Red Sox @ Cardinals 2025 WorldSeries Matchup Details

Positives for the Boston Red Sox World Game Today

In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height.

Ceddanne Rafaela hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 90th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Ceddanne Rafaela has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 99.5-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal mark of 91.4-mph.

Ceddanne Rafaela has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 16.5 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit lower than his 21.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Victor Scott II will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Victor Scott II has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .272 figure is a fair amount lower than his .296 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Ramon Urias is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

Ramon Urias will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Connelly Early in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Ramon Urias will hold that advantage today.

Marcelo Mayer’s BABIP skill is projected in the 79th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Marcelo Mayer will have the handedness advantage over Dustin May in today’s game.

Over the last 14 days, Marcelo Mayer’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 16.7% up to 16.7%.

Marcelo Mayer has been zeroed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs of late, striking balls between 23° and 34° 44.4% of the time in the last 7 days.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.244) may lead us to conclude that Marcelo Mayer has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .218 actual batting average.

Posting a 96-mph average exit velocity over the last week, Carlos Narvaez has been in great form lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Willson Contreras is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.

Over the past 7 days, Willson Contreras has displayed impressive power, recording a a 25% Barrel% (an advanced standard to study power).

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (28.0) provides evidence that Willson Contreras has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his 21.6 actual HR/600.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Dustin May throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an advantage in today’s game.

Wilyer Abreu has made significant gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 12.4% rate last season to 20% this year.

Over the last 7 days, Wilyer Abreu’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.3-mph over the course of the season to 100.9-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 75th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Masyn Winn is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.

Masyn Winn will hold the platoon advantage against Connelly Early in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Masyn Winn will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Connelly Early throws from, Yohel Pozo will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Yohel Pozo will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Ranking in the 82nd percentile, Marcelo Mayer has put up a .290 Isolated Power rate (ISO) since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 96th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

Thomas Saggese’s BABIP skill is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the opposite that Connelly Early throws from, Thomas Saggese will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

Thomas Saggese will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Thomas Saggese has been optimizing his launch angle on his hardest hit balls quite well recently, posting a 40° angle on such balls over the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 89th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Jordan Walker is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Connelly Early throws from, Jordan Walker will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.5% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

Jarren Duran’s BABIP talent is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jarren Duran is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

Jarren Duran will have the handedness advantage over Dustin May in today’s matchup.

Jarren Duran’s maximum exit velocity (a reliable metric to assess power) has been 117.7 mph since the start of last season, placing in the 97th percentile.

In notching a .322 BABIP since the start of last season, Jarren Duran is positioned in the 83rd percentile.

Pedro Pages is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

Pedro Pages will hold the platoon advantage against Connelly Early in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Over the past two weeks, Victor Scott II’s swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 66.7% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.243) implies that Victor Scott II has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .220 actual batting average.

The Boston Red Sox (24.7% K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 5th-most strikeout-heavy set of batters of all teams on the slate.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Pedro Pages (the Cardinals’s expected catcher in today’s game) profiles as a good pitch framer.

Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher stats in all categories, and Dustin May will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Ceddanne Rafaela has been honed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs in recent games, striking balls between 23° and 34° 22.7% of the time in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Roman Anthony ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Roman Anthony is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.

Roman Anthony will hold the platoon advantage over Dustin May in today’s matchup.

Roman Anthony’s launch angle this season (11.3°) is considerably better than his 6.9° angle last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 79th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

Trevor Story is penciled in 5th in the batting order today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s assessment, Connelly Early’s overall pitching ability grades out in the 89th percentile among all starters in the league currently.

The weakest projected lineup of all teams today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the St. Louis Cardinals.

It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the St. Louis Cardinals offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 9th-luckiest offense in the league this year.

Busch Stadium grades out as the #30 ballpark in the game for home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

When estimating his BABIP skill, Roman Anthony is projected as the 9th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Roman Anthony’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 46.8% to 53.8%.

Trevor Story has recorded a .320 BABIP since the start of last season, ranking in the 82nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.

Alec Burleson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

Alec Burleson will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

Masyn Winn has been unlucky in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 9.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a good deal lower than his 13.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

In terms of his home runs, Thomas Saggese has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His 3.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 7.8.

When it comes to his home runs, Jarren Duran has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His 13.1 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been considerably lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.1.

Over the past week, Alec Burleson’s maximum exit velocity (a favorable proxy for recent form and raw power) has been 111-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in baseball.

Thomas Saggese ranks in the 89th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (18.9% rate since the start of last season).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 78th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Jordan Walker will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Trevor Story’s BABIP talent is projected in the 77th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jarren Duran ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

When assessing his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Connelly Early in the 78th percentile among all starters in baseball.

The St. Louis Cardinals have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Victor Scott II, Thomas Saggese, Jordan Walker, Pedro Pages).

Connelly Early has recorded a 13.4% Swinging Strike percentage since the start of last season, checking in at the 88th percentile.

As it relates to his batting average, Willson Contreras has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .257 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .281.

Since the start of last season, Willson Contreras’s 13.7% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 86th percentile among his peers.

Using Statcast metrics, Roman Anthony grades out in the 94th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .371.

