Todays 08/18/2024 Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Dodgers at Cardinals Matchup Prediction for Today

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 18, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Cardinals, sitting at 61-62, are having an average season and are not in contention for the division title. Meanwhile, the Dodgers boast a strong record of 72-52, solidifying their status as a playoff contender. In their last matchup, the Dodgers edged out the Cardinals, adding pressure on St. Louis as they look to even the series in this pivotal third game., Sonny Gray is projected to take the mound for the Cardinals, bringing a solid 11-7 record and a respectable ERA of 3.93. While Gray ranks as the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB, the projections indicate he might be due for a better performance, given his 2.73 xFIP suggests some misfortune in his outings. However, he faces a tough challenge against a Dodgers offense that ranks 5th in the league, highlighted by their 3rd best home run total. , On the other side, Clayton Kershaw is set to start for Los Angeles, with a 1-2 record in just four starts this season. His ERA stands at 3.50, but with a 4.05 xFIP, he may not be as effective as his numbers suggest. Kershaw’s experience and ability to navigate tough lineups will be crucial in keeping the Cardinals’ offense, which ranks 20th overall, at bay., Betting markets have set the game total at 8.0 runs, indicating a competitive matchup. With the Cardinals’ moneyline at +100 and the Dodgers at -120, the close odds reflect the potential for a tightly contested game. As both teams look to make their mark, the outcome will hinge on how well Gray can handle the Dodgers’ potent lineup while Kershaw aims to solidify his standing against a struggling offense.

Sunday Series Game 3 Prediction Explination for Dodgers vs Cardinals Matchup

Tallying 81.2 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Clayton Kershaw falls in the 19th percentile., Clayton Kershaw – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-170), There has been a decrease in Miguel Rojas’s average exit velocity this year, from 87.3 mph last year to 84.3 mph now, Miguel Rojas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205), Los Angeles Dodgers hitters as a group place 5th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when judging by their 9.1% Barrel%., It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Sonny Gray must realize this, because he has used his non-fastballs a lot this year: 59.8% of the time, grading out in the 79th percentile., Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120), In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Victor Scott has been unlucky this year. His .158 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .251., Victor Scott II – Over/Under Total Bases, Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game., Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170), Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 22 games (+9.10 Units / 34% ROI), Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)

Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs., Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it., Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power., A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts., xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can., This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.