Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Marlins vs D-Backs Matchup Today

The #2 field in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in the majors, which tends to lead to more offense.

Over the past 7 days, Eric Wagaman’s 68.8% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.4%.

Eric Wagaman has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 10.3 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit lower than his 15.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Tim Tawa will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which should boost all of his stats.

As it relates to his batting average, Tim Tawa has suffered from bad luck this year. His .214 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .246.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.309) suggests that Tim Tawa has been unlucky this year with his .289 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 96th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Connor Norby has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 11.1 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is deflated compared to his 18.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

In notching a .331 BABIP this year, Connor Norby is positioned in the 82nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Connor Norby’s true offensive talent to be a .313, implying that he has been unlucky this year given the .023 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .290 wOBA.

Agustin Ramirez is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Agustin Ramirez has made big improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 9.3% seasonal rate to 14.7% over the past two weeks.

In the past 7 days, Agustin Ramirez’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.1-mph over the course of the season to 106.1-mph recently.

Grading out in the 85th percentile for power, Agustin Ramirez has averaged 29.4 HRs per 600 plate appearances this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Eury Perez in the 88th percentile when it comes to his strikeout ability.

Eury Perez’s 97.5-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 99th percentile among all starting pitchers.

Eury Perez’s 2652-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 100th percentile among all SPs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Eury Perez in the 80th percentile when assessing his overall pitching talent.

The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected lineup today (.314 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably worse than their .336 wOBA this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s estimation, Merrill Kelly’s overall pitching ability is in the 85th percentile among all starters in MLB right now.

Merrill Kelly has averaged 93.7 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, placing in the 87th percentile.

The 3rd-weakest projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill is that of the Miami Marlins.

When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Merrill Kelly in the 84th percentile among all starters in the majors.

The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dane Myers, Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers).

With 6 bats who share his handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Merrill Kelly ought to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

Ketel Marte projects as the 11th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ketel Marte is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.

Chase Field ranks as the #2 venue in MLB for left-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Ketel Marte will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Ketel Marte has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 16% seasonal rate to 29.2% in the last 7 days.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Pavin Smith ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Pavin Smith is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.

Pavin Smith will have the handedness advantage over Eury Perez in today’s matchup.

Pavin Smith will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

In the past week’s worth of games, Pavin Smith’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.2% up to 25%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Naylor in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Josh Naylor is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.

Batting from the opposite that Eury Perez throws from, Josh Naylor will have the upper hand today.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Josh Naylor ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Josh Naylor will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 77th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is penciled in 5th in the batting order today.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls lately (26.4° in the past two weeks) is quite a bit better than his 14.2° seasonal figure.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ranks in the 75th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (17.6% rate this year).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 90th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Jesus Sanchez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Jesus Sanchez will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Jesus Sanchez has made notable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 12.2% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the last 14 days.

In the last 14 days, Jesus Sanchez’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96.3-mph over the course of the season to 102.5-mph of late.

Geraldo Perdomo is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.

Geraldo Perdomo will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which should boost all of his stats.

Geraldo Perdomo has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 90.5-mph average to last season’s 88.1-mph figure.

Geraldo Perdomo’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 13% to 20.6%.

Geraldo Perdomo has posted a .344 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, ranking in the 80th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Otto Lopez is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.

Otto Lopez’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (11.9°) is considerably better than his 7.9° figure last season.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Otto Lopez has suffered from bad luck this year. His .303 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .332.

Otto Lopez has exhibited strong plate discipline this year, ranking in the 87th percentile with a 1.51 K/BB rate.

Otto Lopez’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Xavier Edwards is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.

As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Xavier Edwards will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against Merrill Kelly today.

In the last two weeks, Xavier Edwards’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 85.2-mph over the course of the season to 87.6-mph lately.

Xavier Edwards’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, rising from 16.9% on the season to 33.3% in the last 7 days.

With a 1.37 K/BB rate this year, Xavier Edwards has displayed impressive plate discipline, placing in the 91st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xavier Edwards in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Nick Fortes has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 86.7-mph average to last year’s 84.1-mph EV.

When assessing his home run talent, Kyle Stowers ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Kyle Stowers is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.

Batting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Kyle Stowers will have an advantage in today’s game.

Kyle Stowers has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 11% rate last year to 17.7% this year.

