Todays Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Los Angeles at San Diego Matchup Today

The 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors are found in Petco Park.

Nick Ahmed has made notable improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 3.9% seasonal rate to 11.1% over the past week.

Compared to his seasonal average of 12.5°, Nick Ahmed has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 33.3° angle over the last 7 days.

Last year, Nick Ahmed had an average launch angle of 11.7° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 15.2°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Petco Park has the 3rd-shortest average fence height among all parks.

Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Glasnow throws from, Jackson Merrill will have an advantage today.

Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Jackson Merrill will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Cavan Biggio will have the handedness advantage over Matt Waldron in today’s game.

Cavan Biggio hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Cavan Biggio’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (24.8°) is considerably higher than his 14.4° angle last season.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 4th-best hitter in baseball.

Shohei Ohtani is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Matt Waldron throws from, Shohei Ohtani will have the upper hand today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.

Xander Bogaerts will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ha-seong Kim in the 76th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Ha-seong Kim hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Ha-seong Kim will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which should boost all of his stats.

Ha-seong Kim has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 88.2-mph average to last season’s 86.1-mph EV.

When assessing his home run skill, Teoscar Hernandez ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Teoscar Hernandez is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

Teoscar Hernandez has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 98.8-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal average of 95.9-mph.

Compared to his seasonal average of 9.7°, Teoscar Hernandez has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 24.8° figure in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Jake Cronenworth is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.

Jake Cronenworth will have the handedness advantage over Tyler Glasnow today.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Jake Cronenworth will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Luis Arraez is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Glasnow throws from, Luis Arraez will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Luis Arraez will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects David Peralta in the 75th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

David Peralta will hold the platoon advantage against Tyler Glasnow in today’s game.

David Peralta hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and David Peralta will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Over the past 7 days, Jackson Merrill’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.5% up to 14.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Arraez as the best hitter in the majors when estimating his batting average skill.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Will Smith ranks as the 20th-best batter in baseball.

Will Smith is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Will Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Last year, Will Smith had an average launch angle of 12.4° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 22.3°.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Xander Bogaerts ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Kike Hernandez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Kike Hernandez has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 90.6-mph average to last season’s 87.8-mph average.

Kike Hernandez’s launch angle in recent games (18.1° in the past two weeks’ worth of games) is significantly better than his 15° seasonal angle.

Jason Heyward has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (82% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Matt Waldron throws from, Jason Heyward will have an edge in today’s game.

Jason Heyward has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 94.6-mph average over the last week to his seasonal EV of 92.3-mph.

By putting up a 1.85 K/BB rate this year, Jason Heyward has displayed strong plate discipline, ranking in the 87th percentile.

David Peralta’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 12.8% to 19.8%.

When assessing his BABIP skill, Teoscar Hernandez is projected as the 11th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Petco Park ranks as the #3 field in Major League Baseball for home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Tyler Glasnow will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Tyler Glasnow has utilized his secondary pitches 12.1% less often this year (44.4%) than he did last season (56.5%).

Batting from the opposite that Matt Waldron throws from, James Outman will have an edge today.

James Outman has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.3-mph average to last year’s 92.4-mph average.

As it relates to his batting average, James Outman has had some very poor luck this year. His .152 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .204.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Manny Machado is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.

Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Manny Machado will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Xander Bogaerts has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 100.8-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal average of 90.4-mph.

Kike Hernandez’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, going from 42.6% on the season to 75% in the past week.

Gavin Lux has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (93% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.

Batting from the opposite that Matt Waldron throws from, Gavin Lux will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Gavin Lux hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Gavin Lux has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 4.1% seasonal rate to 10.5% in the last two weeks.

When assessing his strikeout skill, Tyler Glasnow projects as the 4th-best starting pitcher in the game currently, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Throwing 92.5 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Tyler Glasnow places in the 80th percentile.

Petco Park grades out as the #7 ballpark in baseball for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jurickson Profar in the 81st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Jurickson Profar is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.

Jurickson Profar will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

In the past 7 days, Jurickson Profar’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.7% up to 22.7%.

Tallying 91.7 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Matt Waldron places in the 76th percentile.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Teoscar Hernandez, James Outman, Cavan Biggio).

Kyle Higashioka, the Padres’s expected catcher in today’s game, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Higashioka in the 90th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Kyle Higashioka will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Kyle Higashioka has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 97.9-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal EV of 94.1-mph.

Manny Machado has made substantial strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 9.1% seasonal rate to 21.1% in the past week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 76th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

David Peralta’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, going from 19.8% on the season to 31.3% over the past two weeks.

Jason Heyward has put up a .287 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year, placing in the 79th percentile.

Kyle Higashioka’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 17.5% to 27%.

Kyle Higashioka’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, increasing from 44% on the season to 68.4% in the past two weeks.

Teoscar Hernandez has recorded a .344 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, placing in the 84th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

As it relates to plate discipline, Will Smith’s talent is quite impressive, putting up a 2.03 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 75th percentile.

Despite posting a .261 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Kike Hernandez has had bad variance on his side given the .033 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .294.

In terms of his batting average, Ha-seong Kim has experienced some negative variance this year. His .232 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .253.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, James Outman has suffered from bad luck this year. His .238 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .287.

In the last 14 days, Jurickson Profar’s 27.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.8%.

Tuesday player match stat slumps with Dodgers vs Padres Matchup

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Ahmed in the 11th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Nick Ahmed is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this game.

Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which tends to lead to worse offense.

The weather report predicts the 2nd-most suitable pitching weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

Matt Waldron will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Ahmed in today’s matchup.

Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today’s game.

In terms of plate discipline, Jackson Merrill’s ability is quite weak, sporting a 4.24 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 16th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cavan Biggio in the 17th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Cavan Biggio is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.

When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Cavan Biggio has been pinch hit for 16% of the time.

Shohei Ohtani will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Shohei Ohtani has been lucky this year, notching a .431 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .404 — a .027 disparity.

Hitting from the same side that Tyler Glasnow throws from, Xander Bogaerts has a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Over the past two weeks, Xander Bogaerts’s 5.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.2%.

Ranking in the 20th percentile, Xander Bogaerts has notched a .176 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Nick Ahmed in today’s matchup.

Ha-seong Kim is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today’s game.

Hitting from the same side that Tyler Glasnow throws from, Ha-seong Kim will have a disadvantage today.

Ha-seong Kim’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off lately; his 90.8-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 83.3-mph in the past 7 days.

Batting from the same side that Matt Waldron throws from, Teoscar Hernandez will not have the upper hand in today’s game.

Teoscar Hernandez has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and will be challenged by baseball’s 6th-deepest RF fences today.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Teoscar Hernandez in today’s game.

Jake Cronenworth’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 89.2-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 84.9-mph in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Arraez in the 1st percentile when estimating his home run skill.

Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 89.6-mph average last season has lowered to 87.1-mph.

In the last 14 days, Luis Arraez has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

When it comes to his home runs, Luis Arraez has had some very good luck this year. His 4.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 2.0.

David Peralta is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game.

David Peralta has been pulled from the game early 35% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.

David Peralta has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.1-mph dropping to 84-mph over the last 7 days.

Jake Cronenworth’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (10.9°) is considerably worse than his 14.6° angle last season.

Luis Arraez has hit 3.2 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year, ranking in the 3rd percentile for power.

Batting from the same side that Matt Waldron throws from, Will Smith will be in a tough position today.

Will Smith will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

In the last two weeks, Will Smith’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.2% down to 0%.

Kike Hernandez is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.

Hitting from the same side that Matt Waldron throws from, Kike Hernandez will have a tough challenge in today’s game.

Kike Hernandez will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jason Heyward in the 8th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Jason Heyward has been pinch hit for 25% of the time.

Jason Heyward pulls many of his flyballs (36.2% — 92nd percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tyler Glasnow as the 8th-best SP in the game currently.

The San Diego Padres have been the 10th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season, Tyler Glasnow performed well in his last GS and allowed 2 ER.

Tyler Glasnow’s 95.8-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 92nd percentile out of all starting pitchers.

James Outman’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 10th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

James Outman is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

James Outman has been pulled from the game early 22% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.

Cavan Biggio will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

Tyler Glasnow will have the handedness advantage against Manny Machado today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kike Hernandez in the 8th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Gavin Lux has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 11% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.

Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Gavin Lux in today’s game.

Gavin Lux’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, rising from 11.5% on the season to 15.4% over the last 7 days.

The San Diego Padres (18.2 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-prone team of hitters on the slate.

When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Jurickson Profar has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 11% of the time.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the dish, Jurickson Profar will be at a disadvantage batting from his bad side against Tyler Glasnow today.

Jurickson Profar pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.6% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences today.

Matt Waldron’s 90-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 10th percentile among all starting pitchers.

Among all SPs, Matt Waldron’s fastball spin rate of 2057 rpm ranks in the 11th percentile this year.

Matt Waldron has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts this year, notching a 7.81 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.58 — a 0.24 K/9 gap.

Grading out in the 15th percentile, Matt Waldron put up an 8.5% Swinging Strike rate this year.

Kyle Higashioka is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game.

Kyle Higashioka has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 25% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.

Batting from the same side that Tyler Glasnow throws from, Kyle Higashioka faces a tough challenge today.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (35.3) provides evidence that Kyle Higashioka has been very fortunate this year with his 47.1 actual HR/600.

Today’s version of the Dodgers projected lineup is weaker than usual, as their .323 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .339 overall projected rate.

Home field advantage generally improves pitcher metrics in all categories, and Matt Waldron will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Matt Waldron’s high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (66.4% this year) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 12.1°, Manny Machado has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (2.7°) over the past two weeks.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jason Heyward today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Higashioka in the 8th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

James Outman pulls a lot of his flyballs (38% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.