Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Rangers vs Rays Series Game 3 Matchup Today

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s evaluation, Jack Leiter’s overall pitching talent ranks in the 21st percentile among all starting pitchers in MLB currently.

It is likely that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Charlie Ramos) behind the plate in this game.

George M. Steinbrenner Field has the shortest fences among all stadiums.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 3rd-hottest temperature of all games today at 84°.

Because groundball batters have a big edge over flyball pitchers, Jack Leiter and his 37.3% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a difficult position in today’s outing facing 3 opposing GB hitters.

The Tampa Bay Rays (23.8% K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 4th-most strikeout-heavy batting order of the day.

Jack Leiter has experienced some negative variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, putting up a 6.94 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.21 — a 1.26 K/9 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Junior Caminero is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Extreme groundball hitters like Junior Caminero generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jack Leiter.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Junior Caminero will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 97th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Wyatt Langford is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Wyatt Langford has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 91.7-mph EV.

Last season, Wyatt Langford had an average launch angle of 11.5° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 18.3°.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 12th-best hitter in MLB.

Corey Seager is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Corey Seager will have the handedness advantage over Ryan Pepiot today.

In the past week, Corey Seager’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.9-mph over the course of the season to 97.2-mph lately.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Marcus Semien ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Marcus Semien has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.4-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 88.6-mph figure.

Last season, Marcus Semien had an average launch angle of 13.5° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 16.8°.

Over the last week, Marcus Semien’s 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 46.9%.

Compared to his seasonal average of 19.1°, Marcus Semien has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 23.6° angle in the last two weeks.

Jonah Heim has made significant strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 6.8% seasonal rate to 12.5% in the past 14 days.

Jonah Heim’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, rising from 14.6% on the season to 25% in the last 14 days.

When estimating his batting average skill, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 15th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.

Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

Extreme groundball hitters like Yandy Diaz tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jack Leiter.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Yandy Diaz ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 89th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.

Brandon Lowe will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jack Leiter today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Brandon Lowe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

As it relates to his home run skill, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Adolis Garcia’s launch angle this season (21.2°) is quite a bit better than his 14.8° mark last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Adolis Garcia’s true offensive talent to be a .323, indicating that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .051 difference between that mark and his actual .272 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 79th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Ranked in the 89th percentile, Adolis Garcia has one of the highest average exit velocities in the majors this year (92.4-mph).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Danny Jansen in the 76th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Danny Jansen will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Compared to his seasonal average of 23.2°, Danny Jansen has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 36.4° mark over the last two weeks.

In terms of plate discipline, Danny Jansen’s skill is quite good, posting a 1.46 K/BB rate since the start of last season while placing in in the 94th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Lowe in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Josh Lowe is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.

Hitting from the opposite that Jack Leiter throws from, Josh Lowe will have an edge today.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Josh Lowe ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Josh Lowe will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Jake Burger as MLB’s 18th-best home run hitter.

Jake Burger has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 13.6% seasonal rate to 21.2% in the past 14 days.

Jake Burger has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98.1-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 90.9-mph average.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jake Burger ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Over the past two weeks, Jake Burger’s 27.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 11.9%.

It may be smart to expect better numbers for the Texas Rangers offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in MLB this year.

Ryan Pepiot has experienced some positive variance in regards to his ERA this year; his 3.21 rate is a fair amount lower than his 4.36 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

Tallying 17.5 outs per start this year on average, Ryan Pepiot places in the 87th percentile.

Ryan Pepiot was on point in his previous game started and notched 8 strikeouts.

Out of all starters, Ryan Pepiot’s fastball spin rate of 2398 rpm ranks in the 77th percentile this year.

Considering the 1.33 disparity between Ryan Pepiot’s 7.20 K/9 and his 8.53 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game this year in terms of strikeouts and figures to perform better in future games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Jung in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Josh Jung has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today’s game.

Compared to last year, Josh Jung has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 16.8% to 21.3% this season.

In the last 14 days, Josh Jung’s 64.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48.2%.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Josh Jung ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.

Jonathan Aranda will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jack Leiter in today’s game.

Jonathan Aranda will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Jose Caballero will hold that advantage today.

Jose Caballero has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 85.7-mph average to last season’s 83.5-mph mark.

Jose Caballero’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 19.4% on the season to 29.2% over the last 14 days.

Jose Caballero’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 43.9% to 51.6%.

Josh Smith is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Josh Smith will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Extreme groundball hitters like Jake Mangum tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jack Leiter.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Jake Mangum will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Jake Mangum has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 4.3% seasonal rate to 11.1% in the past week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Kameron Misner will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jack Leiter in today’s matchup.

Kameron Misner will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which should boost all of his stats.

Over the last week, Kameron Misner’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.8% up to 25%.

Negative Match Player Stats with Rangers vs Rays Series Game 3

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks George M. Steinbrenner Field as the 7th-worst field in Major League Baseball for batting average.

Among all major league stadiums, George M. Steinbrenner Field’s CF fences are the 5th-deepest.

In his last start, Jack Leiter was firing on all cylinders and conceded 1 ER.

Jack Leiter’s 96.8-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 97th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

Jack Leiter’s 2395-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 77th percentile among all starting pitchers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jack Leiter to throw 85 pitches in this game (5th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

Jack Leiter will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

The #7 field in the game for suppressing offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is George M. Steinbrenner Field.

