Braves @ Nationals Series Game 4 Matchup Details

Positives for the Atlanta Braves Game Today

When estimating his BABIP talent, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

James Wood is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

James Wood will have the handedness advantage over Hurston Waldrep in today’s game.

James Wood has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and James Wood will hold that advantage in today’s game.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, James Wood ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Drake Baldwin in the 78th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Drake Baldwin is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game.

Drake Baldwin will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brad Lord in today’s matchup.

Drake Baldwin has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

The Washington Nationals infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams playing today.

Drake Baldwin has compiled a .350 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 85th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

In terms of power, Drake Baldwin is ranked in the 76th percentile, having averaged 24.6 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year.

Daylen Lile has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (78% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Among all major league parks, Nationals Park’s RF dimensions are the 8th-shallowest.

Hitting from the opposite that Hurston Waldrep throws from, Daylen Lile will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Daylen Lile will hold that advantage today.

Daylen Lile has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 100.9-mph average over the last week to his seasonal average of 91.3-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daylen Lile in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Among all parks, Nationals Park’s left field dimensions are the 10th-shallowest.

Dylan Crews has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Dylan Crews will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Compared to his seasonal average of 9.2°, Dylan Crews has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 20.6° figure in the past two weeks.

Dylan Crews has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average this year; his .202 figure is significantly deflated relative to his .237 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

This year, Dylan Crews’s flyball exit velocity (an advanced metric to assess power) ranks in the 79th percentile at 94.7 mph.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.311) suggests that Dylan Crews has experienced some negative variance this year with his .279 actual wOBA.

It may be sensible to expect worse numbers for the Washington Nationals offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 9th-luckiest offense in the game this year.

Edwin Jimenez profiles as a Pitchers Umpire and is likely to be behind the plate today.

The #1 field in MLB for suppressing walks, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park.

The Washington Nationals have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Riley Adams, James Wood, Paul DeJong).

Due to his reverse platoon split, Hurston Waldrep will be at an advantage facing 6 bats in the projected batting order who bat from the opposite side in today’s matchup.

The maximum exit velocity of any player on the Washington Nationals has been 118 mph this year, putting them as the #6 squad in the league by this standard.

The Atlanta Braves projected offense projects as the 5th-strongest of the day in terms of overall hitting ability.

The Atlanta Braves have been the 7th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season,Riley Adams, the Nationals’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, grades out as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Luis Garcia Jr.’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Luis Garcia Jr. is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Hurston Waldrep throws from, Luis Garcia Jr. will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Luis Garcia Jr. has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Luis Garcia Jr. will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Garcia Jr. in the 77th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Matt Olson is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.

Matt Olson will have the handedness advantage against Brad Lord in today’s game.

Matt Olson has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Matt Olson has seen a big gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.1-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 93.1-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Bell in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Josh Bell is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.

As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Josh Bell will get to bat from his better side against Hurston Waldrep in today’s matchup.

Josh Bell has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Josh Bell will hold that advantage in today’s game.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Jurickson Profar ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jurickson Profar is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

Jurickson Profar pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.2% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

There has been a significant improvement in Jurickson Profar’s launch angle from last season’s 13.3° to 19.2° this season.

Jurickson Profar’s launch angle in recent games (27.6° over the last two weeks) is considerably higher than his 19.2° seasonal figure.

Paul DeJong pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Paul DeJong will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Compared to last year, Paul DeJong has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 15.3% to 20% this season.

Paul DeJong’s 11.7% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power) ranks in the 79th percentile this year.

When it comes to his home run talent, Paul DeJong ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

As it relates to his home runs, Paul DeJong has experienced some negative variance this year. His 19.3 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 25.5.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Marcell Ozuna pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Marcell Ozuna’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, going from 19.2% on the season to 28.6% in the past 7 days.

Marcell Ozuna has shown impressive plate discipline this year, checking in at the 89th percentile with a 1.48 K/BB rate.

Ozzie Albies is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.

Ozzie Albies pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Ozzie Albies has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 4.9% seasonal rate to 12.8% in the last 14 days.

Ozzie Albies has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.7-mph to 90.4-mph over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ozzie Albies in the 75th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Ronald Acuna Jr. projects as the 6th-best hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ronald Acuna Jr. is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

Ronald Acuna Jr. has made significant gains with his Barrel%, upping his 9.5% rate last season to 15.5% this year.

Ronald Acuna Jr. has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 101.1-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal figure of 96-mph.

Ha-seong Kim pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

When it comes to plate discipline, Ha-seong Kim’s ability is quite strong, posting a 1.5 K/BB rate since the start of last season while grading out in in the 94th percentile.

Riley Adams has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Riley Adams will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Riley Adams has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.2-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 91.6-mph figure.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.211) provides evidence that Riley Adams has had bad variance on his side this year with his .197 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Adams in the 77th percentile when estimating his home run skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 75th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

CJ Abrams is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Hurston Waldrep throws from, CJ Abrams will have the upper hand in today’s game.

CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.6% — 80th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and CJ Abrams will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Robert Hassell III in the 89th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Batting from the opposite that Hurston Waldrep throws from, Robert Hassell III will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Robert Hassell III will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Hitting from the opposite that Brad Lord throws from, Michael Harris II will have an advantage in today’s game.

Michael Harris II has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Despite posting a .276 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Michael Harris II has had bad variance on his side given the .047 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .323.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Michael Harris II ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Negatives with the Washington Nationals Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the worst park in the game for lefty batting average.

Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 4th-best for pitching on the slate today.

In the past week, James Wood’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the worst venue in the league for run-scoring.

Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Drake Baldwin today.

In the past week’s worth of games, Drake Baldwin’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.7% down to 0%.

Drake Baldwin’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off lately; his 94.4-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 89.8-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daylen Lile in the 13th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Daylen Lile’s true offensive skill to be a .311, suggesting that he has had some very good luck this year given the .038 deviation between that mark and his actual .349 wOBA.

Daylen Lile’s 4.3% Barrel% (a reliable standard to study power) grades out in the 14th percentile this year.

Nacho Alvarez Jr. is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Nationals Park as the worst field in the game for right-handed batting average.

Hitting from the same side that Brad Lord throws from, Nacho Alvarez Jr. has a tough challenge today.

When it comes to his home run talent, Nacho Alvarez Jr. ranks in the 11th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Dylan Crews is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.

Hurston Waldrep will have the handedness advantage over Dylan Crews in today’s matchup.

Dylan Crews’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 89.4-mph seasonal average has decreased to 85.6-mph in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hurston Waldrep to throw 85 pitches in this matchup (7th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

Playing on the road generally diminishes pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Hurston Waldrep today.

Hurston Waldrep has been lucky this year, putting up a 2.78 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.73 — a 1.95 disparity.

Hurston Waldrep has been one of the luckiest mound aces in MLB on balls in play this year with a .264 BABIP and figures to see that luck normalize going forward.

With a 0.54 discrepancy between Hurston Waldrep’s 8.34 K/9 and his 7.80 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league this year as it relates to strikeouts and ought to see worse results in the future.

Bradley Lord will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats in all categories.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Atlanta Braves with a 20.4% underlying K%.

Bradley Lord’s high usage rate of his fastball (64.7% this year) is likely dampening his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

Bradley Lord has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts this year, notching a 7.49 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.46 — a 0.04 K/9 gap.

Bradley Lord has recorded 14.4 outs per game per started this year, ranking in the 11th percentile.

Luis Garcia Jr. has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 8.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

Luis Garcia Jr. has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.8-mph dropping to 87.1-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

Matt Olson will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Matt Olson has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .277 BA is considerably higher than his .246 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Matt Olson has experienced some positive variance this year. His .369 rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .345.

Josh Bell has posted a .238 BABIP this year, ranking in the 2nd percentile.

As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the dish, Jurickson Profar will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side against Brad Lord in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jurickson Profar in today’s matchup.

Over the past week, Jurickson Profar’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.5% down to 0%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul DeJong in the 11th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Paul DeJong is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.

Hurston Waldrep will have the handedness advantage against Paul DeJong in today’s matchup.

When it comes to plate discipline, Paul DeJong’s talent is quite weak, sporting a 6.43 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 18th percentile.

Marcell Ozuna is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

Hitting from the same side that Brad Lord throws from, Marcell Ozuna will be in a tough position in today’s matchup.

Marcell Ozuna will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ozzie Albies in the 11th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the dish, Ozzie Albies will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side against Brad Lord in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ozzie Albies in today’s game.

In notching a .292 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Ozzie Albies finds himself in the 15th percentile for offensive skills.

Brad Lord will have the handedness advantage over Ronald Acuna Jr. in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Ronald Acuna Jr. today.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 14°, Ronald Acuna Jr. has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (8.6°) over the last two weeks.

Ha-seong Kim is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.

11% of the time that Ha-seong Kim has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

Batting from the same side that Brad Lord throws from, Ha-seong Kim faces a tough challenge in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ha-seong Kim in the 19th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Adams in the 13th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Riley Adams is projected to hit 8th in the lineup today.

Hitting from the same side that Hurston Waldrep throws from, Riley Adams will not have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Over the past two weeks, Riley Adams’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.5% down to 0%.

Over the past week, CJ Abrams’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.7% down to 0%.

CJ Abrams has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph dropping to 83.5-mph over the past week.

Despite posting a .330 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes CJ Abrams has been very fortunate given the .011 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .319.

Robert Hassell III is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this matchup.

Over the past 7 days, Robert Hassell III’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9% down to 0%.

As it relates to his home run ability, Robert Hassell III ranks in the 23rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Michael Harris II is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.

Michael Harris II will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Michael Harris II has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 8% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

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