Pirates @ Orioles Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positives for the Pittsburgh Pirates Game Today

As it relates to his home run ability, Colton Cowser ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #8 venue in the game for LHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast expects for the best hitting conditions of all games today.

Colton Cowser will have the handedness advantage over Johan Oviedo in today’s game.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Colton Cowser can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 90th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Colton Cowser will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 5th-best venue in the league for run-scoring.

Cam Devanney will hold the platoon advantage over Cade Povich today.

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 5th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles.

In the last week’s worth of games, Cam Devanney has posted a 50° launch angle, lifting the ball well and indicating strong home run potential.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #8 venue in MLB for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

As it relates to his home run talent, Coby Mayo ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Coby Mayo will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Coby Mayo ranks in the 88th percentile with a 20.3° launch angle, which is one of the most flyball-inducing angles in the league.

Coby Mayo’s launch angle in recent games (24.3° in the past week) is significantly higher than his 20.3° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Beavers in the 78th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Dylan Beavers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Johan Oviedo in today’s game.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Dylan Beavers stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

Dylan Beavers will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

It may be best to expect better results for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 4th-best park in Major League Baseball for home runs.

The shallowest RF fences among all parks are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Cam Devanney, Alexander Canario, Henry Davis).

Cade Povich was rolling in his last GS and accumulated 8 strikeouts.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 90th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Jackson Holliday is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

Jackson Holliday will have the handedness advantage against Johan Oviedo in today’s game.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jackson Holliday stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Jackson Holliday ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Samuel Basallo has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (87% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Johan Oviedo throws from, Samuel Basallo will have the upper hand in today’s game.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Samuel Basallo has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Samuel Basallo will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Mountcastle in the 96th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Ryan Mountcastle is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.

Ryan Mountcastle has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s shallowest RF fences today.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Ryan Mountcastle ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ryan Mountcastle will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Bryan Reynolds ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

In the past week’s worth of games, Bryan Reynolds’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.8% up to 18.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 97th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Bryan Reynolds has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 105.3-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal EV of 94-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Pham in the 79th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Tommy Pham is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, Tommy Pham will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

Tommy Pham hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

In his previous start, Johan Oviedo performed well and gave up 2 ER.

Playing on the road typically lessens pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Johan Oviedo in today’s matchup.

The Baltimore Orioles (25.2% K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-most strikeout-prone set of hitters on the slate today.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Andrew McCutchen is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Andrew McCutchen will have the handedness advantage against Cade Povich today.

Andrew McCutchen hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

Batting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, Alexander Canario will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Alexander Canario has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .263 mark is a good deal lower than his .314 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

This year, Alexander Canario’s 12.8% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 85th percentile among his peers.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (24.8) may lead us to conclude that Alexander Canario has had some very poor luck this year with his 14.4 actual HR/600.

Jeremiah Jackson is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

Jeremiah Jackson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Jeremiah Jackson will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Jeremiah Jackson has made big strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 9.9% seasonal rate to 15.2% over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Gonzales in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

Nick Gonzales is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, Nick Gonzales will have an advantage in today’s game.

Nick Gonzales’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased lately, increasing from 15.7% on the season to 25% over the last 7 days.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Gunnar Henderson is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.

Gunnar Henderson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Johan Oviedo today.

Gunnar Henderson may have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Pittsburgh Pirates has just 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Yorke in the 89th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Nick Yorke will hold the platoon advantage over Cade Povich in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Triolo in the 77th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Jared Triolo has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (82% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.

Hitting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, Jared Triolo will have the upper hand today.

Jared Triolo has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s shallowest RF fences today.

Negatives with the Baltimore Orioles Game Today

Colton Cowser is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.

In today’s matchup, Colton Cowser is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.3% rate (90th percentile).

Sporting a .286 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Colton Cowser finds himself in the 10th percentile for hitting ability.

Grading out in the 12th percentile, Colton Cowser has put up a .283 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

By putting up a 5.12 K/BB rate this year, Colton Cowser has demonstrated bad plate discipline, checking in at the 5th percentile.

The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest out of every team playing today.

Colton Cowser’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined recently, falling from 48.9% on the season to 0% over the past 7 days.

Colton Cowser has compiled a .210 Expected Batting Average this year, grading out in the 6th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cam Devanney in the 5th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Cam Devanney is penciled in 9th in the batting order today.

In the league, Oriole Park at Camden Yards’s LF fences are the 3rd-deepest.

Cam Devanney will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Cam Devanney has been cold of late, putting up a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to evaluate power) in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cam Devanney in the 7th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Coby Mayo is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this matchup.

Batting from the same side that Johan Oviedo throws from, Coby Mayo will be at a disadvantage today.