Kyle Stowers has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.4-mph average to last year’s 94.4-mph mark.

Alek Thomas will hold the platoon advantage over Eury Perez in today’s game.

Extreme flyball bats like Alek Thomas generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Eury Perez.

Alek Thomas will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Alek Thomas has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 8.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is considerably lower than his 14.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dane Myers as the 12th-best batter in MLB when assessing his BABIP talent.

Dane Myers has made big improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 9.3% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the last 7 days.

Dane Myers has put up a .350 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 79th percentile.

Negative Match Player Stats with Marlins vs D-Backs

Eric Wagaman is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

The league’s 10th-highest fences can be found at Chase Field.

Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather report calls for the driest conditions of all games on the slate today at 22%.

Merrill Kelly will hold the platoon advantage over Eric Wagaman today.

Eric Wagaman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 5th-worst park in MLB for righty home runs.

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 4th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Tim Tawa is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this game.

The 3rd-deepest CF dimensions in the majors are found in Chase Field.

Hitting from the same side that Eury Perez throws from, Tim Tawa meets a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Tim Tawa has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 10.3% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last 14 days.

Connor Norby is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game.

Hitting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Connor Norby will not have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Merrill Kelly will hold the platoon advantage against Agustin Ramirez in today’s matchup.

Agustin Ramirez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 78th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Agustin Ramirez in today’s game.

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Eury Perez is projected to throw 80 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 6th-least of the day.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 4th-worst ballpark in the majors for strikeouts.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Eury Perez in this game.

Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Eury Perez (41.3% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 FB hitters in Arizona’s projected offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 3rd-best park in the majors for batting average.

Eury Perez will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Merrill Kelly’s 91.1-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 13th percentile among all starting pitchers.

Merrill Kelly has been one of the luckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball on balls in play this year with a .254 BABIP and ought to see that luck normalize going forward.

In his previous outing, Merrill Kelly struggled when it came to striking batters out and only managed to post 1 Ks.

The switch-hitting Ketel Marte will be at a disadvantage batting from his weak side (0) today against Eury Perez,Ketel Marte pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.9% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Ketel Marte’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 96.8-mph EV last season has lowered to 94.4-mph.

The #5 park in MLB for suppressing home runs to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

Ketel Marte has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .313 mark is significantly inflated relative to his .272 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Pavin Smith has been pulled from the game early 32% of the time.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.223) implies that Pavin Smith has had positive variance on his side this year with his .268 actual batting average.

Josh Naylor pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.4% — 77th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

Josh Naylor has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 6% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past 7 days.

Josh Naylor’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 88.2-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 74.8-mph in the last 7 days.

In the last week, Josh Naylor’s 25% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 48.2%.

Hitting from the same side that Eury Perez throws from, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will be in a tough position today.

Over the past 7 days, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal figure of 92 mph to 86.4 mph.

By putting up a .257 BABIP this year, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. finds himself in the 15th percentile.

Typically, bats like Jesus Sanchez who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Merrill Kelly.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jesus Sanchez in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 13th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Geraldo Perdomo’s launch angle of late (8.5° in the last two weeks’ worth of games) is significantly worse than his 14.6° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 15th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

Geraldo Perdomo has been lucky this year, posting a .332 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .302 — a .030 disparity.

As it relates to his home run ability, Otto Lopez ranks in the 17th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Otto Lopez encounters a tough challenge in today’s game.

Otto Lopez hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.

Extreme groundball hitters like Otto Lopez usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Merrill Kelly.

When it comes to his home run talent, Xavier Edwards ranks in the 1st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Xavier Edwards today.

Xavier Edwards’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (6.9°) is quite a bit worse than his 10.8° mark last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Fortes in the 1st percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Nick Fortes is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card today.

This year, Nick Fortes has been pulled from the game early in 10% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Fortes in the 10th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Kyle Stowers in today’s matchup.

Kyle Stowers’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off in recent games, falling from 44.8% on the season to 18.2% in the last week’s worth of games.

Alek Thomas is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this game.

This year, Alek Thomas has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 15% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.

In the past two weeks, Alek Thomas’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8% down to 0%.

Dane Myers is penciled in 8th in the lineup today.

Merrill Kelly will have the handedness advantage against Dane Myers in today’s game.

Dane Myers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.

Extreme flyball hitters like Dane Myers are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Merrill Kelly.

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