Orioles @ Red Sox Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positives for the Baltimore Orioles Series Game 3 Game Today

Tyler O’Neill projects as the 16th-best home run hitter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Tyler O’Neill is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

,Fenway Park grades out as the #3 venue in MLB for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Hitting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Tyler O’Neill will have an advantage in today’s game.

,Tyler O’Neill pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Alonso in the 97th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

,Pete Alonso is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.

,The #7 field in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.

,The shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Fenway Park.

,Batting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Pete Alonso will have an advantage in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 82nd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 7th-best ballpark in baseball for LHB batting average.

,Jarren Duran will hold the platoon advantage against Kyle Bradish in today’s game.

,The Baltimore Orioles have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jarren Duran stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

,Jarren Duran has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,As it relates to his home run skill, Coby Mayo ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Coby Mayo has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (78% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today’s game.

,Coby Mayo will hold the platoon advantage against Ranger Suarez in today’s game.

,Coby Mayo pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.4% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences today.

,In the last week, Coby Mayo’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.4% up to 20%.

,Willson Contreras projects as the 18th-best hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Willson Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.

,Willson Contreras pulls many of his flyballs (35.4% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of every team on the slate today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gunnar Henderson in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

,Gunnar Henderson is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.

,In the majors, Fenway Park’s right field fences are the shallowest.

,Gunnar Henderson’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, rising from 43.3% on the season to 57.7% in the past 14 days.

,When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Wilyer Abreu will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Bradish in today’s matchup.

,The Baltimore Orioles have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Wilyer Abreu stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

,Willson Contreras will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

,In the last week, Willson Contreras’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.8% up to 33.3%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

,Masataka Yoshida is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.

,Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Bradish throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 80th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

,Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.

,Ceddanne Rafaela has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

,Caleb Durbin pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.3% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

,Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Caleb Durbin will hold that advantage today.

,Anthony Seigler is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.

,Batting from the opposite that Kyle Bradish throws from, Anthony Seigler will have the upper hand today.

,The Baltimore Orioles have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Anthony Seigler can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

,Anthony Seigler has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

,Leody Taveras has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

,Leody Taveras’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 8% to 16.9%.

,When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Tyler O’Neill ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Leody Taveras has put up a .327 BABIP this year, placing in the 82nd percentile.

,Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Bradish throws from, Tsung-Che Cheng will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

,The Baltimore Orioles have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Tsung-Che Cheng has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

,Masataka Yoshida is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Baltimore Orioles has just 1 same-handed RP.

,Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Masataka Yoshida will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,Pete Alonso has recorded a .381 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, placing in the 97th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Sam Huff will have the handedness advantage against Ranger Suarez today.

,Sam Huff’s speed has increased this season. His 23.39 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.51 ft/sec now.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Ward in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

,Taylor Ward is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Hitting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Taylor Ward will have an edge today.

,Taylor Ward has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

,Taylor Ward has made notable strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 5.8% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the past week’s worth of games.

,Despite posting a .302 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Gunnar Henderson has experienced some negative variance given the .044 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .346.

,Using Statcast metrics, Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 84th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .351.

,Tsung-Che Cheng will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

,Connor Wong will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

,Connor Wong has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 90.6-mph average to last year’s 87-mph average.

,Connor Wong’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 7% to 11.8%.

,As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Jarren Duran ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Jarren Duran will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,Ceddanne Rafaela has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 88.5-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 86-mph average.

,Ceddanne Rafaela’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, rising from 18.3% on the season to 33.3% in the past week.

,Despite posting a .292 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Tyler O’Neill has had bad variance on his side given the .055 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .347.

,Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Anthony Seigler will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Negatives with the Boston Red Sox Series Game 3 Game Today

37% of the time that Tyler O’Neill has started against a lefty hurler this year, he has been pinch hit for.

,Among all stadiums, the 2nd-highest fence height (on average) are at Fenway Park.

,Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.

,Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox.

,Tyler O’Neill will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

,Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Pete Alonso in today’s matchup.

