Braves @ Pirates Matchup Details

Positives for the Atlanta Braves Game Today

Mauricio Dubon is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.

,Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report projects the 3rd-highest humidity on the slate at 78%.

,Mauricio Dubon’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, increasing from 17.2% on the season to 33.3% in the past week’s worth of games.

,As it relates to plate discipline, Mauricio Dubon’s ability is quite strong, sporting a 1.8 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 75th percentile.

,PNC Park projects as the #4 field in baseball for lefty base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.

,Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Jake Mangum will hold that advantage today.

,With a .361 BABIP this year, Jake Mangum finds himself in the 96th percentile.

,When assessing his overall offensive skill, Drake Baldwin ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Drake Baldwin is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game.

,Drake Baldwin will have the handedness advantage against Paul Skenes in today’s game.

,As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Mike Yastrzemski ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Hitting from the opposite that Paul Skenes throws from, Mike Yastrzemski will have an advantage today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mike Yastrzemski’s true offensive ability to be a .330, providing some evidence that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .033 disparity between that figure and his actual .297 wOBA.

,Ozzie Albies is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

,In the past 7 days, Ozzie Albies’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4.4% up to 14.3%.

,In the last 7 days, Ozzie Albies’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.6-mph over the course of the season to 96.2-mph recently.

,When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Austin Riley ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,The #4 stadium in the game for boosting BABIP to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.

,Austin Riley has been unlucky this year, notching a .278 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .337 — a .059 deviation.

,The switch-hitting Endy Rodriguez will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Hurston Waldrep.

,Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Endy Rodriguez will hold that advantage today.

,Endy Rodriguez has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 13.6% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the last week.

,In the last 7 days, Endy Rodriguez’s 57.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.7%.

,When assessing his home run ability, Matt Olson ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Matt Olson is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Matt Olson will have the handedness advantage against Paul Skenes in today’s matchup.

,When assessing his BABIP skill, Konnor Griffin is projected as the 3rd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Konnor Griffin has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (73% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Konnor Griffin will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which should boost all of his stats.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Gonzales in the 96th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

,Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Nick Gonzales will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,Nick Gonzales has posted a .297 batting average this year, ranking in the 96th percentile.

,When estimating his BABIP skill, Bryan Reynolds is projected as the 20th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.

,Batting from the opposite that Paul Skenes throws from, Dominic Smith will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dominic Smith in the 77th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

,Over the last 14 days, Ozzie Albies’s 22.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.8%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 96th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

,Hitting from the opposite that Hurston Waldrep throws from, Tyler Callihan will have an advantage today.

,Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Tyler Callihan will hold that advantage today.

,Over the past 14 days, Tyler Callihan’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.4-mph over the course of the season to 99.8-mph of late.

,Jim Jarvis will have the handedness advantage against Paul Skenes in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O’Hearn in the 85th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

,Ryan O’Hearn is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

,Michael Harris II is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Esmerlyn Valdez in the 88th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

,Esmerlyn Valdez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

,Esmerlyn Valdez will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

,When it comes to his home run talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.

,Batting from the opposite that Hurston Waldrep throws from, Brandon Lowe will have the upper hand in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O’Hearn in the 81st percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

,Hitting from the opposite that Hurston Waldrep throws from, Ryan O’Hearn will have an edge in today’s game.

,Michael Harris II will have the handedness advantage against Paul Skenes in today’s game.

,Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage today.

,As it relates to his home run talent, Austin Riley ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Austin Riley has performed at a clip of 35.2 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, placing in the 96th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Konnor Griffin in the 75th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

,Konnor Griffin has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 90.8-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 87.7-mph mark.

,The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Callihan, Esmerlyn Valdez, Konnor Griffin).

,Given that groundball batters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Hurston Waldrep (47.8% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 GB hitters in the opposition’s projected lineup.

,Hurston Waldrep’s high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (77.3% since the start of last season) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

,The Atlanta Braves have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future,PNC Park ranks as the #3 venue in baseball for BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,The Atlanta Braves have 7 batters in the projected batting order that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Paul Skenes in this matchup.

,Paul Skenes’s 96.3-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.2-mph decrease from last season’s 97.5-mph mark.

,Matt Olson has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 14% seasonal rate to 27.3% in the past week’s worth of games.

,As it relates to his strikeout talent, Paul Skenes projects as the 9th-best SP in the majors right now, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Paul Skenes has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 8.4 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.

,Checking in at the 86th percentile, Paul Skenes put up a 13.1% Swinging Strike% this year.

,Ranking in the 99th percentile, Paul Skenes has posted a 31.1% Strikeout% this year.

,Esmerlyn Valdez has been hot in recent games, putting up a a 29.6% Barrel% (a reliable standard to evaluate power) in the last two weeks.

,When assessing his overall offensive ability, Matt Olson ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

,The Barrel% of Michael Harris II has significantly improved, with an increase from 9.1% last year to 14.5% this season.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 90th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

,The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Hurston Waldrep.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Pittsburgh Pirates today has an estimated true talent wOBA of .318, which is quite a bit lower than their actual wOBA of .332 this year.

,The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 4th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Esmerlyn Valdez in the 77th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

,With a 1.66 gap between Hurston Waldrep’s 2.97 ERA and his 4.63 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league since the start of last season and ought to see worse results in the future.

,When estimating his overall offensive ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Negatives with the Pittsburgh Pirates Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 12th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks PNC Park as the 3rd-worst park in Major League Baseball for right-handed home runs.

,The league’s 6th-tallest average fence height can be found at PNC Park.