Coby Mayo pulls many of his flyballs (35% — 88th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Coby Mayo has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph dropping to 79.2-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

Dylan Beavers is projected to bat 8th in the lineup today.

Dylan Beavers has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Dylan Beavers’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off lately, decreasing from 48.6% on the season to 25% in the past 14 days.

Over the last two weeks, Dylan Beavers has been exhibiting poor exit velocity numbers, with an average of only 82.8-mph on his flyballs.

The 5th-worst projected batting order of the day in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

It is expected that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Jim Wolf) in charge of the strike zone today.

Cade Povich has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 9 opposite-handed bats in this matchup.

Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher stats across the board, and Cade Povich will hold that advantage in today’s game.

With a 0.71 difference between Cade Povich’s 5.16 ERA and his 4.45 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the majors this year and figures to positively regress going forward.

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Cade Povich is projected to throw 85 pitches in today’s matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 9th-least on the slate today.

Out of all starters, Cade Povich’s fastball velocity of 91.6 mph grades out in the 19th percentile this year.

Given the 0.93 deviation between Cade Povich’s 9.66 K/9 and his 8.73 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the league this year when it comes to strikeouts and should negatively regress going forward.

Jackson Holliday has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.8-mph dropping to 84.9-mph in the last two weeks.

In the last 7 days, Jackson Holliday’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 43.1%.

Pittsburgh’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Jackson Holliday, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

Samuel Basallo has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and will be challenged by MLB’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Samuel Basallo has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87-mph dropping to 82.1-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Samuel Basallo’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased lately, going from 39% on the season to 28.6% over the last 14 days.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 14.8°, Samuel Basallo has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (4.9°) over the past two weeks.

Johan Oviedo will hold the platoon advantage against Ryan Mountcastle in today’s game.

Ryan Mountcastle has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 10.6% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the last 7 days.

When it comes to plate discipline, Ryan Mountcastle’s ability is quite bad, posting a 5.76 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 3rd percentile.

Ryan Mountcastle’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls recently (1.1° over the last 14 days) is quite a bit lower than his 9.5° seasonal mark.

Ryan Mountcastle has hit 9.3 homers per 600 plate appearances this year, ranking in the 14th percentile for power.

The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side (0) today against Cade Povich,Bryan Reynolds will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 12°, Bryan Reynolds’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls has dropped significantly in recent games (6.1° in the past 14 days).

Tommy Pham will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Tommy Pham’s launch angle this year (7°) is significantly lower than his 10.7° angle last season.

Tommy Pham’s launch angle in recent games (2.5° in the past two weeks) is quite a bit lower than his 7° seasonal figure.

Sporting a 11.400 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Tommy Pham grades out in the 18th percentile for power.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Johan Oviedo is projected to throw 85 pitches in today’s game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-most of all pitchers on the slate.

The Baltimore Orioles have 6 batters in the projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Johan Oviedo in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Andrew McCutchen today.

Andrew McCutchen’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, falling from 17.4% to 13.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alexander Canario in the 19th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Alexander Canario is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Alexander Canario in today’s matchup.

This year, Jeremiah Jackson has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 12% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.

Hitting from the same side that Johan Oviedo throws from, Jeremiah Jackson will have a tough challenge in today’s game.

Jeremiah Jackson’s launch angle recently (-1° in the last 7 days) is significantly lower than his 10.6° seasonal figure.

Despite posting a .371 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jeremiah Jackson has had positive variance on his side given the .079 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .292.

Nick Gonzales will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Nick Gonzales’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 88.3-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 84.6-mph in the last 14 days.

There has been a significant decline in Nick Gonzales’s launch angle from last year’s 12.6° to 7.8° this season.

Nick Gonzales has averaged 10.0 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 15th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When it comes to his home run ability, Nick Gonzales ranks in the 24th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Over the past 7 days, Gunnar Henderson’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.8% down to 0%.

Gunnar Henderson has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 92-mph dropping to 78.4-mph over the last 7 days.

Gunnar Henderson’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off lately, going from 47.9% on the season to 24.2% over the last two weeks.

Gunnar Henderson’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, going from 14.1% to 10.9%.

Nick Yorke is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Nick Yorke in today’s matchup.

This season, there has been a decline in Nick Yorke’s footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 28.92 ft/sec last year to 27.2 ft/sec currently.

Jared Triolo will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Over the last week, Jared Triolo’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.6% down to 0%.

Jared Triolo has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph dropping to 81.4-mph in the last week.

Over the past 7 days, Jared Triolo’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 18.7%.

Grading out in the 13th percentile, Jared Triolo sits with a .348 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year.

Jared Triolo has compiled a .218 batting average this year, checking in at the 9th percentile.

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