Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Orioles vs Mariners Series Game 3 Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

HRs are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in the majors.

Colton Cowser will have the handedness advantage against Bryan Woo in today’s game… and moreover, Woo has a large platoon split.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Colton Cowser stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.

Among every team in action today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

The #5 venue in MLB for boosting home runs to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects T-Mobile Park as the 5th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB home runs.

Heston Kjerstad’s BABIP ability is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Heston Kjerstad will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bryan Woo in today’s matchup… and moreover, Woo has a large platoon split.

Heston Kjerstad has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.

Heston Kjerstad has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Despite posting a .249 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Heston Kjerstad has experienced some negative variance given the .058 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .307.

Bryan Woo projects as the 20th-best starter in the league right now, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Generating 19.2 outs per game per started this year on average, Bryan Woo falls in the 99th percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.

T-Mobile Park projects as the #29 park in the league for batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-most strikeout-prone lineup today is the Baltimore Orioles with a 24% underlying K%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles T-Mobile Park as the 2nd-best field in the majors for strikeouts.

Cole Young will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zach Eflin in today’s matchup.

Cole Young will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Jackson Holliday ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jackson Holliday has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (61% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.

Jackson Holliday will have the handedness advantage against Bryan Woo in today’s game… and moreover, Woo has a large platoon split.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jackson Holliday has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Jackson Holliday has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

Benjamin Williamson has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Benjamin Williamson will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

When it comes to his home runs, Benjamin Williamson has been unlucky this year. His 3.9 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 11.3.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Benjamin Williamson in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Ramon Urias has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (76% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.

Ramon Urias’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, increasing from 45.7% on the season to 60% in the past two weeks.

Ramon Urias’s launch angle recently (20.3° over the past week) is a considerable increase over his 11.1° seasonal angle.

Ramon Urias has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs this year; his 7.9 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is significantly deflated relative to his 14.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O’Hearn in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Ryan O’Hearn is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

Because of Bryan Woo’s large platoon split, Ryan O’Hearn will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today’s game.

Ryan O’Hearn is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O’Hearn in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Ryan O’Hearn has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, J.P. Crawford ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

J.P. Crawford is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

Hitting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, J.P. Crawford will have an advantage today.

J.P. Crawford will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which should bolster all of his stats.

Dylan Carlson’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 39.1% to 53.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Arozarena in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Randy Arozarena is penciled in 5th in the batting order today.

Randy Arozarena pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.6% — 77th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Randy Arozarena will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Randy Arozarena has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 11.6% seasonal rate to 18.5% over the last 14 days.

As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Leody Taveras will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against Zach Eflin today.

Leody Taveras has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Leody Taveras will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Over the past two weeks, Leody Taveras’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.7-mph over the course of the season to 96.9-mph lately.

Leody Taveras’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, increasing from 44.4% on the season to 56.3% in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Leody Taveras’s true offensive talent to be a .301, suggesting that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .059 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .242 wOBA.

Rowdy Tellez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zach Eflin today.

Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Rowdy Tellez will hold that advantage today.

The Barrel% of Rowdy Tellez has significantly improved, with an increase from 8.1% last year to 15.4% this year.

Rowdy Tellez has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average this year; his .207 BA is a fair amount lower than his .256 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his home run ability, Rowdy Tellez ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

As it relates to his home run ability, Jorge Polanco ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jorge Polanco is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

Jorge Polanco pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.2% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences today.

Extreme groundball hitters like Jorge Polanco are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Zach Eflin.

Jorge Polanco will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Polanco in the 78th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

With 6 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Zach Eflin will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

Given that groundball hitters have a notable advantage over flyball pitchers, Zach Eflin and his 44.4% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough spot in today’s matchup being matched up with 2 opposing GB batters.

Playing on the road generally diminishes pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Zach Eflin in today’s game.

Zach Eflin’s fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this season (90.8 mph) below where it was last season (91.8 mph).

Tallying 92.2 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Zach Eflin ranks in the 77th percentile.

Given the 1.56 disparity between Zach Eflin’s 5.36 K/9 and his 6.91 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in baseball this year in terms of strikeouts and ought to see positive regression in the future.

Cal Raleigh projects as the 5th-best home run hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Cal Raleigh is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.

Cal Raleigh has big-time power (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (26.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Zach Eflin struggles to strike batters out (25th percentile K%) — great news for Raleigh.

Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.3% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Extreme flyball bats like Cal Raleigh usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Zach Eflin.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Cal Raleigh ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Cal Raleigh will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

When it comes to his BABIP talent, Julio Rodriguez is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Julio Rodriguez is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Julio Rodriguez will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Julio Rodriguez’s true offensive ability to be a .364, indicating that he has been unlucky this year given the .047 gap between that figure and his actual .317 wOBA.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Julio Rodriguez ranks as the 18th-best hitter in the majors.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

Adley Rutschman has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.6-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 90.4-mph EV.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 19th-best hitter in MLB.