Since the start of last season, Carlos Narvaez has an average exit velocity of 91.3 mph, which ranks among the elite in MLB at the 83rd percentile.

Boston’s 90.2-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the elite in the league: #3 overall.

Negatives with the St. Louis Cardinals World Game Today

Ceddanne Rafaela is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game.

Busch Stadium projects as the #30 venue in the majors for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 5th-most suitable for pitching on the slate today.

Dustin May will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ceddanne Rafaela in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ceddanne Rafaela in today’s game.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Victor Scott II ranks in the 8th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Victor Scott II is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this matchup.

Busch Stadium grades out as the #30 ballpark in MLB for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Hitting from the same side that Connelly Early throws from, Victor Scott II will have a disadvantage today.

Dingers are generally less common at venues with deep fences, and Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest among all major league parks.

The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best out of all the teams in action today.

Ramon Urias’s footspeed has declined this season. His 27.03 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.3 ft/sec now.

Marcelo Mayer is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.

Marcelo Mayer has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Marcelo Mayer today.

Marcelo Mayer and his 2.1° launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls rank in 5th percentile, among the lowest in the game since the start of last season.

Carlos Narvaez’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 21st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Carlos Narvaez is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card today.

Batting from the same side that Dustin May throws from, Carlos Narvaez will be in a tough position today.

Dustin May will have the handedness advantage over Willson Contreras in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Willson Contreras in today’s matchup.

Ramon Urias has compiled a .298 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 23rd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Placing in the 21st percentile, the hardest ball Ramon Urias has made contact with since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 109.4 mph — a reliable indication of underlying power ability.

In today’s game, Wilyer Abreu is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36% rate (87th percentile).

Wilyer Abreu will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Wilyer Abreu’s launch angle this year (17.4°) is significantly lower than his 23° figure last year.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.230) suggests that Wilyer Abreu has been very fortunate since the start of last season with his .260 actual batting average.

From last year to this one, Masyn Winn’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 14.8% to 8%.

Yohel Pozo’s BABIP talent is projected in the 2nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Yohel Pozo is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

Thomas Saggese is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.

Thomas Saggese has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.8%) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences today.

Jordan Walker has put up a .273 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 8th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jordan Walker has compiled a .276 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, ranking in the 10th percentile.

Jordan Walker has put up a .344 Slugging Percentage (SLG) since the start of last season, grading out in the 14th percentile.

In today’s game, Jarren Duran is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.6% rate (93rd percentile).

Jarren Duran will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

In the past two weeks, Jarren Duran’s swing has not been well optimized for base hits, hitting a mere 25% of his balls with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

Jarren Duran and his 5.4° launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls rank in 7th percentile, among the lowest in MLB since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pedro Pages in the 9th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

In today’s game, Pedro Pages is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.7% rate (86th percentile).

Today, Victor Scott II is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.2% rate (82nd percentile).

In the last week’s worth of games, Pedro Pages’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.1% down to 0%.

The #2 ballpark in MLB for suppressing strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium.

Dustin May has used his slider 16.4% less often this year (23.6%) than he did last season (40%).

Dustin May has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts since the start of last season, compiling an 8.38 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.96 — a 0.42 K/9 deviation.

Grading out in the 8th percentile, Dustin May notched a 7.9% Swinging Strike rate since the start of last season.

The 2nd-deepest right field dimensions among all parks are found in Busch Stadium.

Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Roman Anthony in today’s game.

Roman Anthony’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 94.5-mph EV last season has dropped off to 90.1-mph.

Dustin May will have the handedness advantage against Trevor Story in today’s game.

Trevor Story will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connelly Early to throw 84 pitches today (5th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

The St. Louis Cardinals have 7 batters in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Connelly Early in this game.

Connelly Early will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

The maximum exit velocity of any player on the St. Louis Cardinals has been 117.9 mph since the start of last season, putting them as the #7 team in the game by this standard.

Connelly Early will hold the platoon advantage against Alec Burleson today.

There has been a significant decline in Alec Burleson’s launch angle from last year’s 15.2° to 11.5° this season.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Alec Burleson has been lucky since the start of last season. His .342 figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .321.

Ceddanne Rafaela’s footspeed has fallen off this year. His 29.12 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.97 ft/sec now.

Masyn Winn has been cold recently, compiling a 0% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) over the past two weeks.

Thomas Saggese has been cold lately, putting up a 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) in the last 7 days.

Alec Burleson’s speed has fallen off this season. His 25.54 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.53 ft/sec now.

Dustin May allowed a whopping 6 earned runs in his last start.

Dustin May has compiled a 5.03 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the variables most within a pitcher’s control) since the start of last season, checking in at the 14th percentile.

Carlos Narvaez has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his batting average, Jordan Walker has been lucky since the start of last season. His .223 rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .208.

Trevor Story’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 91.3-mph mark last year has decreased to 88.4-mph.

Jarren Duran has been optimizing his launch angle on his hardest hit balls quite poorly lately, compiling a 6.1° angle on such balls over the last 14 days.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Yohel Pozo ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Roman Anthony has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .283 rate is inflated compared to his .264 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

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