Todays Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Colorado at Cincinnati Series Game 3 Matchup Today

Jeimer Candelario is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

Great American Ball Park ranks as the #9 ballpark in MLB for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this match-up, the 5th-best of the day for bats.

Jeimer Candelario pulls many of his flyballs (38.1% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Jeimer Candelario will hold that advantage today.

Tallying 93.2 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Frankie Montas checks in at the 83rd percentile.

The weakest projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Colorado Rockies.

Frankie Montas will possess the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats in all categories.

In his last start, Frankie Montas was firing on all cylinders and allowed 2 ER.

Frankie Montas’s 94.5-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 75th percentile out of all starters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Blake Dunn in the 87th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

The #3 park in baseball for boosting offensive stats to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.

The 8th-shallowest LF dimensions among all stadiums are found in Great American Ball Park.

Batting from the opposite that Kyle Freeland throws from, Blake Dunn will have an advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 2nd-best batter in baseball as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.

Elly De La Cruz has big-time HR ability (85th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (31.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Kyle Freeland has a pitch-to-contact profile (8th percentile K%) — great news for De La Cruz.

Great American Ball Park grades out as the #3 park in MLB for overall left-handed offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The switch-hitting Michael Toglia will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Frankie Montas.

Charlie Blackmon is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.

Charlie Blackmon will hold the platoon advantage over Frankie Montas in today’s matchup.

The #3 venue in the league for boosting home runs to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.

It may be wise to expect better results for the Cincinnati Reds offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 7th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.

Elias Diaz, the Rockies’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, grades out as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Noelvi Marte in the 75th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

Batting from the opposite that Kyle Freeland throws from, Noelvi Marte will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Noelvi Marte will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan McMahon in the 85th percentile when assessing his home run ability.

Ryan McMahon is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Great American Ball Park projects as the #3 ballpark in baseball for lefty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Ryan McMahon will hold the platoon advantage against Frankie Montas today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Tovar in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Ezequiel Tovar is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Slater as the 7th-best batter in baseball when estimating his BABIP ability.

Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Freeland throws from, Austin Slater will have an edge today.

Austin Slater has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Spencer Steer ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Spencer Steer is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.

Spencer Steer will hold the platoon advantage against Kyle Freeland today.

Jake Cave’s BABIP ability is projected in the 79th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the opposite that Frankie Montas throws from, Jake Cave will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Jake Cave has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brenton Doyle in the 88th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Brenton Doyle has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan McMahon in the 79th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Great American Ball Park as the 9th-best park in MLB for left-handed batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Slater in the 78th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Batting from the opposite that Kyle Freeland throws from, Santiago Espinal will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Santiago Espinal has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Santiago Espinal will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Elias Diaz is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today’s game.

Brendan Rodgers is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

In the last week’s worth of games, Jake Cave’s 38.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.2%.

Charlie Blackmon’s launch angle recently (24.3° over the past 14 days) is a significant increase over his 16.8° seasonal figure.

Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Noelvi Marte has hit reached a maximum exit velocity of 115.6 mph (a reliable metric to assess power), checking in at the 96th percentile.

Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Elly De La Cruz will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The Colorado Rockies have 6 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ezequiel Tovar, Brenton Doyle, Jake Cave, Michael Toglia, Sam Hilliard, Ryan McMahon).

Given the 1.05 difference between Frankie Montas’s 7.22 K/9 and his 8.26 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the game this year in terms of strikeouts and ought to see better results in the future.

Brendan Rodgers’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Toglia in the 86th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Kyle Freeland has experienced some negative variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, posting a 5.35 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 6.91 — a 1.56 K/9 disparity.

Ezequiel Tovar’s launch angle this year (19.2°) is significantly higher than his 12.3° angle last season.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Blake Dunn will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Brenton Doyle has made significant improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 10.4% seasonal rate to 27.3% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Brenton Doyle’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.3-mph over the course of the season to 97.2-mph of late.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Elly De La Cruz ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Wednesday Series Game 3 player match stat slumps with Rockies vs Reds Matchup

The Colorado Rockies infield defense profiles as the 2nd-strongest among all the teams playing today.

Jeimer Candelario has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week.

Jeimer Candelario has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph dropping to 84-mph over the past 14 days.

Jeimer Candelario’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined in recent games, decreasing from 18.7% on the season to 4.5% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.305) suggests that Jeimer Candelario has had positive variance on his side this year with his .320 actual wOBA.

It may be wise to expect positive regression for the Colorado Rockies offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 9th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

The #2 ballpark in the game for boosting home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.

In MLB, Great American Ball Park’s RF dimensions are the 8th-shallowest.

The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams today.

Blake Dunn is projected to hit 9th in the lineup today.

The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will bat from his weak side (0) today against Kyle Freeland, Elly De La Cruz hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 11th-deepest CF fences today.

Colorado’s #2-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Elly De La Cruz, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

Over the last 7 days, Elly De La Cruz’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal average of 94.1 mph to 90.4 mph.

Michael Toglia’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 6th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Michael Toglia is projected to hit 8th in the lineup today.

