masataka Yoshida’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 88.3-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 82.3-mph in the past 7 days.

,Masataka Yoshida’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 91.6-mph average last year has lowered to 89.5-mph.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colson Montgomery in the 13th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

,Ranger Suarez will have the handedness advantage against Colson Montgomery today.

,Colson Montgomery will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

,Connor Wong is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,This year, Connor Wong has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 14% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter.

,Luis Castillo will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Connor Wong in today’s game… and it’s an even larger mismatch considering Castillo’s huge platoon split.

,Connor Wong has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 5% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week.

,Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Miguel Vargas today.

,Wilyer Abreu’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 89.7-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 86.6-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

,Randal Grichuk has been pinch hit for 67% of the time when starting against a southpaw this year.

,Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Randal Grichuk today.

,When assessing his home run skill, Chase Meidroth ranks in the 7th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Chase Meidroth will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

,When estimating his home run skill, Nick Sogard ranks in the 8th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,The switch-hitting Nick Sogard will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side (0) today against Luis Castillo… and it’s an over-sized mismatch considering Castillo’s huge platoon split.

,Boston’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Miguel Vargas, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

,Brenton Doyle is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.

,Brenton Doyle has been pulled from the game early 37% of the time when starting against a left-handed starter this year.

,Jarren Duran is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

,Jarren Duran has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 10.2% seasonal rate has fallen to 2.9% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

,Randal Grichuk’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 92.5-mph average last year has dropped off to 90.4-mph.

,Joey Bart will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ranger Suarez to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.

,Projected catcher Connor Wong grades out as a horrible pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,The #6 stadium in the league for suppressing strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.

,In his last start, Luis Castillo was in good form and allowed 0 ER.

,Luis Castillo’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (40.2% compared to 31.8% last season) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

,With a 0.68 difference between Luis Castillo’s 5.06 ERA and his 4.38 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game this year and should positively regress in the future.

,Ranger Suarez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Munetaka Murakami today.

,Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Munetaka Murakami in today’s game.

,Despite posting a .387 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Munetaka Murakami has been lucky given the .041 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .346.

,In the last 14 days, Nick Sogard has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

,Colson Montgomery has displayed weak plate discipline this year, placing in the 17th percentile with a 3.72 K/BB rate.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Caleb Durbin in the 13th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

,Caleb Durbin is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Considering Luis Castillo’s huge platoon split, Caleb Durbin will be at an enormous disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Caleb Durbin in the 25th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

,Luis Castillo has recorded an 18.7% K% this year, ranking in the 25th percentile.

,Using Statcast metrics, Wilyer Abreu is in the 24th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .230.

,Ranger Suarez projects as the 14th-best pitcher in MLB currently, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Masataka Yoshida has averaged 11.9 HRs per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 23rd percentile for power.

,Despite posting a .348 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ceddanne Rafaela has experienced some positive variance given the .043 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .305.

,Chase Meidroth’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 87.9-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 85.1-mph over the past week.

,Chase Meidroth has been lucky this year, posting a .327 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .302 — a .025 gap.

,Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Brenton Doyle in today’s game.

,Posting a .242 BABIP this year, Miguel Vargas finds himself in the 6th percentile.

,Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Luisangel Acuna in today’s matchup.

,Over the last 7 days, Jarren Duran’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal figure of 92.9 mph to 88.2 mph.

,Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Braden Montgomery in today’s game.

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