Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Cardinals vs D-Backs Matchup Today

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jose Herrera (the D-Backs’s expected catcher in today’s game) is considered to be a weak pitch framer.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best park in baseball for BABIP.

Brandon Pfaadt has relied on his slider 6.6% less often this year (20.7%) than he did last year (27.3%).

Brandon Pfaadt has recorded a 4.70 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that is concerned with the variables most within a pitcher’s control) this year, ranking in the 25th percentile.

Placing 7th-steepest in baseball this year, St. Louis Cardinals hitters collectively have posted a 15.3° launch angle (an advanced standard to study the ability to lift the ball for power).

Tallying 91.7 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Brandon Pfaadt places him the 79th percentile.

Considering that groundball hitters struggle against groundball pitchers, Brandon Pfaadt (35.8% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 GB hitters in the opposing team’s projected offense.

Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher stats in all categories, and Brandon Pfaadt will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Brandon Pfaadt’s 2565-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 99th percentile among all starters.

Chase Field projects as the #2 ballpark in baseball for left-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Victor Scott II will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Over the last week, Victor Scott II’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.8-mph over the course of the season to 92.6-mph of late.

Checking in at the 79th percentile, Victor Scott II has notched a .322 BABIP this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 12th-best batter in MLB.

Ketel Marte is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

Out of all the teams in action today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Ketel Marte will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Ketel Marte’s launch angle recently (21.6° in the last 14 days) is significantly better than his 14.3° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.

Chase Field ranks as the #2 ballpark in the game for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Willson Contreras’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, going from 17.6% on the season to 26.1% in the past two weeks.

Willson Contreras has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 18.8 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a good deal lower than his 26.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Eugenio Suarez projects as the 16th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Eugenio Suarez is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.

Eugenio Suarez has a ton of pop (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (28.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Andre Pallante has a pitch-to-contact profile (17th percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.

Extreme groundball hitters like Eugenio Suarez tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Andre Pallante.

Eugenio Suarez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Naylor in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Josh Naylor is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

Josh Naylor will hold the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Naylor in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Josh Naylor will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.

As it relates to plate discipline, Nolan Arenado’s skill is quite impressive, sporting a 1.45 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 87th percentile.

Nolan Arenado’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 14.8% to 18.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 77th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Over the past two weeks, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 18.4° compared to his seasonal mark of 14.8°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Geraldo Perdomo is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.

Geraldo Perdomo will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Compared to his seasonal average of 14.3°, Geraldo Perdomo has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 31.3° mark in the past week.

Geraldo Perdomo’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 13% to 20.9%.

Geraldo Perdomo has notched a .354 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, ranking in the 86th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 91st percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

Ivan Herrera is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.

This season, Ivan Herrera has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 99.8 mph compared to last year’s 91.5 mph mark.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Utilizing Statcast metrics, Ivan Herrera is in the 84th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 25.500.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Jose Herrera will hold that advantage in today’s game.

In terms of plate discipline, Jose Herrera’s ability is quite good, posting a 1.99 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 76th percentile.

Hitting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Jake McCarthy will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Jake McCarthy will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Jake McCarthy has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .216 figure is considerably lower than his .278 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake McCarthy in the 78th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Jake McCarthy’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 13.4% to 17.8%.

Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Nolan Gorman will have the upper hand today.

Nolan Gorman has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 11.7% seasonal rate to 20% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Over the last 14 days, Nolan Gorman’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.6-mph over the course of the season to 99.3-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Nolan Gorman as MLB’s 19th-best home run hitter.

Pedro Pages has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.6-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 88.6-mph EV.

Pedro Pages has been unlucky this year, notching a .257 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .281 — a .024 deviation.

The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected offense today (.322 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit worse than their .333 wOBA this year.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in future games,Projected catcher Pedro Pages grades out as a good pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Due to his reverse platoon split, Andre Pallante should be in good shape matching up with 7 batters in the projected batting order who hit from the other side in today’s game.

Considering that flyball batters struggle against flyball pitchers, Andre Pallante (59.7% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 3 FB hitters in the opposing club’s projected offense.

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Andre Pallante has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 8.6% more often this season (39.5%) than he did last year (30.9%).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Alec Burleson will have the handedness advantage over Brandon Pfaadt in today’s game.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Alec Burleson ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

There has been a significant improvement in Alec Burleson’s launch angle from last year’s 13.4° to 17.1° this year.

Alek Thomas will hold the platoon advantage over Andre Pallante in today’s game.

Alek Thomas will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which should improve all of his stats.

Alek Thomas has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 101.5-mph average over the last week to his seasonal figure of 91.3-mph.

Brendan Donovan’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.

Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Brendan Donovan will have the upper hand today.

