Todays Game 4 Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Boston at Baltimore Game 4 Matchup Today

Anthony Santander is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

This matchup is projected to have the 14th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s shallowest RF fences today.

Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.

Anthony Santander will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Kutter Crawford in the 84th percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.

Kutter Crawford’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2553 rpm) has been considerably better than than his seasonal rate (2499 rpm).

Among all SPs, Kutter Crawford’s fastball spin rate of 2499 rpm is in the 92nd percentile this year.

Given the 0.76 gap between Kutter Crawford’s 8.54 K/9 and his 9.30 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year in terms of strikeouts and should see better results in the future.

Checking in at the 79th percentile, Kutter Crawford has recorded a 24.8% Strikeout% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 90th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

Jarren Duran is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

Jarren Duran will hold the platoon advantage against Albert Suarez today.

Jarren Duran has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 94-mph average to last year’s 90.3-mph average.

The Baltimore Orioles projected batting order projects as the 3rd-strongest on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill.

When it comes to his home run skill, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Albert Suarez throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an advantage today.

Wilyer Abreu hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

As it relates to his BABIP talent, Jarren Duran is projected as the 11th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest out of every team playing today.

When assessing his BABIP talent, Colton Cowser is projected as the 20th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Colton Cowser has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (73% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Kutter Crawford throws from, Colton Cowser will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

The #7 venue in MLB for boosting base hits to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Triston Casas is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Triston Casas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Albert Suarez in today’s matchup.

Ceddanne Rafaela has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Adley Rutschman (the Orioles’s expected catcher today) projects as a good pitch framer.

Due to his reverse platoon split, Albert Suarez figures to be at an advantage being matched up with 6 batters in the projected lineup of the opposite hand in this outing.

Albert Suarez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should bolster all of his metrics across the board.

Out of all starters, Albert Suarez’s fastball spin rate of 2386 rpm is in the 75th percentile this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 92nd percentile when estimating his home run skill.

Triston Casas hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Mountcastle in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Ryan Mountcastle is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today’s game.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards grades out as the #7 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Ryan Mountcastle has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

When assessing his home run skill, Anthony Santander ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 83rd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Colton Cowser will hold that advantage today.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Ryan Mountcastle ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Ryan Mountcastle will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Albert Suarez in the 25th percentile as it relates to his overall pitching talent.

With a 1.46 gap between Albert Suarez’s 3.39 ERA and his 4.85 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this year and ought to see negative regression the rest of the season.

Sunday Game 4 player match stat slumps with Red Sox vs Orioles Matchup

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Santander in the 2nd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #29 stadium in the majors for lefty home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the 9th-highest fence height (on average) in the majors.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Anthony Santander will be less advantaged while batting from his bad side against Kutter Crawford in today’s game.

Extreme groundball batters like Anthony Santander tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Kutter Crawford.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kutter Crawford to throw 81 pitches in today’s game (6th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

Quinn Wolcott grades out as a Hitters Umpire and is anticipated to be umping in this game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Connor Wong (the Red Sox’s expected catcher today) grades out as a weak pitch framer.

Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Kutter Crawford (42.3% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in Baltimore’s projected batting order.

Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.3%) and will be challenged by baseball’s deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jarren Duran in today’s game.

In the last week’s worth of games, Jarren Duran’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.7% down to 0%.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s appraisal, Kutter Crawford’s overall pitching talent grades out in the 80th percentile among all starters in the league currently.

The Baltimore Orioles have been the 9th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season, The #1 venue in the majors for suppressing walks, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Among all major league parks, Oriole Park at Camden Yards’s LF dimensions are the deepest.

Wilyer Abreu will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Despite posting a .359 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Wilyer Abreu has had some very good luck given the .035 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .324.

Colton Cowser has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and will be challenged by the game’s deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Colton Cowser’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 90.9-mph seasonal average has dropped to 87.6-mph in the past 14 days.

Colton Cowser’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off lately, going from 17.3% on the season to 0% in the past week.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.230) suggests that Wilyer Abreu has been very fortunate this year with his .269 actual batting average.

Triston Casas will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

From last season to this one, Triston Casas’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 40% to 30.8%.

Triston Casas’s footspeed has fallen off this year. His 24.86 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.12 ft/sec now.

Triston Casas has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .349 figure is a good deal higher than his .257 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Ceddanne Rafaela is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 3rd-worst stadium in the game for right-handed home runs.

Hitting from the same side that Albert Suarez throws from, Ceddanne Rafaela will be at a disadvantage today.

Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ceddanne Rafaela today.

Albert Suarez has notched an 18.3% K% this year, placing in the 21st percentile.

Over the last 14 days, Jarren Duran’s 7.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jarren Duran’s true offensive skill to be a .334, indicating that he has been lucky this year given the .029 disparity between that figure and his actual .363 wOBA.

Triston Casas’s launch angle this year (10.6°) is considerably worse than his 15.6° mark last year.

Batting from the same side that Kutter Crawford throws from, Ryan Mountcastle will have a tough matchup in today’s matchup.

Ryan Mountcastle has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8.8% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last two weeks.

Ryan Mountcastle’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 93.9-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 79.9-mph over the past two weeks.

Ryan Mountcastle has exhibited bad plate discipline this year, ranking in the 21st percentile with a 3.78 K/BB rate.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (35.2) may lead us to conclude that Anthony Santander has been lucky this year with his 42.7 actual HR/600.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Anthony Santander has been lucky this year. His .354 rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .339.

Sporting a .229 BABIP this year, Anthony Santander is positioned in the 3rd percentile.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Ceddanne Rafaela’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.4% down to 0%.

Ceddanne Rafaela’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined lately; his 92.6-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 74.1-mph in the last 14 days.

The Boston Red Sox have been the luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward