Cubs @ Braves Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positives for the Chicago Cubs Series Game 3 Game Today

Ozzie Albies is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 5th-best stadium in baseball for LHB batting average.

,In the majors, Truist Park’s centerfield fences are the 5th-shallowest.

,Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.

,As far as temperature and humidity go, the 4th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

,Michael Harris II has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (73% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.

,Seiya Suzuki projects as the 17th-best batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Truist Park projects as the #5 ballpark in MLB for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

,Ian Happ is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

,Matt Olson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Riley in the 93rd percentile when assessing his home run ability.

,The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.7-mph in this game, the best of the day for batters.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dominic Smith in the 75th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Shaw in the 76th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

,As it relates to his home run ability, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,As it relates to his batting average skill, Nico Hoerner is projected as the 11th-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Nico Hoerner is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Because of Chris Sale’s huge platoon split, Carson Kelly will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.

,Mauricio Dubon is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

,Mauricio Dubon hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

,When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Michael Harris II ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,When it comes to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Ben Brown in the 80th percentile among all starters in Major League Baseball.

,Ben Brown has a large reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 6 opposite-handed batters today.

,Ben Brown’s 95.1-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 78th percentile among all SPs.

,Ben Brown has compiled a 12% Swinging Strike percentage since the start of last season, ranking in the 78th percentile.

,Ha-seong Kim will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

,As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Drake Baldwin ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Drake Baldwin is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.

,When assessing his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

,Dansby Swanson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (98% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,The 2nd-best projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Chicago Cubs.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Truist Park as the 3rd-best field in the majors for base hits.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mike Yastrzemski in the 75th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

,When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Carson Kelly ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Nico Hoerner will hold the platoon advantage over Chris Sale in today’s game… and the cherry on top, Sale has a huge platoon split.

,Hitting from the opposite that Ben Brown throws from, Dominic Smith will have an advantage today.

,Dominic Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,Given Chris Sale’s huge platoon split, Matt Shaw will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today’s matchup.

,Matt Shaw has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 86.9-mph average to last season’s 84.7-mph EV.

,When estimating his overall offensive talent, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Austin Riley will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

,When it comes to his strikeout ability, Chris Sale projects as the 11th-best pitcher in the majors currently, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Chris Sale is projected to throw 99 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the most of all pitchers on the slate today.

,Chris Sale has notched a 13.3% Swinging Strike rate this year, placing in the 88th percentile.

,Chris Sale has notched a 29.9% K% this year, placing in the 94th percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Riley in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Negatives with the Atlanta Braves Series Game 3 Game Today

Ozzie Albies’s BABIP skill is projected in the 7th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,The switch-hitting Ozzie Albies will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side (0) today against Ben Brown,The Chicago Cubs infield defense profiles as the strongest among every team in action today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ozzie Albies’s true offensive talent to be a .314, providing some evidence that he has been lucky this year given the .050 disparity between that figure and his actual .364 wOBA.

,Based on Statcast data, Ozzie Albies grades out in the 12th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .283.

,Michael Harris II is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Chicago (#1-best of all teams today).

,Michael Harris II’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, decreasing from 13.8% to 10.7%.

,Michael Harris II has been lucky this year, notching a .361 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .327 — a .034 deviation.

,Sporting a 7.16 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Michael Harris II has demonstrated poor plate discipline, grading out in the 1st percentile.

,Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-strongest infield defense is that of the the Atlanta Braves.

,Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Seiya Suzuki in today’s game.

,Seiya Suzuki has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 16.9% rate last year has fallen off to 9.7% this season.

,Truist Park has the 3rd-deepest LF fences among all stadiums.

,The switch-hitting Ian Happ will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side (0) today against Chris Sale… and it’s an over-sized mismatch considering Sale’s huge platoon split.

,Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Ian Happ in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Matt Olson’s true offensive talent to be a .353, implying that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .068 deviation between that figure and his actual .421 wOBA.

,Austin Riley is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

,Hitting from the same side that Ben Brown throws from, Austin Riley will be at a disadvantage today.

,Austin Riley has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 15.6% rate last year has decreased to 9.1% this year.

,Dominic Smith is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.

,Dominic Smith’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last season to this one, falling from 53.3% to 47.8%.

,Dominic Smith has been lucky this year, notching a .400 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .313 — a .087 gap.