Batting from the same side that Jack Leiter throws from, Junior Caminero has a tough challenge today.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (26.4) provides evidence that Junior Caminero has experienced some positive variance this year with his 36.4 actual HR/600.

Placing in the 20th percentile, Junior Caminero sports a .261 BABIP this year.

The #7 ballpark in Major League Baseball for suppressing batting average to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is George M. Steinbrenner Field.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Junior Caminero has been very fortunate this year. His .342 rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .313.

Sporting a 3.62 K/BB rate this year, Junior Caminero has displayed poor plate discipline, grading out in the 23rd percentile.

Junior Caminero’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (6.2°) is significantly worse than his 9.3° figure last season.

Hitting from the same side that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Wyatt Langford will have a tough challenge in today’s game.

In today’s matchup, Wyatt Langford is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.5% rate (85th percentile).

Wyatt Langford will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

In the past week’s worth of games, Wyatt Langford’s 22.2% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 38.4%.

Corey Seager will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Corey Seager’s launch angle in recent games (-3.3° in the last 7 days) is quite a bit worse than his 11.1° seasonal angle.

This year, there has been a decline in Corey Seager’s footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.34 ft/sec last year to 24.02 ft/sec currently.

George M. Steinbrenner Field ranks as the #24 field in the league for lefty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Marcus Semien is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

Ryan Pepiot will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Marcus Semien in today’s matchup.

In today’s matchup, Marcus Semien is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.8% rate (96th percentile).

Typically, bats like Marcus Semien who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Ryan Pepiot.

Marcus Semien will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

Jonah Heim’s BABIP skill is projected in the 4th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jonah Heim is penciled in 9th in the lineup in today’s game.

The switch-hitting Jonah Heim will be at a disadvantage batting from his weak side (0) today against Ryan Pepiot,Jonah Heim hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 86th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 5th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Jonah Heim ranks in the 25th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jonah Heim in today’s game.

Hitting from the same side that Jack Leiter throws from, Yandy Diaz will be in a tough position in today’s matchup.

Yandy Diaz has recorded a .248 BABIP this year, checking in at the 13th percentile.

In the past 7 days, Brandon Lowe’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal average of 93.8 mph to 90.7 mph.

Brandon Lowe’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined of late, falling from 16.2% on the season to 0% in the last 7 days.

Brandon Lowe has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 28.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is inflated compared to his 24.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

As it relates to plate discipline, Brandon Lowe’s skill is quite bad, posting a 3.92 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 20th percentile.

Adolis Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (71% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.

Batting from the same side that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Adolis Garcia will have a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

Adolis Garcia will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Adolis Garcia’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls of late (5.8° over the past two weeks) is quite a bit lower than his 12.5° seasonal angle.

Danny Jansen is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.

Hitting from the same side that Jack Leiter throws from, Danny Jansen will not have the upper hand in today’s game.

Danny Jansen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.4% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.

Extreme flyball batters like Danny Jansen are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Jack Leiter.

Danny Jansen’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 87.3-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 79.5-mph over the past week.

Danny Jansen’s BABIP ability is projected in the 1st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Josh Lowe has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.

In the past week’s worth of games, Josh Lowe’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 8.5%.

From last year to this one, Josh Lowe’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 14.7% to 8.5%.

Jake Burger is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today’s game.

Ryan Pepiot will have the handedness advantage against Jake Burger in today’s matchup.

Jake Burger will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Posting a .295 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Jake Burger has performed in the 23rd percentile for offensive ability.

Home field advantage generally improves pitcher metrics across the board, and Ryan Pepiot will hold that advantage in today’s game.

In his previous start, Ryan Pepiot was rolling and gave up 1 ER.

Ryan Pepiot’s four-seam fastball rate has fallen by 6.9% from last year to this one (50.7% to 43.8%) .

Ryan Pepiot will have the handedness advantage against Josh Jung in today’s game.

Today, Josh Jung is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.2% rate (98th percentile).

Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Josh Jung in today’s game.

Josh Jung’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 94.9-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 78.5-mph in the past 7 days.

Josh Jung’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (6.8° over the last 14 days) is a significant dropoff from his 16.2° seasonal mark.

Jonathan Aranda has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 11.2% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last week.

Over the past two weeks, Jonathan Aranda’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal figure of 93.3 mph to 87.2 mph.

Over the last 14 days, Jonathan Aranda’s 8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.5%.

Despite posting a .397 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jonathan Aranda has been very fortunate given the .064 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .333.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Caballero in the 22nd percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Jose Caballero is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this game.

Jack Leiter will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Caballero in today’s matchup.

Jose Caballero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.2% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.

Josh Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 85th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-deepest CF fences today.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Josh Smith in today’s matchup.

Over the past 14 days, Josh Smith’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal EV of 91.7 mph to 86.8 mph.

Josh Smith’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (9°) is significantly worse than his 13.2° mark last year.

Josh Smith’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off lately, going from 12.6% on the season to 7.7% in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 3rd percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

Jake Mangum is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.

As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the dish, Jake Mangum will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side against Jack Leiter in today’s game.

Jake Mangum has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Jake Mangum’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 87.2-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 82.3-mph over the past week.

Kameron Misner’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Kameron Misner is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in today’s game.

This year, Kameron Misner has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 21% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kameron Misner in the 18th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Kameron Misner’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 87.7-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 82.9-mph in the past week.

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