Nationals vs Astros match player stats | 2025 Series Game 3 Wednesday, July 30th

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Nationals vs Astros match player stats | 2025 Series Game 3 Wednesday, July 30th

WSH @ HOU

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Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Washington Nationals at Houston Astros
Series Game 3
Todays Game is on Wednesday, July 30th
30/07/25 14:10:00 PM EST First Pitch

Positive Match Player Stats for Nationals vs Astros Series Game 3 Matchup Today

As it relates to his BABIP talent, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

James Wood is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.

James Wood will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Gusto in today’s matchup.

James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

This season, James Wood has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 99.6 mph compared to last year’s 96.6 mph mark.

In the last 7 days, Jacob Young’s 85.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.8%.

In terms of his batting average, Jacob Young has suffered from bad luck this year. His .243 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .269.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Young in the 86th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

By putting up a 1.74 K/BB rate this year, Jacob Young has displayed strong plate discipline, placing in the 78th percentile.

The Washington Nationals have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Wood, Riley Adams, Brady House).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Minute Maid Park as the 3rd-best stadium in Major League Baseball for strikeouts.

Ryan Gusto will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to boost all of his metrics across the board.

It may be smart to expect worse results for the Washington Nationals offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 10th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.

Minute Maid Park ranks as the #22 venue in baseball for batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The maximum exit velocity of any player on the Washington Nationals has been 117.9 mph this year, putting them as the #4 team in baseball by this metric.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brady House in the 95th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Minute Maid Park has the shallowest fences in Major League Baseball — generally good for homers.

Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Gusto throws from, Daylen Lile will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Daylen Lile’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, increasing from 53.4% on the season to 92.9% in the last 7 days.

Daylen Lile has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .236 figure is quite a bit lower than his .300 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daylen Lile in the 79th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cam Smith as the 8th-best batter in Major League Baseball when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Cam Smith has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.

Cam Smith will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against MacKenzie Gore in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Cam Smith will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Cam Smith’s launch angle lately (39.6° in the past week’s worth of games) is a considerable increase over his 7.5° seasonal figure.

As it relates to his home run skill, Christian Walker ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Christian Walker is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.

Hitting from the opposite that MacKenzie Gore throws from, Christian Walker will have an advantage today.

Christian Walker pulls many of his flyballs (33.3% — 77th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Christian Walker will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Christian Walker’s true offensive skill to be a .326, implying that he has been unlucky this year given the .029 disparity between that mark and his actual .297 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

Jose Altuve is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that MacKenzie Gore throws from, Jose Altuve will have the upper hand today.

Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Bell in the 80th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Josh Bell is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.

As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Josh Bell will get to bat from his good side against Ryan Gusto in today’s matchup.

Josh Bell has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Josh Bell has seen a big gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.7-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 89.9-mph figure.

Mauricio Dubon will have the handedness advantage over MacKenzie Gore in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Mauricio Dubon will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Compared to last year, Mauricio Dubon has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 12.1% to 20.9% this season.

Mauricio Dubon has shown good plate discipline this year, ranking in the 79th percentile with a 1.72 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Nathaniel Lowe’s BABIP skill is projected in the 78th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Nathaniel Lowe is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Gusto throws from, Nathaniel Lowe will have an advantage in today’s game.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

Nathaniel Lowe’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (12.5°) is quite a bit better than his 8.7° angle last year.

Zack Short will hold the platoon advantage over MacKenzie Gore in today’s matchup.

Zack Short will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

In the past 14 days, Zack Short has posted a 24.5° launch angle, lifting the ball well and indicating strong home run potential.

Chas McCormick is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

Batting from the opposite that MacKenzie Gore throws from, Chas McCormick will have the upper hand today.

Chas McCormick will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Chas McCormick has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 102.1-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal EV of 96.4-mph.

Chas McCormick’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (23.6°) is a considerable increase over his 15.6° mark last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects MacKenzie Gore in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall pitching talent level.

MacKenzie Gore has averaged 97 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, grading out in the 98th percentile.

The 4th-weakest projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Houston Astros.