Brendan Donovan’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 45.8% to 54.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

In the last 14 days, Brendan Donovan has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .347.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (16.9) may lead us to conclude that Brendan Donovan has experienced some negative variance this year with his 12.4 actual HR/600.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Corbin Carroll is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

Corbin Carroll will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Corbin Carroll will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Corbin Carroll has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, upping his 7.3% rate last season to 15.4% this year.

Masyn Winn’s launch angle this season (17.1°) is a significant increase over his 13° mark last year.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (16.0) suggests that Masyn Winn has been unlucky this year with his 11.7 actual HR/600.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 78th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Negative Match Player Stats with Cardinals vs D-Backs

The 3rd-deepest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Chase Field.

Among all major league stadiums, the 10th-tallest average fence height are at Chase Field.

Low humidity has a small but significant link with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the least humidity on the slate at 30%.

Brandon Pfaadt is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #28 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.

The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense projects as the best out of all the teams today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 8th-worst park in the league for strikeouts.

Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Victor Scott II in the 17th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

Victor Scott II is penciled in 9th in the batting order in today’s game.

The #5 park in the league for suppressing home runs to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Victor Scott II in the 21st percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

The switch-hitting Ketel Marte will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side (0) today against Andre Pallante,In today’s game, Ketel Marte is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.1% rate (93rd percentile).

Ketel Marte’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 96.8-mph mark last year has lowered to 94.4-mph.

Ketel Marte’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off recently; his 94.4-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 86.2-mph over the past two weeks.

Brandon Pfaadt will hold the platoon advantage over Willson Contreras today.

Willson Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 5th-worst ballpark in the league for RHB home runs.

Willson Contreras will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Hitting from the same side that Andre Pallante throws from, Eugenio Suarez will have a tough matchup in today’s matchup.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Eugenio Suarez has been very fortunate this year. His .373 rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .314.

By putting up a .249 BABIP this year, Eugenio Suarez has performed in the 8th percentile.

Eugenio Suarez has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 47.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is significantly inflated relative to his 29.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Josh Naylor pulls many of his flyballs (33.7% — 79th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

Josh Naylor has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph dropping to 83.6-mph over the last 14 days.

Josh Naylor’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 93.7-mph mark last season has fallen off to 88.9-mph.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.273) provides evidence that Josh Naylor has been lucky this year with his .294 actual batting average.

Nolan Arenado’s BABIP skill is projected in the 7th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Brandon Pfaadt will hold the platoon advantage against Nolan Arenado today.

Extreme groundball hitters like Nolan Arenado usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Brandon Pfaadt.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is penciled in 6th in the batting order today.

Andre Pallante will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Lourdes Gurriel Jr. today.

In the last 14 days, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.9% down to 0%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 17th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Over the last 7 days, Geraldo Perdomo’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.3% down to 0%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 18th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Geraldo Perdomo’s true offensive talent to be a .309, implying that he has been very fortunate this year given the .036 deviation between that mark and his actual .345 wOBA.

Batting from the same side that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Ivan Herrera will be at a disadvantage today.

Ivan Herrera has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Ivan Herrera in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Herrera in the 1st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Jose Herrera is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this game.

This year, Jose Herrera has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 12% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.

When it comes to his home run talent, Jake McCarthy ranks in the 8th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jake McCarthy is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.

Jake McCarthy has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 11% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.

Extreme groundball bats like Jake McCarthy tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Andre Pallante.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 14th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

Nolan Gorman is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game.

Nolan Gorman pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.6% — 86th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Extreme groundball hitters like Nolan Gorman tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Brandon Pfaadt.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Pedro Pages ranks in the 21st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Pedro Pages is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

10% of the time that Pedro Pages has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been pinch hit for.

Brandon Pfaadt will hold the platoon advantage over Pedro Pages in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically lowers pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Andre Pallante in today’s matchup.

With a 4.72 FIP this year (Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA estimator that is concerned with the aspects of pitching most within the pitcher’s control), Andre Pallante places in the 24th percentile.

Andre Pallante has been one of the luckiest hurlers in MLB on balls in play this year with a .262 BABIP and figures to see that luck normalize going forward.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Andre Pallante in the 7th percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 20.4% underlying K%.

Alec Burleson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Alec Burleson in today’s game.

Alec Burleson’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 91.5-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 89.3-mph over the past 7 days.

Alek Thomas is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this game.

This year, Alek Thomas has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 14% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

Extreme groundball bats like Alek Thomas tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Andre Pallante.

Brendan Donovan will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Brendan Donovan has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.6-mph dropping to 87.1-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

In terms of his home runs, Corbin Carroll has been very fortunate this year. His 34.9 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 30.4.

Masyn Winn is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

Batting from the same side that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Masyn Winn will have a tough challenge today.

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