Royals @ Twins Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positives for the Kansas City Royals Game Today

The #7 field in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.

The switch-hitting Brooks Lee will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Ryan Bergert.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Brooks Lee will hold that advantage today.

Over the past week, Brooks Lee’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.1% up to 14.3%.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Brooks Lee’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.3-mph over the course of the season to 97.7-mph lately.

Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in the league, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alan Roden in the 75th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Alan Roden is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Bergert throws from, Alan Roden will have an edge in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Alan Roden will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Alan Roden has made significant improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 2.3% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the last week’s worth of games.

Tony Randazzo grades out as a Pitchers Umpire and is scheduled to be behind the plate today.

Ryan Bergert’s 2406-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 78th percentile among all starters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Target Field as the 4th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for base hits.

With a 2.02 disparity between Ryan Bergert’s 2.83 ERA and his 4.85 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in MLB this year and figures to negatively regress going forward.

Ryan Bergert has posted a .205 BABIP this year, indicating that he has been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Keaschall in the 80th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Luke Keaschall is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.

The #7 field in baseball for boosting batting average to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.

Luke Keaschall will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

In the past week’s worth of games, Luke Keaschall’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.7-mph over the course of the season to 96.1-mph lately.

When assessing his home run ability, Salvador Perez ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Salvador Perez is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Salvador Perez’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.2-mph over the course of the season to 95.6-mph of late.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (33.1) suggests that Salvador Perez has had some very poor luck this year with his 26.0 actual HR/600.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Salvador Perez ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Batting from the opposite that Jose Urena throws from, Mike Yastrzemski will have an advantage in today’s game.

Mike Yastrzemski is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins only has 1 same-handed RP.

Mike Yastrzemski has made notable strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 8.1% seasonal rate to 15.8% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

In the past 14 days, Mike Yastrzemski’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.8-mph over the course of the season to 98-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Jeffers in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Ryan Jeffers is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Ryan Jeffers will hold that advantage today.

In the past week’s worth of games, Ryan Jeffers’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.4% up to 23.1%.

With 6 hitters who share his hand in the opposing team’s projected offense, Jose Urena should benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher stats across the board, and Jose Urena will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Over his previous 3 starts, Jose Urena has seen a substantial increase in his fastball spin rate: from 2124 rpm over the entire season to 2174 rpm in recent games.

Jose Urena’s 95.7-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 89th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jonathan India’s true offensive talent to be a .332, providing some evidence that he has been unlucky this year given the .032 disparity between that mark and his actual .300 wOBA.

When it comes to plate discipline, Jonathan India’s ability is quite strong, posting a 1.84 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 76th percentile.

When it comes to his home runs, Jonathan India has experienced some negative variance this year. His 7.8 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been quite a bit lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 13.8.

Kody Clemens has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (63% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Kody Clemens will have the handedness advantage against Ryan Bergert in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Kody Clemens will hold that advantage today.

Kyle Isbel will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Urena today.

The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Isbel has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bobby Witt Jr. ranks as the 9th-best hitter in the majors.

Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

In the past week’s worth of games, Bobby Witt Jr.’s maximum exit velocity (a strong measure of recent form and raw power) has been 112.9-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in the league.

As it relates to his home runs, Bobby Witt Jr. has had some very poor luck this year. His 20.3 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 26.5.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Larnach in the 80th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Trevor Larnach is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Trevor Larnach will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Bergert in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Trevor Larnach will hold that advantage today.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Royce Lewis ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Royce Lewis will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which should bolster all of his stats.

Royce Lewis has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 90.9-mph average to last year’s 87.1-mph EV.

Royce Lewis’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, going from 44.4% on the season to 55.6% over the last 14 days.

Maikel Garcia’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Maikel Garcia is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.

Maikel Garcia has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 94-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal mark of 90.3-mph.

Vinnie Pasquantino is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Jose Urena throws from, Vinnie Pasquantino will have an advantage in today’s game.

Vinnie Pasquantino may have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins has just 1 same-handed RP.

Sporting a 25.900 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Vinnie Pasquantino is ranked in the 80th percentile for power.