The Houston Astros have been the 6th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season,As it relates to his strikeout ability, MacKenzie Gore projects as the 18th-best pitcher in MLB right now, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The Houston Astros have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Cam Smith, Zack Short, Brice Matthews).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 79th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

CJ Abrams is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Ryan Gusto throws from, CJ Abrams will have the upper hand today.

CJ Abrams has seen a big increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.9-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 89.3-mph EV.

Compared to last year, CJ Abrams has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 14.6% to 18.5% this season.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Cooper Hummel will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Cooper Hummel has been hot recently, posting a a 23.8% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) over the past week.

Cooper Hummel has displayed some good exit velocity indicators lately, averaging 99.5-mph on his flyballs in the last week.

Cooper Hummel has been zeroed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs in recent games, hitting balls between 23° and 34° 33.3% of the time in the last week.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.312) may lead us to conclude that Cooper Hummel has had some very poor luck this year with his .254 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Yainer Diaz is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that MacKenzie Gore throws from, Yainer Diaz will have an edge today.

Yainer Diaz will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Yainer Diaz’s true offensive ability to be a .329, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .039 difference between that mark and his actual .290 wOBA.

Negative Match Player Stats with Nationals vs Astros Series Game 3

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 5th-worst park in the league for run-scoring.

Among all major league stadiums, the 3rd-tallest average fence height are at Minute Maid Park.

Minute Maid Park’s elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which often leads to lower offensive output.

The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.

Playing on the road typically lessens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for James Wood in today’s matchup.

Minute Maid Park grades out as the #22 field in the majors for lefty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

James Wood has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 17.9% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past 7 days.

As it relates to his home run skill, Jacob Young ranks in the 1st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jacob Young is projected to bat 9th in the lineup today.

11% of the time that Jacob Young has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

Minute Maid Park ranks as the #22 field in the majors for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Gusto to throw 83 pitches in this matchup (6th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

Yainer Diaz, the Astros’s expected catcher today, grades out as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The Washington Nationals have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Gusto in this matchup.

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Ryan Gusto has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 53.6% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.

Ryan Gusto has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, posting a 9.23 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.13 — a 1.10 K/9 discrepancy.

Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field fences in the majors.

Brady House is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Batting from the same side that Ryan Gusto throws from, Brady House meets a tough challenge today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daylen Lile in the 12th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Daylen Lile is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

Daylen Lile will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Cam Smith has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 9th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Cam Smith has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 7.4% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the last week.

In the past 7 days, Christian Walker’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.5% down to 0%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 15th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Over the last 14 days, Jose Altuve’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.1% down to 0%.

Jose Altuve’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off recently; his 90-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 77-mph in the past week.

Josh Bell will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Sporting a .241 BABIP this year, Josh Bell grades out in the 4th percentile.

When assessing his home run skill, Mauricio Dubon ranks in the 6th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Mauricio Dubon is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.

Mauricio Dubon has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-deepest RF fences today.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Nathaniel Lowe in today’s game.

Over the past week, Nathaniel Lowe’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal average of 92.8 mph to 74.1 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zack Short in the 2nd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Zack Short is projected to hit 9th in the batting order today.

Today, Chas McCormick is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.4% rate (81st percentile).

Chas McCormick has put up a .261 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, placing in the 5th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Adams in the 9th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Riley Adams is penciled in 8th in the batting order in today’s game.

This year, Riley Adams has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 13% of his appearances when starting against righty hurler.

Riley Adams, the Nationals’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, profiles as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

MacKenzie Gore will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

MacKenzie Gore’s 94.7-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.2-mph decrease from last season’s 95.9-mph mark.

MacKenzie Gore has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts this year, posting an 11.01 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 10.70 — a 0.31 K/9 discrepancy.

Today, CJ Abrams is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 33.9% rate (81st percentile).

CJ Abrams will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Cooper Hummel is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

Cooper Hummel hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 82nd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Yainer Diaz hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 9th-deepest CF fences today.

Yainer Diaz has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 7.8% seasonal rate has fallen to 2.4% in the past two weeks.

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