Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Twins vs Rockies Matchup Today

When estimating his home run ability, Brenton Doyle ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The #1 park in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.

Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all parks, which often leads to more offense.

As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.

Brenton Doyle has strong power (79th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (28.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Chris Paddack is a pitch-to-contact type (16th percentile K%) — great news for Doyle.

Coors Field profiles as the #8 venue in Major League Baseball for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brenton Doyle in the 75th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

The #1 stadium in the game for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.

Among all the teams today, the weakest infield defense belongs to the Minnesota Twins.

When assessing his home run skill, Hunter Goodman ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hunter Goodman is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

Brooks Lee has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 88.7-mph average to last year’s 85.8-mph EV.

When estimating his home run skill, Jordan Beck ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jordan Beck is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Ryan Ritter will hold that advantage today.

Ryan Ritter has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 86.4-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 83.5-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Ritter in the 86th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Christian Vazquez will have the handedness advantage over Kyle Freeland in today’s matchup.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Christian Vazquez has had bad variance on his side this year. His .224 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .267.

Kyle Freeland will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should bolster all of his stats in all categories.

In his previous game started, Kyle Freeland was firing on all cylinders and notched 7 strikeouts.

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kyle Freeland has utilized his secondary offerings 6.5% more often this year (61.7%) than he did last year (55.2%).

Out of all starters, Kyle Freeland’s fastball spin rate of 2416 rpm ranks in the 80th percentile this year.

In his last outing, Kyle Freeland was firing on all cylinders and gave up 0 ER.

Kyle Freeland is an extreme flyball pitcher (32.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #9 HR venue in MLB in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan McMahon in the 83rd percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Ryan McMahon is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.

The #8 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best stadium in baseball for LHB batting average.

Hitting from the opposite that Chris Paddack throws from, Ryan McMahon will have the upper hand today.

Willi Castro is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

Willi Castro has posted a .346 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 77th percentile.

Willi Castro’s BABIP skill is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Carlos Correa is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Carlos Correa ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The Colorado Rockies projected batting order projects as the 3rd-worst of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill.

Christian Vazquez, the Twins’s expected catcher today, profiles as a good pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Given the 0.49 disparity between Chris Paddack’s 4.95 ERA and his 4.46 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the game this year and figures to perform better in the future.

Chris Paddack’s 80th percentile walk rate (6% this year) shows his strong control skills.

Colorado’s 88.9-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in the game: #24 overall.

Chris Paddack is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #9 HR venue in the majors in this game.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the most strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Colorado Rockies with a 27.8% underlying K%.

Given the 0.77 disparity between Chris Paddack’s 6.30 K/9 and his 7.07 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year when it comes to strikeouts and figures to positively regress in the future.

Ty France will hold the platoon advantage over Kyle Freeland in today’s game.

In terms of his home runs, Ty France has had bad variance on his side this year. His 10.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.4.

Ty France’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Freeland throws from, Harrison Bader will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Harrison Bader has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 12.5% seasonal rate to 31.3% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Byron Buxton projects as the 10th-best home run batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Byron Buxton is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Byron Buxton in the 97th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

As it relates to his home run ability, Ryan Jeffers ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ryan Jeffers is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Jeffers in the 81st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mickey Moniak in the 87th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Mickey Moniak has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (80% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

Mickey Moniak will have the handedness advantage over Chris Paddack in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Freeman in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Tyler Freeman is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.

Bats such as Tyler Freeman with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Chris Paddack who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Royce Lewis ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Royce Lewis has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order today.

Michael Toglia has a ton of pop (90th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (34.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Chris Paddack doesn’t generate many whiffs (2nd percentile K%) — great news for Toglia.

Michael Toglia will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Toglia in the 90th percentile when estimating his home run skill.

Negative Match Player Stats with Twins vs Rockies

Brenton Doyle has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (76% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

Chris Paddack will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brenton Doyle today.

Brenton Doyle has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph dropping to 85.5-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Brenton Doyle has notched a .235 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 1st percentile.

With a .184 batting average this year, Brenton Doyle is ranked in the 2nd percentile.

Posting a .295 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year, Brenton Doyle is positioned in the 6th percentile.

Batting from the same side that Chris Paddack throws from, Hunter Goodman faces a tough challenge in today’s game.

Hunter Goodman has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .359 figure is a fair amount higher than his .289 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Hunter Goodman has displayed weak plate discipline this year, placing in the 9th percentile with a 4.97 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brooks Lee in the 15th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Brooks Lee is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

The switch-hitting Brooks Lee will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side (0) today against Kyle Freeland,The Colorado Rockies outfield defense projects as the 5th-strongest out of every team playing today.

Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Brooks Lee today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brooks Lee in the 19th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 13.3°, Brooks Lee has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (5.1°) in the past 14 days.

Hitting from the same side that Chris Paddack throws from, Jordan Beck has a tough challenge in today’s game.

Over the last two weeks, Jordan Beck’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal EV of 92.9 mph to 90.1 mph.

Despite posting a .329 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jordan Beck has experienced some positive variance given the .029 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .300.

