Mariners @ Astros Matchup Details

Positives for the Seattle Mariners Game Today

Long-balls are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the shallowest among all stadiums.

Batting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Dominic Canzone will have an advantage today.

Dominic Canzone has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.3-mph average to last year’s 89.9-mph average.

Compared to last season, Dominic Canzone has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 35% to 47.4% this season.

Posting a .363 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Dominic Canzone is positioned in the 95th percentile for offensive skills.

When estimating his home run skill, Dominic Canzone ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

As it relates to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Bryan Woo in the 89th percentile among all SPs in baseball.

Throwing 91.9 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Bryan Woo ranks in the 77th percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher today) projects as an elite pitch framer.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Minute Maid Park as the 3rd-best venue in the league for strikeouts.

When estimating his BABIP talent, Zachary Cole is projected as the 13th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Zachary Cole will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bryan Woo today… and even more favorably, Woo has a large platoon split.

Among all the teams today, the 6th-weakest infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.

Zachary Cole will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 95th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

Christian Walker is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

Christian Walker pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.1% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Despite posting a .304 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Christian Walker has suffered from bad luck given the .027 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .331.

Victor Caratini is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup.

As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Victor Caratini will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Bryan Woo) in today’s game.

Victor Caratini will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

This season, Victor Caratini has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 92.9 mph compared to last year’s 89.9 mph mark.

Eugenio Suarez projects as the 13th-best home run batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Eugenio Suarez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.1% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Hitters such as Eugenio Suarez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Hunter Brown who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

Eugenio Suarez has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.8-mph average to last year’s 92.6-mph average.

Last season, Eugenio Suarez had an average launch angle of 18.8° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 22.3°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Naylor in the 87th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Josh Naylor is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.

Josh Naylor will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown in today’s matchup.

Hitting 3 long-balls over the past 14 days, Josh Naylor has been on fire recently.

With a 1.7 K/BB rate this year, Josh Naylor has shown favorable plate discipline, grading out in the 81st percentile.

With a .288 batting average this year, Josh Naylor is ranked in the 92nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Jose Altuve is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Carlos Correa’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Carlos Correa is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.

The shallowest LF fences among all major league stadiums are found in Minute Maid Park.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Carlos Correa will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, J.P. Crawford will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

J.P. Crawford has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

J.P. Crawford’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 16.6% to 19.8%.

J.P. Crawford has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .264 rate is deflated compared to his .286 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

By putting up a 1.58 K/BB rate this year, J.P. Crawford has demonstrated impressive plate discipline, grading out in the 85th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.P. Crawford in the 78th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Arozarena in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Randy Arozarena is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.

This year, Randy Arozarena has an average exit velocity of 91.4 mph, which ranks among the best in the game at the 84th percentile.

By putting up a .354 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Randy Arozarena is ranked in the 85th percentile.

Randy Arozarena has compiled a .315 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year, checking in at the 82nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Polanco in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Jorge Polanco is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today’s game.

Extreme groundball hitters like Jorge Polanco tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Brown.

Jorge Polanco has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 90.6-mph average to last year’s 88.3-mph EV.

Based on Statcast metrics, Jorge Polanco is in the 79th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .342.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Given Bryan Woo’s large platoon split, Jesus Sanchez will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today’s game.

Jesus Sanchez has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Jesus Sanchez will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Jeremy Pena is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.

Jeremy Pena pulls many of his flyballs (33.5% — 79th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Jeremy Pena will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Jake Meyers will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Jake Meyers’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 44.4% to 49.6%.

When it comes to his home runs, Jake Meyers has had some very poor luck this year. His 5.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 10.5.

Sporting a .369 BABIP this year, Jake Meyers grades out in the 99th percentile.

When assessing his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Hunter Brown in the 91st percentile among all SPs in the league.

Hunter Brown has averaged 95.6 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, grading out in the 94th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Hunter Brown as the 20th-best starting pitcher in baseball right now.

The Seattle Mariners have been the 4th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future,Minute Maid Park ranks as the #23 ballpark in the majors for batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Cal Raleigh as the league’s 5th-best home run hitter.

Cal Raleigh is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.

Batters such as Cal Raleigh with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Hunter Brown who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Cal Raleigh has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.1-mph average to last year’s 94.9-mph mark.

Cal Raleigh’s launch angle this year (24.9°) is quite a bit better than his 21° angle last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cal Raleigh in the 97th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 4th-best hitter in MLB as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Julio Rodriguez is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.

Julio Rodriguez has recorded a .274 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Julio Rodriguez’s maximum exit velocity (an advanced standard to evaluate power) has been 115.4 mph this year, ranking in the 91st percentile.

