Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Padres vs Brewers Matchup Today

American Family Field profiles as the #1 park in baseball for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Randy Vasquez’s cut-fastball utilization has jumped by 14.3% from last season to this one (13.7% to 28%) .

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Randy Vasquez in the 7th percentile as it relates to his overall pitching talent.

American Family Field has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences in MLB.

In Major League Baseball, American Family Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.

Randy Vasquez will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Sal Frelick is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.

Sal Frelick will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Randy Vasquez today.

Sal Frelick hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

Sal Frelick’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Extreme groundball hitters like Joey Ortiz tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Randy Vasquez.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Joey Ortiz will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Despite posting a .227 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Joey Ortiz has had bad variance on his side given the .073 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .300.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Jackson Chourio is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Jackson Chourio will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 80th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

As it relates to his batting average skill, Jackson Merrill is projected as the 18th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jackson Merrill is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.

Jackson Merrill will have the handedness advantage over Chad Patrick in today’s matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jackson Merrill ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Caleb Durbin hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Caleb Durbin will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (11.6) provides evidence that Caleb Durbin has suffered from bad luck this year with his 3.9 actual HR/600.

As it relates to plate discipline, Caleb Durbin’s talent is quite good, sporting a 1.46 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 87th percentile.

Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher stats in all categories, and Chad Patrick will hold that advantage in today’s game.

In his last GS, Chad Patrick was rolling and conceded 0 ER.

Chad Patrick has notched a 3.42 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that is concerned with the things a pitcher has the most control over) this year, ranking in the 76th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Manny Machado hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Over the past 7 days, Manny Machado’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.4% up to 18.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 86th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Jake Cronenworth will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chad Patrick in today’s game.

As it relates to plate discipline, Jake Cronenworth’s ability is quite strong, sporting a 1.73 K/BB rate since the start of last season while ranking in in the 86th percentile.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.273) may lead us to conclude that Jake Cronenworth has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .243 actual batting average.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 8th-best hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Fernando Tatis Jr. is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Fernando Tatis Jr.’s true offensive skill to be a .379, providing some evidence that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .024 deviation between that figure and his actual .355 wOBA.

Luis Arraez is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Chad Patrick throws from, Luis Arraez will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Luis Arraez has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 89.7-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 85.6-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Arraez as the 2nd-best batter in the league when assessing his batting average skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rhys Hoskins in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Rhys Hoskins will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Rhys Hoskins’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls of late (31.3° over the last 14 days) is considerably higher than his 20.2° seasonal mark.

Rhys Hoskins’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 37.9% to 43.9%.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, William Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

William Contreras is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.

William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Extreme flyball hitters like William Contreras tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Randy Vasquez.

Christian Yelich’s BABIP ability is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Christian Yelich is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Christian Yelich will have an edge in today’s matchup.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Christian Yelich ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Gavin Sheets is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Chad Patrick throws from, Gavin Sheets will have an advantage in today’s game.

In the last two weeks, Gavin Sheets’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.8-mph over the course of the season to 98.7-mph in recent games.

Grading out in the 79th percentile, Gavin Sheets has put up a .351 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

Brice Turang is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

Brice Turang will have the handedness advantage over Randy Vasquez today.

Brice Turang hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 84th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Isaac Collins will hold that advantage today.

Isaac Collins has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.1-mph to 89.4-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Negative Match Player Stats with Padres vs Brewers

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Randy Vasquez in the 4th percentile when estimating his strikeout talent.

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Randy Vasquez is projected to throw 85 pitches in today’s game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 8th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.

The Milwaukee Brewers (20.2 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 5th-least strikeout-heavy set of hitters of all teams on the slate.

American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.

Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Randy Vasquez (33.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 4 GB hitters in Milwaukee’s projected offense.

The #2 venue in Major League Baseball for suppressing batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.

Out of all the teams playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the San Diego Padres.

In his last game started, Randy Vasquez turned in a great performance and conceded 0 ER.

The 6.4% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers ranks them as the #30 squad in the game this year by this metric.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 4th percentile when estimating his home run talent.

Sal Frelick’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off in recent games, falling from 10.1% on the season to 7% over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Sal Frelick’s true offensive ability to be a .296, implying that he has been very fortunate this year given the .037 deviation between that figure and his actual .333 wOBA.

Sal Frelick has performed at a clip of 11.9 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 18th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

In notching a .163 Isolated Power (ISO) this year, Sal Frelick grades out in the 21st percentile.

The #3 venue in Major League Baseball for suppressing batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.

Sal Frelick has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .291 mark is inflated compared to his .257 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles American Family Field as the 6th-worst field in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.

Joey Ortiz is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this matchup.

When starting against a righty hurler this year, Joey Ortiz has been pulled from the game early 10% of the time.

The #3 venue in the majors for suppressing batting average to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.

Hitting from the same side that Randy Vasquez throws from, Joey Ortiz will be in a tough position in today’s matchup.

Joey Ortiz has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Joey Ortiz’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 87.8-mph EV last season has dropped off to 84.5-mph.

Batting from the same side that Randy Vasquez throws from, Jackson Chourio faces a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Jackson Chourio’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 89.7-mph average last season has dropped off to 87-mph.

Jackson Chourio’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, going from 16% to 10.2%.

In the past 7 days, Jackson Chourio’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 10.2%.

Posting a 5.85 K/BB rate this year, Jackson Chourio has demonstrated weak plate discipline, placing in the 8th percentile.

Among all the teams in action today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jackson Merrill in today’s game.

Jackson Merrill’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 93.2-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 84.6-mph over the last week.

Jackson Merrill has been lucky this year, posting a .371 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .340 — a .031 deviation.

There has been a significant decline in Jackson Merrill’s launch angle from last year’s 14.5° to 9.3° this season.

Jackson Merrill’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls in recent games (7.3° over the last 7 days) is significantly worse than his 13.8° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Caleb Durbin in the 8th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

Caleb Durbin is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Randy Vasquez will hold the platoon advantage against Caleb Durbin today.

Caleb Durbin’s BABIP ability is projected in the 8th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Compared to his seasonal mark of 15.7°, Caleb Durbin has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-3.5°) in the last two weeks.

Caleb Durbin has been cold in recent games, posting a 0% Barrel% (an advanced metric to study power) in the last week’s worth of games.

Out of all SPs, Chad Patrick’s fastball velocity of 86.9 mph grades out in the 2nd percentile this year.

Considering the 1.62 difference between Chad Patrick’s 2.97 ERA and his 4.59 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the majors this year and should negatively regress in the future.

The San Diego Padres (18.4 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-prone lineup of the day.

Chad Patrick has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts this year, notching an 8.06 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.80 — a 0.26 K/9 disparity.

Batting from the same side that Chad Patrick throws from, Manny Machado will have a tough matchup in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Manny Machado in today’s game.

Manny Machado’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off recently, decreasing from 49.5% on the season to 18.2% over the last 7 days.

Jake Cronenworth is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jake Cronenworth today.

Jake Cronenworth’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 89.1-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 80.5-mph over the last 7 days.

Jake Cronenworth’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, decreasing from 16.5% to 10.8%.

Jake Cronenworth’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased of late, going from 10.8% on the season to 0% over the last 7 days.

Chad Patrick will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Fernando Tatis Jr. today.

Fernando Tatis Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

In the last 7 days, Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.3% down to 0%.

There has been a significant decline in Fernando Tatis Jr.’s launch angle from last year’s 9.7° to 6.7° this season.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 6.7°, Fernando Tatis Jr. has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-7.3°) in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

When it comes to his home run ability, Luis Arraez ranks in the 0th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Luis Arraez will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 87.9-mph figure last year has dropped to 84.9-mph.

Luis Arraez’s launch angle lately (0° over the last week) is considerably worse than his 13.8° seasonal mark.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (0.3) provides evidence that Luis Arraez has had positive variance on his side this year with his 7.6 actual HR/600.

Rhys Hoskins is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Randy Vasquez throws from, Rhys Hoskins encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Typically, hitters like Rhys Hoskins who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Randy Vasquez.

Rhys Hoskins’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 90.3-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 83.3-mph over the last 7 days.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Rhys Hoskins has experienced some positive variance this year. His .352 figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .322.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rhys Hoskins in the 5th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Randy Vasquez will have the handedness advantage over William Contreras in today’s game.

William Contreras has struggled with his Barrel%; his 10% rate last season has fallen to 4.7% this season.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 8.6°, William Contreras’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls has dropped significantly lately (2.5° in the past 14 days).

From last season to this one, William Contreras’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 10.5% to 7%.

With a 9.600 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , William Contreras is ranked in the 11th percentile for power.

There has been a significant decline in Christian Yelich’s launch angle from last season’s 5.1° to 1.2° this year.

In terms of his home runs, Christian Yelich has been lucky this year. His 30.5 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 14.5.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Sheets in the 22nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Gavin Sheets pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.5% — 85th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 7th-deepest RF fences today.

Gavin Sheets will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Gavin Sheets has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 10.9% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last week.

In the last week’s worth of games, Gavin Sheets’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12.3%.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (22.3) implies that Gavin Sheets has had positive variance on his side this year with his 32.5 actual HR/600.

When estimating his home run skill, Brice Turang ranks in the 10th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Brice Turang has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 7.5% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past 7 days.

In notching a 9.600 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Brice Turang grades out in the 11th percentile for power.

Checking in at the 12th percentile, Brice Turang sits with a .138 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year.

Isaac Collins is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.

The switch-hitting Isaac Collins will bat from his bad side (0) today against Randy Vasquez,Isaac Collins pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.5% — 76th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 7th-deepest RF fences today.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 13.6°, Isaac Collins has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (6.3°) over the past 14 days.

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