Posting a 4.65 K/BB rate this year, Jordan Beck has demonstrated bad plate discipline, placing in the 12th percentile.

Ryan Ritter is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Chris Paddack will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Ritter in today’s matchup.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Ryan Ritter has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Ryan Ritter has had some very good luck this year. His .284 mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .234.

In the last two weeks, Ryan Ritter’s 25% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 39.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Vazquez in the 9th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Christian Vazquez is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this game.

Christian Vazquez will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Christian Vazquez’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 90.5-mph EV last year has dropped to 86.3-mph.

This year, Christian Vazquez’s 4.8% Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 20th percentile among his peers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Freeland to throw 85 pitches today (6th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

Hunter Goodman, the Rockies’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, grades out as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Coors Field projects as the #30 park in the league for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best park in baseball for batting average.

In the past two weeks, Ryan McMahon’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.3% down to 4.5%.

In notching a .297 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Ryan McMahon finds himself in the 25th percentile for hitting ability.

Ryan McMahon has put up a .215 Expected Batting Average this year, grading out in the 7th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Ryan McMahon has put up a .291 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 23rd percentile.

Placing in the 5th percentile, Ryan McMahon has notched a .200 batting average this year.

As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the dish, Willi Castro will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side against Kyle Freeland in today’s matchup.

Willi Castro will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Willi Castro has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.1-mph dropping to 71.2-mph in the last 7 days.

From last season to this one, Willi Castro’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 90.6 mph to 88.3 mph.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 13.2°, Willi Castro has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (4.7°) over the last 14 days.

Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Carlos Correa in today’s matchup.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Carlos Correa’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (3.5°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 8.6°.

Carlos Correa grades out in the 9th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (11.3% rate this year).

Sporting a 3.5 K/BB rate this year, Carlos Correa has displayed bad plate discipline, ranking in the 25th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chris Paddack to throw 84 pitches in today’s game (4th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

The Colorado Rockies have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games,Rating 4th-least steep in MLB this year, Colorado Rockies batters collectively have notched a 11.4° launch angle on their hardest-contacted balls (a reliable stat to assess power skills).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Chris Paddack in the 25th percentile when it comes to his strikeout skill.

Ty France has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (65% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ty France today.

Ty France’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 93.3-mph mark last season has dropped to 91-mph.

Ty France’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (10.9°) is quite a bit worse than his 15.7° mark last season.

Grading out in the 21st percentile, Ty France has posted a .174 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year.

With a 3.83 K/BB rate this year, Ty France has demonstrated bad plate discipline, ranking in the 22nd percentile.

Harrison Bader is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Harrison Bader in today’s game.

Harrison Bader has been lucky this year, putting up a .334 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .303 — a .031 discrepancy.

Typically, batters like Byron Buxton who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Kyle Freeland.

Byron Buxton will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 18°, Byron Buxton has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (6.3°) in the past two weeks.

Byron Buxton has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .388 mark is quite a bit higher than his .347 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

This year, Ryan Jeffers has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 12% of his appearances when starting against southpaw.

Ryan Jeffers will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

Ryan Jeffers’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off recently; his 92.4-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 90-mph over the last 14 days.

Ryan Jeffers’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined lately, decreasing from 14.8% on the season to 5% in the last two weeks.

When starting against a righty hurler this year, Mickey Moniak has been pinch hit for 29% of the time.

Extreme groundball hitters like Mickey Moniak usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Chris Paddack.

Despite posting a .348 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Mickey Moniak has experienced some positive variance given the .034 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .314.

When it comes to plate discipline, Mickey Moniak’s skill is quite bad, sporting a 4.29 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 17th percentile.

Mickey Moniak’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off in recent games, going from 20.2% on the season to 10.5% over the past two weeks.

Batting from the same side that Chris Paddack throws from, Tyler Freeman will be at a disadvantage today.

Tyler Freeman’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls of late (0.2° over the last 14 days) is quite a bit worse than his 4.7° seasonal mark.

Tyler Freeman has been lucky this year, notching a .365 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .326 — a .039 disparity.

Tyler Freeman has paced 6.4 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 6th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Grading out in the 4th percentile for power, Tyler Freeman has hit 2.3 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Freeman in the 16th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

Tyler Freeman’s launch angle this year (8.3°) is considerably worse than his 12.9° figure last year.

Playing on the road typically lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Royce Lewis in today’s matchup.

Royce Lewis has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 11.3% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past week.

Royce Lewis’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off recently; his 93.1-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 86-mph in the past week.

From last season to this one, Royce Lewis’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 21.2% to 17.7%.

Michael Toglia’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Michael Toglia is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game.

In the last week, Michael Toglia’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.1% down to 0%.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.258) implies that Michael Toglia has experienced some positive variance this year with his .278 actual wOBA.

Posting a .196 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Michael Toglia has performed in the 2nd percentile.

In notching a .261 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Michael Toglia finds himself in the 7th percentile.

When it comes to plate discipline, Michael Toglia’s skill is quite bad, putting up a 4.76 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 11th percentile.

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