Gunnar Henderson is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

Given Bryan Woo’s large platoon split, Gunnar Henderson will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today’s game.

Gunnar Henderson is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.

Negative Match Player Stats with Orioles vs Mariners Series Game 3

Colton Cowser has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (80% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.

The #1 park in the majors for suppressing offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.

Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which generally leads to less offense.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-most favorable pitching conditions on the schedule today.

Colton Cowser will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

T-Mobile Park projects as the #30 park in the league for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Coby Mayo in the 24th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Coby Mayo is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today.

Since the start of last season, Coby Mayo has been pulled from the game early in 19% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound.

Because of Bryan Woo’s large platoon split, Coby Mayo will be at a tremendous disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in this game.

The #1 ballpark in Major League Baseball for suppressing batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.

Heston Kjerstad is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Heston Kjerstad has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 18% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.

Heston Kjerstad will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

It may be best to expect better results for the Baltimore Orioles offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF fences among all major league stadiums.

The Baltimore Orioles have 7 bats in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bryan Woo in today’s game, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.

Bryan Woo is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #8 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.

Among all starting pitchers, Bryan Woo’s fastball spin rate of 2222 rpm grades out in the 24th percentile this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cole Young in the 11th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

Cole Young is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

Jackson Holliday will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Jackson Holliday has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.3-mph dropping to 87.9-mph over the last 14 days.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 7.8°, Jackson Holliday has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (2°) in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Benjamin Williamson in the 6th percentile when estimating his home run skill.

Benjamin Williamson is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this game.

Zach Eflin will have the handedness advantage against Benjamin Williamson in today’s matchup.

Bryan Woo will have the handedness advantage over Ramon Urias in today’s game… and it’s an even larger mismatch considering Woo’s large platoon split.

Ramon Urias will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Ramon Urias has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 7.7% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past 7 days.

Ryan O’Hearn has been pinch hit for 14% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.

Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ryan O’Hearn in today’s matchup.

Ryan O’Hearn has been lucky this year, notching a .413 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .342 — a .071 discrepancy.

J.P. Crawford’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 86.6-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 78.8-mph in the past 14 days.

J.P. Crawford has been lucky this year, posting a .353 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .326 — a .027 gap.

Dylan Carlson is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Dylan Carlson has been pinch hit for 12% of the time.

As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the plate, Dylan Carlson will have a tough time against Bryan Woo and his large platoon split in this game.

Batting from the same side that Zach Eflin throws from, Randy Arozarena will have a disadvantage today.

Randy Arozarena has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph dropping to 87.5-mph in the past 7 days.

Leody Taveras is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

In the last week’s worth of games, Leody Taveras’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7% down to 0%.

Leody Taveras’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last season to this one, falling from 14.1% to 7.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rowdy Tellez in the 1st percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Rowdy Tellez is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.

Rowdy Tellez has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 15.4% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the last 14 days.

Rowdy Tellez’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls recently (3.7° in the past two weeks) is quite a bit worse than his 11.7° seasonal figure.

Jorge Polanco has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 12.4% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the last 14 days.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Jorge Polanco’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal figure of 94.2 mph to 86 mph.

Jorge Polanco’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls of late (4.1° over the last 14 days) is considerably worse than his 10.3° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Zach Eflin in the 76th percentile when estimating his overall pitching talent.

The Seattle Mariners have been the 10th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season,As it relates to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Zach Eflin in the 24th percentile among all SPs in MLB.

In his last game started, Zach Eflin wasn’t on when it came to striking hitters out and was only able to post 2 Ks.

The switch-hitting Cal Raleigh will be less advantaged while batting from his bad side (0) today against Zach Eflin,In terms of his home runs, Cal Raleigh has experienced some positive variance this year. His 53.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 40.0.

Despite posting a .416 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Cal Raleigh has been lucky given the .066 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .350.

Batting from the same side that Zach Eflin throws from, Julio Rodriguez faces a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Julio Rodriguez has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8.4% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past 7 days.

Julio Rodriguez’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased of late; his 95-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 90.1-mph over the past 7 days.

The switch-hitting Adley Rutschman will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side (0) today against Bryan Woo… and it’s an over-sized mismatch considering Woo’s large platoon split.

Adley Rutschman will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Over the past week, Adley Rutschman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.7% down to 0%.

Gunnar Henderson will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

In the last 7 days, Gunnar Henderson’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal figure of 92.1 mph to 89.2 mph.

Gunnar Henderson’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 94.7-mph EV last year has dropped off to 92.1-mph.

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