Todays 08/18/2024 Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Mariners at Pirates Matchup Prediction for Today

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on August 18, 2024, both teams find themselves in the lower rungs of the standings, though the Mariners have a slight edge with a record of 63-61 compared to the Pirates’ 58-64. The Pirates are projected to start Jake Woodford, who has struggled this season with a 0-4 record and a poor ERA of 5.87. This matchup marks the third game in the series, and given that Woodford is facing a Mariners offense that has the 1st most strikeouts in MLB, he might find this an opportune moment to capitalize on their weaknesses., In contrast, the Mariners will send George Kirby to the mound, who has been one of the standout pitchers this year, boasting a 3.42 ERA and a solid Win/Loss record of 8-9. Kirby’s advanced stats place him as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB, making him a significant challenge for the Pirates’ struggling offense, which ranks 27th in the league., Despite the Mariners’ strong pitching lineup, they have faced their own offensive challenges, ranking 28th in overall offensive performance and dead last in team batting average. However, their power numbers are more favorable, sitting at 14th in home runs., The game total is set at 8.0 runs, an average line indicating that both offenses have struggled to consistently score. The projections suggest that Jake Woodford may struggle, as he is expected to pitch around 4.8 innings while allowing 3.0 earned runs. On the other hand, George Kirby is projected to handle 5.7 innings with only 2.3 earned runs allowed, which could lead to a solid opportunity for the Mariners to capitalize on their betting favorite status with a moneyline of -150.

Sunday Series Game 3 Prediction Explination for Mariners vs Pirates Matchup

George Kirby has gone to his four-seam fastball 5.7% less often this season (33.7%) than he did last year (39.4%)., George Kirby – Over/Under Strikeouts, Julio Rodriguez has been unlucky this year, putting up a .301 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .358 — a .057 discrepancy., Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under Total Bases, In today’s matchup, Victor Robles is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.4% rate (94th percentile)., Victor Robles – Over/Under Total Bases, Out of all starting pitchers, Jake Woodford’s fastball velocity of 90.6 mph ranks in the 15th percentile this year., Jake Woodford – Over/Under Strikeouts, Isiah Kiner-Falefa has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (84% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today’s game., Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under Hits, The Pittsburgh Pirates have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jared Triolo, Michael A. Taylor, Oneil Cruz, Joey Bart).

Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be., Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance., This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance., Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs., The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower., Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts