Padres @ Mariners Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positives for the San Diego Padres Series Game 3 Game Today

Gavin Sheets has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (73% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.

,T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.

,Hitting from the opposite that George Kirby throws from, Gavin Sheets will have the upper hand in today’s game.

,Gavin Sheets may have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.

,Gavin Sheets pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.5% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences today.

,Long-balls are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all parks.

,The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the worst among every team today.

,Freddy Fermin’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 10.8% to 15.5%.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s appraisal, George Kirby’s overall pitching skill grades out in the 90th percentile out of all SPs in the league currently.

,George Kirby has recorded 19 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 98th percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects T-Mobile Park as the worst venue in the majors for batting average.

,With 7 batters of the same handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, George Kirby ought to benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

,When assessing his overall offensive talent, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Randy Arozarena is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

,The San Diego Padres outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

,Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Randy Arozarena will hold that advantage today.

,Hitting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Cole Young will have an edge today.

,Cole Young pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.1% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest RF fences today.

,Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Cole Young will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Cole Young ranks in the 83rd percentile with a 18.1° launch angle, which is one of the highest angles in the league.

,Miguel Andujar pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.4% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

,Placing in the 85th percentile, Miguel Andujar sits with a .349 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season.

,Miguel Andujar has compiled a .471 Slugging Percentage (SLG) since the start of last season, grading out in the 86th percentile.

,Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 16th-best batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Fernando Tatis Jr. is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Fernando Tatis Jr. has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 4th-shallowest RF fences today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

,Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.

,Checking in at the 82nd percentile for power, Xander Bogaerts has averaged 26 dingers per 600 plate appearances this year.

,Josh Naylor is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

,Hitting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Josh Naylor will have an edge in today’s game.

,Josh Naylor pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.8% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Josh Naylor will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,Jackson Merrill’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.

,Batting from the opposite that George Kirby throws from, Jackson Merrill will have the upper hand in today’s game.

,The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jackson Merrill has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

,Jackson Merrill has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

,Nick Castellanos’s BABIP talent is projected in the 86th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,When it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34° (the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs), Nick Castellanos and his 20.2% rank in the 97th percentile since the start of last season.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run ability.

,Luke Raley has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (85% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.

,Luke Raley will have the handedness advantage against Lucas Giolito in today’s game.

,Luke Raley pulls many of his flyballs (34% — 76th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences today.

,When it comes to his overall offensive skill, J.P. Crawford ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,J.P. Crawford is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

,Hitting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, J.P. Crawford will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

,J.P. Crawford has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

,Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Andujar in the 89th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

,Leo Rivas will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

,Leo Rivas ranks in the 86th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (19.5% rate since the start of last season).

,By putting up a 1.69 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Leo Rivas has demonstrated favorable plate discipline, grading out in the 86th percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dominic Canzone in the 84th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

,Dominic Canzone will hold the platoon advantage against Lucas Giolito in today’s matchup.

,Ramon Laureano’s BABIP talent is projected in the 85th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,By putting up a .358 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Ramon Laureano is positioned in the 88th percentile for hitting ability.

,Dominic Canzone will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

,Lucas Giolito has been given an above-average leash since the start of last season, throwing 5.8 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starter.

,The #3 stadium in MLB for boosting strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.

,Lucas Giolito has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 6 opposite-handed batters in this matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dominic Canzone in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

,Ramon Laureano’s 13.4% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) ranks in the 86th percentile since the start of last season.

,Home field advantage generally boosts pitcher metrics across the board, and George Kirby will hold that advantage today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

,Julio Rodriguez is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.

,Julio Rodriguez will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

,Xander Bogaerts’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Xander Bogaerts has exhibited strong plate discipline this year, checking in at the 79th percentile with a 1.59 K/BB rate.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ramon Laureano in the 82nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

,When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jackson Merrill ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 10th-best hitter in MLB when estimating his batting average ability.

,Manny Machado has notched a .348 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 82nd percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,With a .358 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Fernando Tatis Jr. is positioned in the 88th percentile for offensive skills.

,Checking in at the 100th percentile, Miguel Andujar has notched a .310 batting average since the start of last season.

,Cole Young’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 39.2% to 44.4%.

Negatives with the Seattle Mariners Series Game 3 Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Sheets in the 21st percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

,The #1 park in baseball for suppressing offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.

,Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.

,The weather forecast expects the most suitable pitching weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

,Gavin Sheets will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

,When assessing his overall offensive skill, Freddy Fermin ranks in the 17th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Freddy Fermin is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks T-Mobile Park as the worst park in the league for RHB batting average.

,The San Diego Padres have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games,It is anticipated that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Chad Fairchild) in charge of the strike zone in today’s game.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Mitch Garver (the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s game) profiles as a weak pitch framer.

,T-Mobile Park has the shallowest RF fences among all parks.

,Hitting from the same side that Lucas Giolito throws from, Randy Arozarena will be at a disadvantage today.

,Randy Arozarena has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 11.6% rate last year has fallen off to 5.9% this season.

,Cole Young is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today.

,Cole Young has hit 21% of his balls in the air 100 mph or greater since the start of last season, placing in the 18th percentile.

,Randy Arozarena’s launch angle this season (6.1°) is significantly worse than his 13.4° angle last season.

,Miguel Andujar is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today.

,Hitting from the same side that George Kirby throws from, Miguel Andujar faces a tough challenge in today’s game.

,Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Miguel Andujar today.

,George Kirby will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Freddy Fermin today.

,Batting from the same side that George Kirby throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. has a tough challenge in today’s game.

,Fernando Tatis Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

,George Kirby will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Xander Bogaerts today.

,Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Xander Bogaerts today.

,Xander Bogaerts’s 8.8° launch angle (an advanced stat to measure a hitter’s ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the lowest in the game: 19th percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Naylor in the 13th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

,The #1 ballpark in MLB for suppressing batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.

,A high launch angle standard deviation tends to lead to a lower BABIP, and Josh Naylor’s 30.9° mark (13th percentile) this year indicates a weak hitting profile.

,Jackson Merrill will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

,Jackson Merrill’s launch angle this season (11.7°) is quite a bit worse than his 15.2° figure last season.

,Nick Castellanos is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

,Batting from the same side that George Kirby throws from, Nick Castellanos encounters a tough challenge in today’s game.

,When it comes to plate discipline, Luke Raley’s ability is quite bad, putting up a 3.82 K/BB rate since the start of last season while placing in in the 19th percentile.

,J.P. Crawford’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, falling from 19% to 12.5%.

,This season, there has been a decline in J.P. Crawford’s speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.7 ft/sec last year to 25.47 ft/sec currently.

,George Kirby will hold the platoon advantage over Manny Machado today.

,Manny Machado will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

,Manny Machado has struggled with his Barrel%; his 12.9% rate last season has dropped off to 6.2% this season.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Leo Rivas in the 12th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

,Leo Rivas is penciled in 9th on the lineup card today.

,Dominic Canzone is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today’s game.

,Ramon Laureano has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (70% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.

,Hitting from the same side that George Kirby throws from, Ramon Laureano will have a tough challenge in today’s game.

,Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Ramon Laureano in today’s matchup.

,The switch-hitting Leo Rivas will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side (0) today against Lucas Giolito,Playing on the road generally reduces pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Lucas Giolito in today’s game.

,Lucas Giolito’s 2231-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 22nd percentile out of all SPs.

,George Kirby’s 2233-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 23rd percentile out of all starters.

,When assessing his home run talent, Leo Rivas ranks in the 15th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Leo Rivas’s 2.3% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) is in the 17th percentile since the start of last season.

,Nick Castellanos will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

,Hitting from the same side that Lucas Giolito throws from, Julio Rodriguez faces a tough challenge today.

,Julio Rodriguez’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 91.9-mph figure last year has fallen off to 89.7-mph.

,With a .269 wOBA in the last two weeks’ worth of games, Jackson Merrill has been struggling at the plate.

,This season, there has been a decline in Julio Rodriguez’s speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.23 ft/sec last year to 28.74 ft/sec currently.

,Manny Machado’s average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 92.9-mph average last season has fallen to 90.2-mph.

,Fernando Tatis Jr.’s launch angle this year (2.1°) is significantly worse than his 9.6° figure last season.

,Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Freddy Fermin in today’s matchup.

,Xander Bogaerts’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last season to this one, going from 47.6% to 41.9%.

,With a .239 wOBA over the past two weeks, Nick Castellanos has been struggling at the plate.

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