Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Mets vs D-Backs Series Game 3 Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Kodai Senga in the 91st percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.

Ryan Blakney grades out as a Pitchers Umpire and is likely to be behind the plate in this game.

Kodai Senga was rolling in his previous outing and accumulated 8 strikeouts.

Kodai Senga’s fastball velocity over his last 3 GS (95.3 mph) has been quite a bit higher than than his seasonal rate (94.2 mph).

Kodai Senga’s 2382-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 77th percentile out of all SPs.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s evaluation, Kodai Senga’s overall pitching talent is in the 83rd percentile out of all SPs in Major League Baseball currently.

It may be best to expect worse numbers for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 7th-luckiest offense in the game this year.

In MLB, Chase Field’s centerfield fences are the 3rd-deepest.

Chase Field has the 10th-tallest fences among all major league stadiums.

Playing on the road typically lessens pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Kodai Senga today.

The New York Mets have been the 7th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season,Merrill Kelly is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #29 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this matchup.

Merrill Kelly will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which should improve all of his stats in all categories.

Merrill Kelly has experienced some negative variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, compiling a 6.45 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.91 — a 1.46 K/9 disparity.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 14th-best batter in the majors.

Ketel Marte is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in the league for lefty batting average.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Ketel Marte will hold that advantage in today’s game.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Pavin Smith ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Pavin Smith is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

Pavin Smith will hold the platoon advantage against Kodai Senga in today’s matchup.

The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Pavin Smith has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run ability.

Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.

The #2 stadium in the league for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Eugenio Suarez ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Eugenio Suarez will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Eugenio Suarez’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 93.4-mph now compared to just 89-mph then.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Francisco Lindor is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.

Grading out in the 84th percentile, Francisco Lindor sits with a .369 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

Josh Naylor’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Josh Naylor is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.

Hitting from the opposite that Kodai Senga throws from, Josh Naylor will have an edge in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Naylor in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Josh Naylor will probably have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.

Juan Soto projects as the 4th-best batter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Juan Soto is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

Juan Soto will hold the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly today.

In the last 7 days, Juan Soto’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.7% up to 30%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Brandon Nimmo is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.

Brandon Nimmo will hold the platoon advantage over Merrill Kelly today.

Brandon Nimmo has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.2-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 93.2-mph mark.

Pete Alonso projects as the 13th-best batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Pete Alonso is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.

Pete Alonso has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, upping his 13.2% rate last season to 19.1% this year.

Pete Alonso has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last season’s 89.7-mph figure.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has made big gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 8.3% seasonal rate to 15% in the past 7 days.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 15.1% to 22.9%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Over the past 7 days, Tyrone Taylor’s 71.4% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.2%.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (15.8) implies that Tyrone Taylor has been unlucky since the start of last season with his 10.8 actual HR/600.

Tyrone Taylor has put up a .321 BABIP since the start of last season, ranking in the 85th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

Extreme groundball bats like Gabriel Moreno tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Kodai Senga.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Gabriel Moreno will hold that advantage today.

Gabriel Moreno has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 100.1-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 92.7-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mark Vientos in the 90th percentile when estimating his home run skill.

Mark Vientos has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 98.1-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal EV of 91.4-mph.

Posting a .342 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Mark Vientos finds himself in the 83rd percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Mark Vientos ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Alek Thomas will have the handedness advantage against Kodai Senga today.

Alek Thomas is likely to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP.

Hitters such as Alek Thomas with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Kodai Senga who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

Alek Thomas will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Corbin Carroll is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Kodai Senga throws from, Corbin Carroll will have the upper hand today.

The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Corbin Carroll can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.

Negative Match Player Stats with Mets vs D-Backs Series Game 3

Compared to the average hurler, Kodai Senga has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, recording an -9.5 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.

The #3 venue in the game for suppressing strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest elevation in the majors. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.

The Chase Field roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 11° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.

Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Kodai Senga (36.5% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in Arizona’s projected offense.

The #3 stadium in the majors for boosting batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

The New York Mets infield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst among all the teams playing today.