,Since the start of last season, Dominic Smith’s 5.5% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 22nd percentile among his peers.

,Matt Shaw is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

,Matt Shaw will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

,Checking in at the 21st percentile, Matt Shaw has notched a .270 BABIP since the start of last season.

,Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Considering Chris Sale’s huge platoon split, Pete Crow-Armstrong will be at a massive disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate today.

,Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Pete Crow-Armstrong in today’s game.

,Pete Crow-Armstrong’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, going from 17.4% to 11.4%.

,Nico Hoerner will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

,Nico Hoerner’s 2% Barrel% (a reliable standard to study power) is in the 8th percentile this year.

,Nico Hoerner’s maximum exit velocity (a reliable standard to study power) has been 105.8 mph this year, ranking in the 8th percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Kelly in the 17th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

,Carson Kelly is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this game.

,Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Carson Kelly today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 12th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

,Truist Park profiles as the #22 ballpark in the league for right-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Ben Brown will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mauricio Dubon today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mauricio Dubon’s true offensive ability to be a .283, implying that he has been very fortunate this year given the .033 disparity between that figure and his actual .316 wOBA.

,Based on Statcast metrics, Mauricio Dubon is in the 3rd percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 1.800.

,Michael Busch is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

,Chris Sale will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael Busch in today’s game… and it’s an over-sized mismatch considering Sale’s huge platoon split.

,Michael Busch will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

,Michael Busch has struggled with his Barrel%; his 17% rate last season has fallen to 9% this year.

,Truist Park ranks as the #22 venue in the game for left-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ben Brown to be on a bit of a short leash today, projecting a maximum of 79 pitches.

,Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Atlanta Braves with a 19.8% underlying K%.

,John Libka grades out as a Hitters Umpire and is likely to be behind the plate today.

,Projected catcher Carson Kelly projects as a weak pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ha-seong Kim in the 17th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

,Ha-seong Kim is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.

,Batting from the same side that Ben Brown throws from, Ha-seong Kim will have a tough challenge today.

,Ha-seong Kim pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.4% — 88th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mike Yastrzemski in the 12th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

,Mike Yastrzemski is projected to hit 9th in the lineup today.

,Chicago’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Mike Yastrzemski, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

,Mike Yastrzemski has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 9.1% rate last year has lowered to 3.6% this season.

,Drake Baldwin has been lucky this year, posting a .383 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .338 — a .045 disparity.

,Posting a 3.000 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Nico Hoerner is ranked in the 6th percentile for power.

,Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.4% — 88th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Alex Bregman today.

,Alex Bregman’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, going from 15% to 10.1%.

,Alex Bregman has recorded a .230 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, grading out in the 24th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Dansby Swanson in today’s matchup.

,Dansby Swanson’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last season to this one, decreasing from 48.5% to 40%.

,Dansby Swanson’s speed has declined this year. His 28.48 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 27.81 ft/sec now.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chris Sale as the 17th-best starter in the game currently.

,It may be wise to expect worse numbers for the Chicago Cubs offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 8th-luckiest offense in the league this year.

,Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher metrics in all categories, and Chris Sale will hold that advantage today.

,Mike Yastrzemski’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 92.4-mph mark last season has decreased to 88-mph.

,There has been a significant decline in Mike Yastrzemski’s launch angle from last year’s 20.7° to 14.3° this season.

,Carson Kelly’s launch angle this year (12.4°) is quite a bit lower than his 16.4° mark last season.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner in the 4th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

,Despite posting a .388 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Seiya Suzuki has been very fortunate given the .025 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .363.

,Ozzie Albies’s 4.3% Barrel% (an advanced metric to evaluate power) is in the 20th percentile this year.

,Ha-seong Kim’s 88.8-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced stat to assess power) is in the 19th percentile since the start of last season.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 15th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

,Posting a .270 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Mauricio Dubon is positioned in the 6th percentile for hitting ability.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s assessment, Ben Brown’s overall pitching ability grades out in the 80th percentile out of all SPs in Major League Baseball right now.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Atlanta Braves today owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .323, which is quite a bit worse than their actual wOBA of .339 this year.

,It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Atlanta Braves offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in the league this year.

,The Chicago Cubs (20.4 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone group of batters on the slate today.

,Checking in at the 22nd percentile, Dansby Swanson sits with a .206 batting average this year.

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