Red Sox @ Cardinals Series Game 3 2025 WorldSeries Matchup Details

Positives for the Boston Red Sox World Series Game 3 Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Jarren Duran is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.

Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest fences among all major league stadiums.

As far as temperature and humidity go, the 2nd-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 17.1-mph in this contest, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Carlos Narvaez has averaged an impressive 96.4-mph exit velocity on his flyballs, an advanced indicator of home run potential.

JJ Wetherholt is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.

JJ Wetherholt will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello today.

JJ Wetherholt hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Thomas Saggese in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Thomas Saggese will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Over the last 14 days, Thomas Saggese has been successful in optimizing the launch angle of his hardest hit balls to hit for power, posting a 22.1° angle.

Throwing 91.7 adjusted pitches per GS since the start of last season on average, Andre Pallante checks in at the 77th percentile.

Pedro Pages, the Cardinals’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, grades out as a good pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Andre Pallante will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which should boost all of his metrics in all categories.

Andre Pallante has added a change-up to his arsenal this season and has worked it in 8.5% of the time.

Caleb Durbin has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (82% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Caleb Durbin hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Masyn Winn will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (13.2) suggests that Masyn Winn has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his 9.2 actual HR/600.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Alec Burleson ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.

Ceddanne Rafaela hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 90th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (21.6) implies that Ceddanne Rafaela has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his 16.3 actual HR/600.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony as the 12th-best batter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Roman Anthony is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 77th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Trevor Story has compiled a .318 BABIP since the start of last season, placing in the 79th percentile.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Ramon Urias will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Ramon Urias has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 106.8-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal EV of 98.9-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 93rd percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Jordan Walker is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 94th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

In the past week’s worth of games, Masyn Winn’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.3% up to 12.5%.

Compared to the average pitcher, Brayan Bello has been given more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an extra 3.3 adjusted pitches each start.

The 3rd-weakest projected offense of the day in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 8th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward,Busch Stadium projects as the #30 venue in baseball for home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Ramon Urias has been hot in recent games, posting a a 23.1% Barrel% (an advanced metric to evaluate power) in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 78th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Trevor Story has strong power (78th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (28.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Andre Pallante has a pitch-to-contact profile (22nd percentile K%) — great news for Story.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcelo Mayer in the 77th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Batting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Marcelo Mayer will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Marcelo Mayer’s footspeed has increased this year. His 27.47 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.05 ft/sec now.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 80th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.6% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

Putting up a 91.7-mph average exit velocity in the past two weeks’ worth of games, Marcelo Mayer has been in great form recently.

Hitting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Jarren Duran will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Ceddanne Rafaela’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Wilyer Abreu will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante in today’s matchup.

Alec Burleson will have the handedness advantage over Brayan Bello in today’s matchup.

Caleb Durbin has exhibited impressive plate discipline since the start of last season, ranking in the 85th percentile with a 1.63 K/BB rate.

When estimating his home run ability, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Nolan Gorman is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Willson Contreras is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.

Hitting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Roman Anthony will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Over the last 14 days, Willson Contreras’s swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 56% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

Nolan Gorman will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today’s matchup.

Since the start of last season, Carlos Narvaez has an average exit velocity of 91.2 mph, which ranks among the elite in MLB at the 81st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jordan Walker, Pedro Pages, Nolan Gorman).

Brayan Bello’s four-seamer utilization has fallen by 11.8% from last year to this one (15.2% to 3.4%) .

Brayan Bello has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts since the start of last season, notching a 6.75 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.49 — a 0.74 K/9 disparity.

Extreme groundball batters like Nolan Gorman tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

Negatives with the St. Louis Cardinals World Series Game 3 Game Today

The #1 stadium in the majors for suppressing home runs to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium.

Jarren Duran has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.

Jarren Duran will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Checking in at the 25th percentile for power, Jarren Duran has paced 13.2 long-balls per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Narvaez in the 19th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Carlos Narvaez is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Busch Stadium as the worst venue in Major League Baseball for righty home runs.

Andre Pallante will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Narvaez in today’s game.

Carlos Narvaez has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 2nd-deepest RF fences today.

The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-best among all the teams today.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, JJ Wetherholt has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

JJ Wetherholt has shown some bad exit velocity benchmarks of late, averaging just 104-mph on the top 5% of his batted balls in the past two weeks.