Julio Rodriguez has compiled a .502 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year, grading out in the 93rd percentile.

Despite posting a .343 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Julio Rodriguez has been unlucky given the .019 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .362.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Leonardo Rivas in the 75th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Leonardo Rivas is in the 78th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (46.2% rate since the start of last season).

Checking in at the 83rd percentile, Leonardo Rivas sits with a .331 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season.

With a 1.56 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Leonardo Rivas has displayed favorable plate discipline, grading out in the 92nd percentile.

When assessing his batting average ability, Yainer Diaz is projected as the 19th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Yainer Diaz will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Despite posting a .302 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Yainer Diaz has been unlucky given the .029 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .331.

Negatives with the Houston Astros Game Today

Dominic Canzone is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Minute Maid Park as the 6th-worst venue in MLB for LHB batting average.

Minute Maid Park’s elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which often leads to less offense.

The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -5° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.

Dominic Canzone will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Minute Maid Park as the 7th-worst stadium in baseball for run-scoring.

The league’s 3rd-highest fence height (on average) can be found at Minute Maid Park.

Playing on the road typically reduces pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Bryan Woo today.

Bryan Woo’s high utilization percentage of his fastball (72.9% this year) is likely dampening his results, since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

Bryan Woo has been very fortunate when it comes to his strikeouts this year, posting a 9.46 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.24 — a 0.22 K/9 deviation.

Zachary Cole is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card today.

Bryan Woo will have the handedness advantage over Christian Walker today… and it’s an even larger mismatch considering Woo’s large platoon split.

Posting a 4.14 K/BB rate this year, Christian Walker has shown poor plate discipline, placing in the 16th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 13th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Minute Maid Park as the 6th-worst ballpark in the league for RHB batting average.

Victor Caratini’s BABIP skill is projected in the 24th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Victor Caratini hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Eugenio Suarez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today’s game.

Hitting from the same side that Hunter Brown throws from, Eugenio Suarez has a tough challenge today.

Josh Naylor pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.4% — 85th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-deepest RF fences today.

Josh Naylor will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Bryan Woo will hold the platoon advantage over Jose Altuve today… and it’s an even larger mismatch considering Woo’s large platoon split.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.290) may lead us to conclude that Jose Altuve has experienced some positive variance this year with his .330 actual wOBA.

Given Bryan Woo’s large platoon split, Carlos Correa will be at a gigantic disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in this game.

In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Carlos Correa ranks in just the 7th percentile with a 7.3° launch angle, which is one of the lowest angles in the game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.P. Crawford in the 14th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

J.P. Crawford is penciled in 9th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for J.P. Crawford in today’s game.

Hitting from the same side that Hunter Brown throws from, Randy Arozarena will be in a tough position today.

Randy Arozarena hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Jorge Polanco pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.3% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 9th-deepest RF fences today.

Jorge Polanco will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Jesus Sanchez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (88% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.

Jesus Sanchez’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 96.2-mph EV last season has dropped to 93.4-mph.

Bryan Woo will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jeremy Pena in today’s game… and it’s an even bigger mismatch considering Woo’s large platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jeremy Pena’s true offensive ability to be a .331, implying that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .032 disparity between that mark and his actual .363 wOBA.

Jake Meyers is projected to hit 8th in the batting order today.

Given Bryan Woo’s large platoon split, Jake Meyers will be at a huge disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish in today’s game.

Considering that flyball hitters hold a substantial advantage over groundball pitchers, Hunter Brown and his 48.7% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome spot in this outing being matched up with 3 opposing GB hitters.

Hunter Brown’s higher usage rate of his fastball this year (60.3 compared to 53% last year) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

Considering the 0.16 difference between Hunter Brown’s 9.91 K/9 and his 9.75 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball this year in terms of strikeouts and ought to see negative regression the rest of the season.

The 3rd-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the Seattle Mariners.

Considering the 1.36 gap between Hunter Brown’s 2.27 ERA and his 3.63 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the game this year and figures to perform worse the rest of the season.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Cal Raleigh will be at a disadvantage batting from his bad side against Hunter Brown in today’s game.

Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.3% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 9th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Hunter Brown will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Julio Rodriguez in today’s matchup.

Julio Rodriguez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Leonardo Rivas is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this game.

As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the plate, Leonardo Rivas will bat from his bad side against Hunter Brown today.

As it relates to his home run talent, Leonardo Rivas ranks in the 12th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Yainer Diaz is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game.

Given Bryan Woo’s large platoon split, Yainer Diaz will be at an enormous disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in today’s game.

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