The best projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the New York Mets.

Merrill Kelly’s fastball velocity has fallen 1 mph this year (91 mph) below where it was last year (92 mph).

Merrill Kelly has gone to his cutter 9% less often this season (16.2%) than he did last season (25.2%).

Merrill Kelly didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking hitters out in his previous game started and compiled 1 Ks.

The switch-hitting Ketel Marte will be at a disadvantage batting from his weak side (0) today against Kodai Senga,Ketel Marte pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.6% — 86th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

Ketel Marte has struggled with his Barrel%; his 12.4% rate last season has fallen off to 3.6% this season.

Ketel Marte has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 94-mph dropping to 92-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

Ketel Marte’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined recently, going from 17.9% on the season to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 5th-worst venue in the majors for LHB home runs.

Pavin Smith has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 18% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the last 7 days.

In the last week, Pavin Smith’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 18%.

Pavin Smith has been lucky this year, putting up a .428 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .327 — a .101 deviation.

Pavin Smith has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph dropping to 84.8-mph in the past week.

Batting from the same side that Kodai Senga throws from, Eugenio Suarez encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Extreme flyball batters like Eugenio Suarez tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Kodai Senga.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (27.6) provides evidence that Eugenio Suarez has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season with his 30.7 actual HR/600.

Eugenio Suarez has posted a .220 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 19th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Ranking in the 17th percentile, Eugenio Suarez has notched a .194 batting average this year.

Chase Field ranks as the #26 stadium in baseball for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The switch-hitting Francisco Lindor will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side (0) today against Merrill Kelly,Francisco Lindor pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense grades out as the 4th-strongest out of all the teams in action today.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Francisco Lindor in today’s matchup.

Francisco Lindor’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off lately; his 91.7-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 85.9-mph over the last two weeks.

Josh Naylor’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 90.1-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 80.9-mph in the last 7 days.

Josh Naylor’s launch angle this year (7.6°) is quite a bit worse than his 10.8° angle last year.

Josh Naylor has been lucky this year, putting up a .370 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .331 — a .039 disparity.

In terms of his home runs, Josh Naylor has been lucky since the start of last season. His 26.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 21.8.

Playing on the road typically lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Juan Soto in today’s matchup.

Juan Soto’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, decreasing from 14.7% to 8%.

Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Brandon Nimmo in today’s matchup.

Brandon Nimmo’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last season to this one, falling from 43.3% to 37.7%.

Checking in at the 15th percentile, Brandon Nimmo has put up a .263 BABIP since the start of last season.

Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Pete Alonso will not have the upper hand today.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Pete Alonso today.

Despite posting a .477 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Pete Alonso has been very fortunate given the .107 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .370.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

Batting from the same side that Kodai Senga throws from, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. faces a tough challenge today.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.2-mph dropping to 85.1-mph over the last 14 days.

By putting up a .274 BABIP since the start of last season, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. finds himself in the 24th percentile.

Tyrone Taylor is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Tyrone Taylor faces a tough challenge in today’s game.

Tyrone Taylor hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.

Tyrone Taylor will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Gabriel Moreno is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Kodai Senga will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Gabriel Moreno in today’s game.

Gabriel Moreno hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.1% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Gabriel Moreno has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 6.6% rate last season has decreased to 1.5% this season.

When estimating his home run ability, Gabriel Moreno ranks in the 22nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Mark Vientos has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (69% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game.

Merrill Kelly will hold the platoon advantage over Mark Vientos in today’s matchup.

Mark Vientos hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Mark Vientos in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alek Thomas in the 21st percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Alek Thomas is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today’s game.

In the last week, Alek Thomas’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9% down to 0%.

Alek Thomas’s launch angle of late (-8° over the last 14 days) is significantly worse than his 0.3° seasonal figure.

Despite posting a .397 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Corbin Carroll has experienced some positive variance given the .045 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .352.

Checking in at the 18th percentile, Corbin Carroll has put up a .265 BABIP since the start of last season.

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