Michael Toglia will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Michael Toglia has notched a .169 batting average this year, checking in at the 1st percentile.

When it comes to his home run skill, Charlie Blackmon ranks in the 22nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Charlie Blackmon hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 95th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Charlie Blackmon in today’s game.

In the past week, Charlie Blackmon’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.9% up to 13.3%.

Over the past 7 days, Charlie Blackmon’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal mark of 88.7 mph to 80.3 mph.

Jeimer Candelario has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs this year; his 25.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is considerably higher than his 22.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

With a 3.91 K/BB rate this year, Jeimer Candelario has displayed bad plate discipline, checking in at the 19th percentile.

Kyle Freeland performed well in his previous game started and conceded 1 ER.

Kyle Freeland’s fastball velocity has risen 3 mph this season (91.2 mph) over where it was last season (88.2 mph).

Considering the 2.04 difference between Kyle Freeland’s 6.62 ERA and his 4.59 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in MLB this year and should positively regress the rest of the season.

Kyle Freeland has been one of the unluckiest mound aces in the league on balls in play this year with a .334 BABIP and figures to see that luck normalize going forward.

Noelvi Marte is penciled in 6th in the batting order today.

Noelvi Marte hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Over the past 7 days, Noelvi Marte’s swing has not been well optimized for base hits, hitting a mere 15.4% of his balls with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.231) provides evidence that Noelvi Marte has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season with his .266 actual batting average.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Ryan McMahon in today’s matchup.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Ryan McMahon’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (3.7°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 9.8°.

Ryan McMahon has been lucky this year, posting a .347 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .315 — a .032 difference.

Frankie Montas will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ezequiel Tovar today.

Ezequiel Tovar will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Ezequiel Tovar has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.8% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last two weeks.

Ezequiel Tovar’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off in recent games, going from 44.9% on the season to 28.6% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Ezequiel Tovar has had some very good luck this year. His .310 rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .275.

Austin Slater has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (91% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today’s game.

Austin Slater has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 11.9% rate last season has lowered to 3.3% this season.

Austin Slater’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 93.6-mph mark last year has lowered to 90.7-mph.

Sporting a .157 Isolated Power (ISO) since the start of last season, Austin Slater is ranked in the 9th percentile.

Spencer Steer is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Colorado (#2-best of the day).

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.4) suggests that Spencer Steer has been very fortunate this year with his 21.0 actual HR/600.

Checking in at the 20th percentile, the hardest ball Spencer Steer has connected with this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 108 mph — an advanced indication of underlying power ability.

Jake Cave is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.

Jake Cave will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Jake Cave’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 89.3-mph figure last season has dropped off to 86.4-mph.

Jake Cave’s launch angle this year (5°) is considerably worse than his 15.1° figure last year.

Using Statcast data, Jake Cave grades out in the 16th percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .276.

Brenton Doyle is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game.

Hitting from the same side that Frankie Montas throws from, Brenton Doyle will have a disadvantage today.

Brenton Doyle will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Brenton Doyle has been lucky this year, putting up a .333 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .291 — a .042 discrepancy.

When assessing his home run ability, Santiago Espinal ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Santiago Espinal is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this game.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Santiago Espinal’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal mark of 87.5 mph to 83.5 mph.

Santiago Espinal’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last year to this one, falling from 44.8% to 38.4%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Charlie Blackmon in the 23rd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elias Diaz in the 16th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Frankie Montas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Elias Diaz today.

Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Elias Diaz in today’s game.

Elias Diaz’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 91.2-mph mark last year has fallen to 87.8-mph.

Elias Diaz’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased of late; his 87.8-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 80.4-mph in the last two weeks.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Elias Diaz ranks in the 25th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Batting from the same side that Frankie Montas throws from, Brendan Rodgers faces a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Brendan Rodgers hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Brendan Rodgers will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

In the past two weeks, Brendan Rodgers’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal average of 88.8 mph to 74.4 mph.

Brendan Rodgers’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, decreasing from 19.7% to 8.3%.

Noelvi Marte has been cold recently, posting a 83.1-mph average exit velocity in the last 14 days.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.282) may lead us to conclude that Noelvi Marte has been lucky since the start of last season with his .306 actual wOBA.

In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Noelvi Marte ranks in just the 6th percentile with a 2.9° launch angle, which is among the most groundball-inducing angles in Major League Baseball.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 8th-worst field in Major League Baseball for strikeouts.

The Colorado Rockies have done a poor job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 10.6° angle is among the lowest in baseball this year (#29 overall).

Michael Toglia has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 35.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a fair amount higher than his 30.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Kyle Freeland in the 19th percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.

The Cincinnati Reds have 9 hitters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage over Kyle Freeland in today’s game.

Ezequiel Tovar’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 88.2-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 83.6-mph over the last two weeks.

Elly De La Cruz’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off in recent games, decreasing from 14.6% on the season to 0% in the last 7 days.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Santiago Espinal ranks in the 25th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Santiago Espinal has been cold of late, putting up a 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to study power) in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Santiago Espinal has put up a .219 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 1st percentile.

Elly De La Cruz has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .350 rate is a good deal higher than his .332 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.