Negatives with the Minnesota Twins Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brooks Lee in the 17th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Brooks Lee is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Target Field has the 10th-deepest CF fences among all major league parks.

In Major League Baseball, the 5th-highest fence height (on average) are at Target Field.

By putting up a .284 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Brooks Lee finds himself in the 12th percentile for hitting ability.

Brooks Lee has put up a .284 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 15th percentile.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.230) implies that Alan Roden has had positive variance on his side this year with his .266 actual wOBA.

When estimating his home run skill, Alan Roden ranks in the 12th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Ryan Bergert is projected to throw 78 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 4th-least on the slate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Target Field as the 7th-worst field in the majors for strikeouts.

With 6 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Ryan Bergert will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

Playing on the road typically weakens pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ryan Bergert in today’s matchup.

It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the Minnesota Twins offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 9th-luckiest offense in the game this year.

In his last start, Ryan Bergert was in good form and allowed 2 ER.

Batting from the same side that Ryan Bergert throws from, Luke Keaschall will have a disadvantage today.

In the last week’s worth of games, Luke Keaschall’s swing has not been well optimized for base hits, hitting a mere 11.1% of his balls with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

Jose Urena will hold the platoon advantage over Salvador Perez today.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Salvador Perez in today’s game.

Salvador Perez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, falling from 17.6% to 14.5%.

Over the past 7 days, Salvador Perez’s 23.5% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 44.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mike Yastrzemski in the 13th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Mike Yastrzemski is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.

When starting against a right-handed pitcher since the start of last season, Mike Yastrzemski has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 21% of the time.

Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Mike Yastrzemski in today’s game.

Ryan Bergert will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Jeffers in today’s game.

Ryan Jeffers’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off of late, decreasing from 14% on the season to 4.8% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

When assessing his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Jose Urena in the 2nd percentile among all starting pitchers in the majors.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Jose Urena is projected to throw 76 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 3rd-least of all pitchers today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Kansas City Royals with a 19.6% underlying K%.

Jonathan India has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (98% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order today.

Jose Urena will have the handedness advantage over Jonathan India today.

Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jonathan India in today’s matchup.

Over the past 7 days, Jonathan India’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%.

Kody Clemens’s BABIP ability is projected in the 9th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

In today’s game, Kody Clemens is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.2% rate (91st percentile).

Kody Clemens has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 12.7% seasonal rate has dropped to 5.9% over the last week.

When it comes to his home runs, Kody Clemens has been lucky this year. His 33.5 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 25.8.

Kody Clemens has been lucky this year, notching a .337 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .314 — a .023 disparity.

Kody Clemens has compiled a .224 batting average this year, checking in at the 16th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Kyle Isbel ranks in the 13th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Kyle Isbel is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this matchup.

Kyle Isbel will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Kyle Isbel’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 87.4-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 85.3-mph in the past 7 days.

Jose Urena will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bobby Witt Jr. today.

Bobby Witt Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

In the past week, Bobby Witt Jr.’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.8% down to 7.1%.

Bobby Witt Jr.’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased in recent games, falling from 13.6% on the season to 0% in the past 7 days.

Trevor Larnach’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (6°) is significantly worse than his 12° angle last year.

Trevor Larnach’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined lately, decreasing from 13.9% on the season to 8.7% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Trevor Larnach has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 21.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is considerably higher than his 14.7 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Royce Lewis is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.

Hitting from the same side that Ryan Bergert throws from, Royce Lewis will be at a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

Over the past 7 days, Royce Lewis’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal EV of 92.8 mph to 87.4 mph.

By putting up a .290 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Royce Lewis is ranked in the 18th percentile.

Jose Urena will hold the platoon advantage over Maikel Garcia in today’s matchup.

Maikel Garcia hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Maikel Garcia in today’s matchup.

Maikel Garcia has been lucky this year, notching a .354 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .319 — a .035 disparity.

Vinnie Pasquantino’s BABIP skill is projected in the 10th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Vinnie Pasquantino will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Over the last week, Vinnie Pasquantino’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal average of 92.9 mph to 90.7 mph.

In the past 7 days, Vinnie Pasquantino’s 16.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 41.8%.

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