,Home runs are generally less common at parks with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest in Major League Baseball.

,Hitting from the same side that Paul Skenes throws from, Mauricio Dubon will be at a disadvantage today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 1st percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

,Jake Mangum is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

,As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the plate, Jake Mangum will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side against Hurston Waldrep today.

,Today, Jake Mangum is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39.4% rate (98th percentile).

,The #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for suppressing home runs to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.

,Drake Baldwin has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.3%) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,Drake Baldwin will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

,Drake Baldwin has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 15.6% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past 14 days.

,Mike Yastrzemski is penciled in 8th on the lineup card today.

,13% of the time that Mike Yastrzemski has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been pinch hit for.

,Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Mike Yastrzemski in today’s game.

,In the past 14 days, Drake Baldwin’s 4.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ozzie Albies in the 6th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

,As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Ozzie Albies will be at a disadvantage batting from his bad side against Paul Skenes in today’s matchup.

,Ozzie Albies will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

,Austin Riley is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

,Batting from the same side that Paul Skenes throws from, Austin Riley will not have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

,Austin Riley will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

,Austin Riley has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 9.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last 7 days.

,Endy Rodriguez is penciled in 9th in the lineup in today’s game.

,Endy Rodriguez’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased of late; his 90.2-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 85.3-mph in the past 14 days.

,Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Matt Olson today.

,Matt Olson’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last year to this one, decreasing from 46.6% to 38.2%.

,Hitting from the same side that Hurston Waldrep throws from, Konnor Griffin will not have the upper hand today.

,Extreme groundball hitters like Konnor Griffin usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Hurston Waldrep.

,Konnor Griffin’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off in recent games, decreasing from 46.1% on the season to 35% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

,Nick Gonzales is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

,Hurston Waldrep will hold the platoon advantage over Nick Gonzales in today’s game.

,Nick Gonzales’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 88.9-mph mark last season has decreased to 85.8-mph.

,Bryan Reynolds has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Bryan Reynolds’s true offensive ability to be a .342, indicating that he has been very fortunate this year given the .034 gap between that mark and his actual .376 wOBA.

,In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Bryan Reynolds ranks in just the 7th percentile with a 6.2° launch angle, which is among the lowest angles in the league.

,Dominic Smith is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

,10% of the time that Dominic Smith has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been pulled from the game early.

,Dominic Smith will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

,Typically, batters like Jake Mangum who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Hurston Waldrep.

,Jake Mangum’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 87.4-mph figure last year has fallen to 83.7-mph.

,Tyler Callihan’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 14th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Tyler Callihan is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.

,When starting against a righty hurler this year, Tyler Callihan has been pulled from the game early 25% of the time.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jim Jarvis in the 6th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

,Jim Jarvis is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jim Jarvis in today’s game.

,Today, Ryan O’Hearn is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.6% rate (91st percentile).

,In the past week’s worth of games, Ryan O’Hearn’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.1% down to 0%.

,In the past week, Ryan O’Hearn’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal figure of 92.1 mph to 84.4 mph.

,Sporting a 13.600 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Ryan O’Hearn is positioned in the 25th percentile for power.

,Mauricio Dubon’s BABIP talent is projected in the 21st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Mauricio Dubon in today’s game.

,Mauricio Dubon has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 5.1% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last two weeks.

,Michael Harris II will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

,Michael Harris II’s launch angle in recent games (3.7° in the past two weeks) is considerably lower than his 9.9° seasonal angle.

,Michael Harris II has been lucky this year, notching a .359 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .336 — a .023 deviation.

,In terms of plate discipline, Michael Harris II’s talent is quite poor, sporting a 3.96 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 12th percentile.

,When starting against a righty hurler this year, Esmerlyn Valdez has been pinch hit for 12% of the time.

,Hurston Waldrep will have the handedness advantage against Esmerlyn Valdez today.

,Esmerlyn Valdez’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off lately; his 100-mph seasonal average has fallen to 97.2-mph in the last 7 days.

,Brandon Lowe’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased recently; his 95.7-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 79.8-mph in the last week.

,Brandon Lowe’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off in recent games, going from 17.2% on the season to 0% in the past week.

,Checking in at the 23rd percentile, Brandon Lowe sits with a .267 BABIP this year.

,Over the past 14 days, Tyler Callihan’s 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 40.5%.

,Endy Rodriguez has been lucky this year, compiling a .381 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .316 — a .065 gap.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hurston Waldrep to throw 81 pitches in today’s game (4th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

,PNC Park ranks as the #22 ballpark in MLB for strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,The Pittsburgh Pirates have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Hurston Waldrep in this matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Paul Skenes as the 2nd-best pitcher in Major League Baseball right now.

,PNC Park has the 10th-deepest left field dimensions among all stadiums.

,Paul Skenes will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should improve all of his metrics in all categories.

,In his last GS, Paul Skenes was on point and allowed 1 ER.

,In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Konnor Griffin ranks in just the 8th percentile with a 6.3° launch angle, which is one of the lowest angles in MLB.

,When assessing his home run talent, Nick Gonzales ranks in the 10th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Atlanta Braves with a 19.7% underlying K%.

,When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Tyler Callihan ranks in the 18th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Dominic Smith has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 6.6% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past two weeks.

,As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jim Jarvis ranks in the 19th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Nick Gonzales’s launch angle this year (5.6°) is considerably lower than his 9.3° angle last season.

,Hurston Waldrep will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

,Mike Yastrzemski has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph dropping to 84-mph over the past 7 days.

,Based on Statcast data, Ozzie Albies grades out in the 12th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .283.

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