Todays Series Game 2 Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Minnesota at Chicago Series Game 2 Matchup Today

Max Kepler is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

The #6 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.

Guaranteed Rate Field has the 4th-shallowest fences in the league — generally good for dingers.

Max Kepler will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Erick Fedde in today’s game.

The Chicago White Sox outfield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of every team playing today.

Brooks Lee pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.1% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

In the last 14 days, Brooks Lee has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .457.

Andrew Benintendi’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Andrew Benintendi is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.

Andrew Benintendi will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bailey Ober in today’s game.

Andrew Benintendi has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 5th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Among all the teams in action today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Minnesota Twins.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Erick Fedde in the 80th percentile when assessing his overall pitching abilities.

Throwing 94.8 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Erick Fedde falls in the 89th percentile.

It may be best to expect weaker performance for the Minnesota Twins offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the luckiest offense in the majors this year.

Guaranteed Rate Field profiles as the #24 ballpark in Major League Baseball for base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Nicky Lopez will have the handedness advantage over Bailey Ober in today’s matchup.

Nicky Lopez has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 5th-shallowest LF fences today.

Extreme groundball bats like Nicky Lopez tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Bailey Ober.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Miranda in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Jose Miranda is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Guaranteed Rate Field as the 6th-best field in baseball for righty home runs.

Jose Miranda pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.5% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 5th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Byron Buxton as the majors’s 16th-best home run batter.

Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (42.3% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 5th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Byron Buxton has made substantial gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 10.8% seasonal rate to 19.4% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Jeffers in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

Ryan Jeffers pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.7% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Grading out in the 93rd percentile for power, Ryan Jeffers has hit 31.2 long-balls per 600 plate appearances this year.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Nicky Lopez will hold that advantage today.

When it comes to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Bailey Ober in the 89th percentile among all starters in the league.

With 6 batters who share his handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Bailey Ober figures to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

In his last outing, Bailey Ober was rolling and put up 8 strikeouts.

Bailey Ober has added a cut-fastball to his pitch mix this season and has thrown it 21.5% of the time.

Paul DeJong pulls many of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest LF fences today.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Paul DeJong will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Compared to his seasonal average of 20.3°, Paul DeJong has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 31.5° mark in the past 7 days.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Andrew Benintendi will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Byron Buxton in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Byron Buxton has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.5-mph to 96.8-mph in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willi Castro in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Willi Castro is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

Willi Castro pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.9% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 9th-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Larnach in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

Trevor Larnach is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.

Trevor Larnach will hold the platoon advantage against Erick Fedde today.

Jose Miranda has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 90.1-mph average to last season’s 87.9-mph mark.

Minnesota’s 89.1-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in Major League Baseball: #8 overall.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Max Kepler ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The Chicago White Sox have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season, Bailey Ober is an extreme flyball pitcher (41% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #8 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.

Ryan Jeffers has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 94.5-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal average of 91.5-mph.

Ryan Jeffers’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, rising from 17.3% on the season to 25% in the past 7 days.

Gavin Sheets is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.

Gavin Sheets will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bailey Ober in today’s matchup.

Gavin Sheets pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.7% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 9th-shallowest RF fences today.

Jose Miranda has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.4-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 90.1-mph figure.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Gavin Sheets will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Carlos Correa is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.

By putting up a .371 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Carlos Correa finds himself in the 95th percentile for hitting ability.

The Minnesota Twins have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner).

Erick Fedde’s high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (69% this year) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

Trevor Larnach has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .242 figure is significantly deflated relative to his .266 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Willi Castro’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls recently (23.9° in the past two weeks) is a considerable increase over his 13.9° seasonal angle.

Willi Castro has hit one of the hardest balls in the game in the past week — 109.6-mph — which is a strong proxy for recent form and raw power.

Last season, Paul DeJong had an average launch angle of 15.5° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 20.8°.

Carlos Correa has recorded a .296 Expected Batting Average this year, checking in at the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his home run talent, Paul DeJong ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Willi Castro’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 41.9% to 49.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Jeffers in the 82nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

With a .345 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Ryan Jeffers finds himself in the 80th percentile.

Wednesday Series Game 2 player match stat slumps with Twins vs White Sox Matchup

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Max Kepler in the 13th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.

Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Max Kepler in today’s matchup.

In the past week’s worth of games, Max Kepler’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.3% down to 0%.

