Todays Game 3 Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Miami at New York Game 3 Matchup Today

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Brandon Nimmo ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Brandon Nimmo is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.8-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for bats.

Brandon Nimmo will hold the platoon advantage against Valente Bellozo today.

Brandon Nimmo has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Mark Vientos ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Mark Vientos is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s shallowest CF fences today.

Mark Vientos will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesse Winker in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Hitting from the opposite that Valente Bellozo throws from, Jesse Winker will have the upper hand today.

Jesse Winker has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Jesse Winker will hold that advantage in today’s game.

When it comes to his home run ability, Mark Vientos ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Mark Vientos has strong power (94th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (28.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Valente Bellozo doesn’t generate many whiffs (22nd percentile K%) — great news for Vientos.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Derek Hill in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Derek Hill has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (91% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

The shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Citi Field.

In the last 14 days, Derek Hill’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.4-mph over the course of the season to 103.9-mph of late.

Xavier Edwards is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.

Xavier Edwards has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Checking in at the 95th percentile, Xavier Edwards has posted a .382 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

When it comes to plate discipline, Xavier Edwards’s talent is quite good, putting up a 1.2 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 98th percentile.

Harrison Bader hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s shallowest CF fences today.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Harrison Bader will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez in the 90th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Otto Lopez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

In the last week, Otto Lopez’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92-mph over the course of the season to 95.8-mph of late.

In the past week’s worth of games, Otto Lopez’s 69.2% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 37.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 86th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

Jesus Sanchez is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

Jesus Sanchez will hold the platoon advantage against Paul Blackburn in today’s game.

The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jesus Sanchez has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.

Jonah Bride is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.

Jonah Bride pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

In the past week’s worth of games, Jonah Bride’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.2% up to 18.2%.

Jonah Bride’s launch angle of late (30° in the last week) is significantly higher than his 12° seasonal mark.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Francisco Lindor will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xavier Edwards in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

The switch-hitting Vidal Brujan will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Paul Blackburn.

Vidal Brujan has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.D. Martinez in the 88th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

J.D. Martinez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.

J.D. Martinez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Pete Alonso as the league’s 13th-best home run batter.

Pete Alonso is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.

Pete Alonso pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.8% — 79th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Pete Alonso will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Jeff McNeil’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jeff McNeil will hold the platoon advantage over Valente Bellozo today.

Jeff McNeil hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Jeff McNeil will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Kyle Stowers will hold the platoon advantage against Paul Blackburn in today’s game.

Kyle Stowers may have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP.

Kyle Stowers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s shallowest CF fences today.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.299) provides evidence that Kyle Stowers has experienced some negative variance this year with his .225 actual wOBA.

Placing in the 99th percentile, Xavier Edwards has notched a .356 batting average this year.

The New York Mets projected lineup profiles as the 5th-best on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.

It is scheduled that we will see a Hitters Umpire (David Arrieta) in charge of the strike zone in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically lowers pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Valente Bellozo in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 96th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

Jake Burger is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.

Jake Burger pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Jake Burger has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 13.3% seasonal rate to 25% in the past 14 days.

Jeff McNeil’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 12.7% to 15.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Otto Lopez’s true offensive talent to be a .299, indicating that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .049 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .250 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Alonso in the 97th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Compared to the average pitcher, Paul Blackburn has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying an extra 3.3 adjusted pitches each outing.

The Miami Marlins have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jake Burger, Kyle Stowers, Derek Hill).

Francisco Alvarez, the Mets’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, projects as a good pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The #7 venue in the league for boosting strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citi Field.

Paul Blackburn allowed a monstrous 6 earned runs in his last outing.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.D. Martinez in the 87th percentile when estimating his home run talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 78th percentile when estimating his home run skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Sunday Game 3 player match stat slumps with Marlins vs Mets Matchup

The #1 stadium in the league for suppressing offensive stats to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citi Field.

Citi Field’s elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to less offense.

The Miami Marlins outfield defense profiles as the 5th-strongest out of all the teams today.