,Pete Alonso’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off lately; his 96.5-mph seasonal average has decreased to 79.9-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

,Jarren Duran has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

,Jarren Duran’s average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 91.8-mph figure last season has lowered to 89.4-mph.

,Jarren Duran’s launch angle lately (-2.3° over the past week) is a significant dropoff from his 12.9° seasonal angle.

,Posting a .262 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Jarren Duran is ranked in the 4th percentile.

,49% of the time that Coby Mayo has started against a lefty on the mound this year, he has been pinch hit for.

,Coby Mayo will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

,In terms of plate discipline, Coby Mayo’s ability is quite bad, sporting a 4.57 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 7th percentile.

,Kyle Bradish will hold the platoon advantage against Willson Contreras in today’s matchup.

,Despite posting a .400 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Willson Contreras has experienced some positive variance given the .035 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .365.

,Ranger Suarez will hold the platoon advantage against Gunnar Henderson today.

,Gunnar Henderson will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

,Gunnar Henderson has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 7.2% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

,13% of the time that Masataka Yoshida has started against a northpaw this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

,Typically, hitters like Masataka Yoshida who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Kyle Bradish.

,Masataka Yoshida’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 88.6-mph seasonal average has decreased to 83.3-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

,Masataka Yoshida’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 91.6-mph EV last season has fallen off to 89.5-mph.

,Hitting from the same side that Kyle Bradish throws from, Ceddanne Rafaela will not have the upper hand in today’s game.

,There has been a decrease in Ceddanne Rafaela’s average exit velocity this season, from 88 mph last year to 86 mph now,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ceddanne Rafaela’s true offensive skill to be a .305, providing some evidence that he has been very fortunate this year given the .024 gap between that mark and his actual .329 wOBA.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Caleb Durbin in the 12th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

,Caleb Durbin is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.

,Batting from the same side that Kyle Bradish throws from, Caleb Durbin has a tough challenge today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Seigler in the 19th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

,29% of the time that Anthony Seigler has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been pinch hit for.

,Leody Taveras is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game.

,Using Statcast metrics, Leody Taveras ranks in the 19th percentile for offensive skills per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .250.

,Tyler O’Neill has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 16.5% rate last year has dropped off to 9.5% this season.

,When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Tsung-Che Cheng ranks in the 8th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Tsung-Che Cheng is projected to bat 9th in the batting order today.

,When starting against a right-handed starter this year, Tsung-Che Cheng has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 16% of the time.

,Tsung-Che Cheng and his 8° launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls rank in 22nd percentile, among the lowest in the majors since the start of last season.

,By putting up a .230 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Wilyer Abreu is ranked in the 24th percentile.

,In the last week’s worth of games, Pete Alonso’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 17.7%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sam Huff in the 0th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

,Sam Huff is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Since the start of last season, Sam Huff has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 32% of his appearances when starting against left-handed pitcher.

,Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Taylor Ward in today’s matchup.

,Checking in at the 14th percentile for power, Taylor Ward has paced 8.7 homers per 600 plate appearances this year.

,Gunnar Henderson’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 89.5-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 78.9-mph in the last 7 days.

,Connor Wong is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game.

,This year, Connor Wong has been pinch hit for in 14% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

,Kyle Bradish will have the handedness advantage against Connor Wong today.

,Connor Wong has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.9-mph dropping to 82.7-mph in the last 14 days.

,Over the last 14 days, Caleb Durbin’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal average of 89.2 mph to 85.6 mph.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sam Huff in the 1st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

,Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Sam Huff in today’s matchup.

,Coby Mayo has compiled a .208 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, checking in at the 7th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,When it comes to his home run ability, Caleb Durbin ranks in the 25th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Seigler in the 20th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

,When it comes to his home runs, Anthony Seigler has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season. His 6.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 2.0.

,By putting up a 4.25 K/BB rate this year, Ceddanne Rafaela has displayed poor plate discipline, placing in the 10th percentile.

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