Over the past 7 days, JJ Wetherholt’s swing has not been well optimized for base hits, hitting a mere 30.8% of his balls with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

Thomas Saggese is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game.

Batting from the same side that Brayan Bello throws from, Thomas Saggese meets a tough challenge today.

Thomas Saggese has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and will be challenged by MLB’s 2nd-deepest RF fences today.

Over the past week, Thomas Saggese has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to study power).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Andre Pallante in the 2nd percentile as it relates to his strikeout skill.

Chad Fairchild grades out as a Hitters Umpire and is expected to be behind the plate in this game.

The #2 field in the game for suppressing strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium.

When assessing his home run skill, Caleb Durbin ranks in the 10th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Andre Pallante will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Caleb Durbin in today’s matchup.

Caleb Durbin will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Caleb Durbin’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, falling from 13.5% to 3.4%.

Masyn Winn is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.

Long-balls are generally less common at fields with deep fences, and Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest in the league.

Batting from the same side that Brayan Bello throws from, Masyn Winn will have a tough matchup today.

There has been a significant decline in Alec Burleson’s launch angle from last year’s 15.2° to 11.1° this season.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Alec Burleson has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His .342 mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .321.

Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this matchup.

Hitting from the same side that Andre Pallante throws from, Ceddanne Rafaela will have a tough matchup in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ceddanne Rafaela in today’s matchup.

Ceddanne Rafaela’s launch angle this season (9.6°) is quite a bit worse than his 12.9° angle last season.

The 2nd-deepest right field dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Busch Stadium.

Extreme flyball hitters like Roman Anthony tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Andre Pallante.

Roman Anthony will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

This season, Roman Anthony’s Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 15.6% last year to just 10.3% this year.

Trevor Story has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (92% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.

Andre Pallante will hold the platoon advantage over Trevor Story in today’s game.

Trevor Story has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.1%) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Trevor Story in today’s game.

Trevor Story’s average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 91.3-mph EV last season has lowered to 88.7-mph.

Ramon Urias is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

Brayan Bello will have the handedness advantage against Ramon Urias in today’s game.

Masyn Winn has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph dropping to 81.3-mph in the last week.

Brayan Bello will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jordan Walker in today’s matchup.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.208) suggests that Jordan Walker has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his .226 actual batting average.

Jordan Walker has posted a .273 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, placing in the 8th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Today, Wilyer Abreu is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36% rate (87th percentile).

Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Wilyer Abreu in today’s game.

Wilyer Abreu has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .264 rate is a fair amount higher than his .230 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

In the last week, Alec Burleson’s swing has not been well optimized for base hits, hitting a mere 25% of his balls with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

Alec Burleson has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .286 mark is considerably higher than his .261 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Brayan Bello will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Based on Statcast data, Ramon Urias grades out in the 23rd percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .298.

Carlos Narvaez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

Marcelo Mayer is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.

This year, Marcelo Mayer has been pulled from the game early in 26% of his appearances when starting against righty hurler.

Marcelo Mayer has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Marcelo Mayer will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Marcelo Mayer has done a bad job optimizing his launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls. His 2.1° angle is among the lowest in baseball since the start of last season (5th percentile).

Sporting a .281 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Jordan Walker is ranked in the 14th percentile.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.323) may lead us to conclude that Wilyer Abreu has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his .348 actual wOBA.

When it comes to plate discipline, Jordan Walker’s talent is quite poor, sporting a 4.28 K/BB rate since the start of last season while placing in in the 14th percentile.

From last season to this one, Ceddanne Rafaela’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 42% to 37%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Caleb Durbin in the 10th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Caleb Durbin has been cold lately, putting up a 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to assess power) over the past 14 days.

Today, Nolan Gorman is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.8% rate (86th percentile).

Nolan Gorman’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 89.5-mph mark last year has dropped off to 86.2-mph.

Nolan Gorman’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined lately; his 97.5-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 90.8-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

Nolan Gorman’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, decreasing from 18.9% to 11.1%.

Andre Pallante will hold the platoon advantage over Willson Contreras today.

Willson Contreras will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Willson Contreras’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, decreasing from 17.6% to 10.7%.

Roman Anthony’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 94.5-mph mark last season has lowered to 90.2-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 4th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Nolan Gorman is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Boston (#2-best on the slate today).

The Boston Red Sox have been the 8th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future,Ceddanne Rafaela has been cold of late, putting up a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power) in the last 7 days.

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