Brandon Nimmo has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 10% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Brandon Nimmo has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91.7-mph dropping to 88.9-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

The #1 ballpark in MLB for suppressing batting average to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citi Field.

Valente Bellozo will hold the platoon advantage against Mark Vientos in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mark Vientos’s true offensive talent to be a .319, indicating that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .057 disparity between that mark and his actual .376 wOBA.

Jesse Winker is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

Jesse Winker has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 7.6% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the past 14 days.

Citi Field ranks as the #31 ballpark in Major League Baseball for overall RHB offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Paul Blackburn will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Derek Hill today.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Derek Hill in today’s matchup.

Derek Hill has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 9.1% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the past week.

When assessing his home run ability, Xavier Edwards ranks in the 1st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The #10 park in baseball for suppressing home runs to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citi Field.

The switch-hitting Xavier Edwards will be at a disadvantage batting from his weak side (0) today against Paul Blackburn, Xavier Edwards will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Harrison Bader is penciled in 9th in the batting order today.

Valente Bellozo will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Harrison Bader in today’s matchup.

Otto Lopez is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this game.

Paul Blackburn will have the handedness advantage against Otto Lopez in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Otto Lopez today.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jesus Sanchez today.

Jesus Sanchez’s launch angle lately (1.3° in the past two weeks’ worth of games) is a significant dropoff from his 8° seasonal angle.

As it relates to plate discipline, Jesus Sanchez’s talent is quite poor, putting up a 4.3 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 14th percentile.

Paul Blackburn will have the handedness advantage over Jonah Bride today.

Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jonah Bride in today’s game.

Jonah Bride has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .364 rate is a fair amount higher than his .317 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Citi Field projects as the #31 stadium in the game for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the plate, Francisco Lindor will bat from his worse side against Valente Bellozo today.

Francisco Lindor’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls lately (2.3° over the past two weeks) is considerably worse than his 17.8° seasonal angle.

Xavier Edwards’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 86.8-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 84.1-mph over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vidal Brujan in the 7th percentile when estimating his home run talent.

Vidal Brujan is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.

Vidal Brujan will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

Brandon Nimmo’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased in recent games, decreasing from 15.7% on the season to 0% over the last week.

Valente Bellozo will hold the platoon advantage against J.D. Martinez in today’s game.

J.D. Martinez’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 96.9-mph figure last season has fallen to 94.4-mph.

Citi Field profiles as the #22 park in Major League Baseball for right-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Harrison Bader has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 6.4% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past two weeks.

Hitting from the same side that Valente Bellozo throws from, Pete Alonso will have a disadvantage in today’s game.

Pete Alonso’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 94.9-mph figure last season has dropped to 92.9-mph.

Jeff McNeil is penciled in 8th in the lineup today.

Over the past 7 days, Jeff McNeil’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 20th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Kyle Stowers is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Kyle Stowers has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 17% of the time when starting against a northpaw this year.

The New York Mets have been the 7th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games, The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citi Field as the worst park in MLB for batting average.

Valente Bellozo was on point in his previous outing and conceded 0 ER.

Hitting from the same side that Paul Blackburn throws from, Jake Burger will have a disadvantage today.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jake Burger in today’s game.

As it relates to his home runs, Jake Burger has been very fortunate this year. His 34.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 31.0.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Derek Hill in the 21st percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeff McNeil in the 13th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

When estimating his home run ability, Otto Lopez ranks in the 11th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jesse Winker’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, decreasing from 14.7% to 9.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vidal Brujan in the 13th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Due to his reverse platoon split, Paul Blackburn will have a tough matchup going up against 6 bats in the projected batting order of the same handedness in this matchup.

Paul Blackburn’s 91.4-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 25th percentile out of all starters.

The Miami Marlins projected lineup profiles as the 2nd-worst of the day in terms of overall hitting skill.

Paul Blackburn will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats in all categories.

As it relates to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Valente Bellozo in the 25th percentile among all starters in Major League Baseball.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Valente Bellozo is projected to throw 82 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 8th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.

Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Kyle Stowers in today’s matchup.

Jake Burger has shown weak plate discipline this year, checking in at the 11th percentile with a 4.68 K/BB rate.