Max Kepler’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 93.4-mph average last year has fallen to 88.9-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brooks Lee in the 23rd percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

Brooks Lee is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Brooks Lee in today’s game.

Brooks Lee has exhibited some bad exit velocity indicators in recent games, averaging just 87.1-mph on his flyballs over the last 14 days.

Andrew Benintendi has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 5.1% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past 7 days.

Andrew Benintendi has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.9-mph dropping to 84.1-mph over the last 7 days.

From last year to this one, Andrew Benintendi’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 48.4% to 38.7%.

With a .240 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Andrew Benintendi has performed in the 4th percentile.

Korey Lee, the White Sox’s expected catcher in today’s game, projects as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Guaranteed Rate Field has the 5th-shallowest left field fences among all stadiums.

With a 0.89 discrepancy between Erick Fedde’s 3.13 ERA and his 4.02 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the game this year and should see negative regression in the future.

Checking in at the 13th percentile, Erick Fedde recorded an 8.4% Swinging Strike rate this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nicky Lopez in the 1st percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

Nicky Lopez is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today.

This year, Nicky Lopez has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 10% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound.

Nicky Lopez has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.6-mph dropping to 83-mph over the last two weeks.

Hitting from the same side that Erick Fedde throws from, Jose Miranda will not have the upper hand today.

Jose Miranda will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Jose Miranda has been lucky this year, putting up a .385 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .311 — a .074 gap.

Byron Buxton is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

Erick Fedde will have the handedness advantage against Byron Buxton in today’s matchup.

Byron Buxton will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Posting a 6.26 K/BB rate this year, Byron Buxton has displayed bad plate discipline, ranking in the 4th percentile.

Ryan Jeffers is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

Erick Fedde will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Jeffers today.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ryan Jeffers today.

Ryan Jeffers’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 90.5-mph figure last year has fallen off to 85.8-mph.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Nicky Lopez ranks in the 9th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Notching a 1.8° launch angle in the last two weeks’ worth of games suggests that Brooks Lee has been finding it challenging to lift the ball recently, which is a key component of hitting for power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Guaranteed Rate Field as the 7th-worst field in the game for strikeouts.

Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Bailey Ober (41% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in Chicago’s projected batting order.

Bailey Ober will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Out of all SPs, Bailey Ober’s fastball velocity of 91.4 mph grades out in the 18th percentile this year.

Given the 0.05 discrepancy between Bailey Ober’s 9.57 K/9 and his 9.53 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the majors this year in terms of strikeouts and should see worse results the rest of the season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul DeJong in the 7th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Paul DeJong is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

Hitting from the same side that Bailey Ober throws from, Paul DeJong will be in a tough position in today’s game.

Extreme flyball batters like Paul DeJong tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Bailey Ober.

When it comes to his home run talent, Andrew Benintendi ranks in the 20th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Andrew Benintendi’s launch angle in recent games (7.1° over the past 14 days) is considerably lower than his 14.6° seasonal mark.

Byron Buxton has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .282 mark is significantly inflated relative to his .245 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the plate, Willi Castro will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side against Erick Fedde in this game.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Willi Castro today.

This year, Trevor Larnach has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 45% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.

Trevor Larnach will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Trevor Larnach has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 9.8% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last week.

Trevor Larnach has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91.6-mph dropping to 77.5-mph in the last 7 days.

Erick Fedde will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats across the board.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 10.6°, Max Kepler’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls has dropped significantly in recent games (3.2° in the past 14 days).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Bailey Ober in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall pitching abilities.

The Chicago White Sox projected lineup profiles as the 3rd-worst of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Sheets in the 12th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

This year, Gavin Sheets has been pulled from the game early in 11% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

Gavin Sheets has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 6.4% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past 14 days.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 16°, Gavin Sheets has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (4.8°) over the last 14 days.

Over the past two weeks, Jose Miranda’s 7.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.8%.

Erick Fedde will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Correa in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Carlos Correa in today’s matchup.

Carlos Correa’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 90.9-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 86.9-mph over the last week.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 10°, Carlos Correa has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (3.4°) over the last 14 days.

There has been a significant decline in Willi Castro’s launch angle from last season’s 15° to 11.8° this season.

Paul DeJong’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 93.1-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 83.4-mph in the last two weeks.

Despite posting a .347 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Willi Castro has been very fortunate given the .043 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .304.