Blue Jays @ Mariners Matchup Details

Positives for the Toronto Blue Jays Game Today

Nathan Lukes is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects T-Mobile Park as the 7th-best venue in the game for lefty home runs.

,T-Mobile Park has the 10th-shortest fences among all major league stadiums.

,Given Luis Castillo’s large platoon split, Nathan Lukes will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.

,Nathan Lukes has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,When it comes to his overall offensive skill, J.P. Crawford ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,J.P. Crawford is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Batting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, J.P. Crawford will have the upper hand in today’s game.

,J.P. Crawford has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kazuma Okamoto in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

,Kazuma Okamoto is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.

,The #7 venue in the league for boosting home runs to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.

,Kazuma Okamoto pulls many of his flyballs (38.1% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

,Ernie Clement pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.1% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

,Among every team playing today, the 7th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners.

,Ernie Clement has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 85.4-mph to 87.7-mph over the past week.

,Compared to his seasonal average of 16°, Ernie Clement has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 28.3° angle in the last week’s worth of games.

,When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game.

,T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-least fair ground in MLB — generally good for homers.

,Randy Arozarena will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which should improve all of his stats.

,Checking in at the 87th percentile, Randy Arozarena has posted a .363 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

,Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and J.P. Crawford will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathan Lukes in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

,As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Dominic Canzone ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Dominic Canzone is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

,Dominic Canzone will hold the platoon advantage against Dylan Cease today.

,Sean Keys will hold the platoon advantage over Luis Castillo today… and the cherry on top, Castillo has a large platoon split.

,Luis Castillo has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing 6.1 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starting pitcher.

,Projected catcher Cal Raleigh profiles as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,T-Mobile Park ranks as the #2 venue in the game for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Hitting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Colt Emerson will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

,Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Colt Emerson will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,Colt Emerson has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.2-mph to 94.9-mph in the past week.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

,Alejandro Kirk is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup.

,Alejandro Kirk has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,The switch-hitting Cal Raleigh will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Dylan Cease.

,Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.3% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Cal Raleigh will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,Despite posting a .259 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Cal Raleigh has experienced some negative variance given the .085 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .344.

,By putting up a .358 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Cal Raleigh is positioned in the 88th percentile for offensive skills.

,Because of Luis Castillo’s large platoon split, Andres Gimenez will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today’s game.

,Andres Gimenez has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

,Yohendrick Pinango will hold the platoon advantage against Luis Castillo today… and even better, Castillo has a large platoon split.

,In the past week, Yohendrick Pinango’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.8% up to 16.7%.

,Batting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Cole Young will have an edge in today’s matchup.

,Cole Young pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.4% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Cole Young will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,Cole Young has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 5.5% seasonal rate to 11.1% over the past week.

,In the past week, Colt Emerson’s 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.1%.

,When estimating his batting average talent, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the 3rd-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kazuma Okamoto in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

,In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Kazuma Okamoto’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 97.9-mph over the course of the season to 101.1-mph of late.

,Josh Naylor is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.

,Batting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Josh Naylor will have an advantage today.

,Josh Naylor pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.8% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Dylan Cease as the 11th-best SP in the majors right now.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Cease to throw 98 pitches in today’s game (most of all pitchers today), taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Alejandro Kirk (the Blue Jays’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) profiles as a good pitch framer.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects T-Mobile Park as the 2nd-worst stadium in the game for batting average.

,Cal Raleigh projects as the 6th-best home run batter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 95th percentile when estimating his home run talent.

,Luke Raley will have the handedness advantage over Dylan Cease today.

,Luke Raley pulls many of his flyballs (35.1% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences today.

,Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Luke Raley will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,When estimating his batting average skill, Julio Rodriguez is projected as the 10th-best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Julio Rodriguez is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.

,Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Julio Rodriguez will hold that advantage today.

,Vladimir Guerrero Jr. projects as the 11th-best hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Daulton Varsho is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.

,Daulton Varsho will hold the platoon advantage over Luis Castillo today… and the cherry on top, Castillo has a large platoon split.

,Daulton Varsho pulls a lot of his flyballs (39% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,When estimating his overall offensive skill, Julio Rodriguez ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Luis Castillo will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which should bolster all of his stats in all categories.

,Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Josh Naylor will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

,Luke Raley has made significant strides with his Barrel%, upping his 10.7% rate last year to 17.6% this season.

,In the last week’s worth of games, Julio Rodriguez’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.3-mph over the course of the season to 100.9-mph lately.

,Alejandro Kirk’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, increasing from 16% on the season to 23.8% over the last two weeks.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sean Keys in the 76th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

,Josh Naylor’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, rising from 42.1% on the season to 50% over the last 14 days.

,Yohendrick Pinango has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.3-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 91.1-mph average.

,Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Dominic Canzone will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,Seattle’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Daulton Varsho, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

,Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.8-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 90.1-mph EV.

,Cole Young has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 93.5-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal mark of 91.2-mph.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

,As it relates to his home run talent, Daulton Varsho ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,When assessing his overall offensive skill, Alejandro Kirk ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,When it comes to his strikeout skill, Dylan Cease projects as the 2nd-best pitcher in baseball right now, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Negatives with the Seattle Mariners Game Today

When assessing his home run talent, Nathan Lukes ranks in the 13th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,When starting against a northpaw this year, Nathan Lukes has been pinch hit for 29% of the time.

,T-Mobile Park’s altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which often leads to lower offensive output.

,As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-best pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this game.

,Nathan Lukes will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

,T-Mobile Park profiles as the #30 ballpark in the majors for lefty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,J.P. Crawford has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 7.6% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past two weeks.

,In the past two weeks’ worth of games, J.P. Crawford’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal figure of 93.1 mph to 86.7 mph.

,Given Luis Castillo’s large platoon split, Kazuma Okamoto will be at an enormous disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish in today’s game.

,Kazuma Okamoto will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

,Kazuma Okamoto has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 14.5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 9.1% in the last 7 days.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 10th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

,Ernie Clement is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today’s game.

,T-Mobile Park ranks as the #30 stadium in MLB for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Hitting from the same side that Dylan Cease throws from, Randy Arozarena encounters a tough challenge in today’s game.

,Randy Arozarena has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91.2-mph dropping to 88.6-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

,Randy Arozarena’s launch angle this year (8°) is significantly worse than his 13.4° mark last year.

,Dominic Canzone has been pinch hit for 34% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.

,Dominic Canzone’s launch angle lately (-0.2° in the last two weeks) is considerably worse than his 12° seasonal angle.

,Dominic Canzone has been lucky this year, compiling a .380 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .333 — a .047 gap.

,Sean Keys’s BABIP ability is projected in the 15th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Sean Keys is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

,Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Sean Keys in today’s matchup.

,The Toronto Blue Jays (18.7 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today.

,Colt Emerson is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card today.

,Despite posting a .323 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Colt Emerson has been lucky given the .022 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .301.

,Luis Castillo will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Alejandro Kirk in today’s matchup… and it’s a particular mismatch considering Castillo’s large platoon split.

,Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Alejandro Kirk in today’s game.

,Cal Raleigh’s BABIP ability is projected in the 2nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Cal Raleigh is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 11th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

,Andres Gimenez is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this game.

,Yohendrick Pinango is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.

,28% of the time that Yohendrick Pinango has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been pulled from the game early.

,Yohendrick Pinango will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

,Despite posting a .325 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Yohendrick Pinango has had positive variance on his side given the .032 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .293.

,Cole Young is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

,Cole Young’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased lately, going from 43.5% on the season to 34.3% over the past 14 days.

,Luis Castillo will hold the platoon advantage over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. today… and it’s an even larger mismatch considering Castillo’s large platoon split.

,Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in today’s matchup.

,Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s launch angle in recent games (1.5° over the past week) is quite a bit lower than his 7.8° seasonal angle.

,Josh Naylor’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 87.7-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 82-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

,Josh Naylor’s launch angle recently (9.8° over the past two weeks) is a significant dropoff from his 13.9° seasonal angle.

,Josh Naylor’s 90.3-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable stat to assess power) ranks in the 23rd percentile this year.

,The Seattle Mariners projected batting order ranks as the 5th-best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill.

,Among all parks, T-Mobile Park’s right field fences are the shallowest.

,The Seattle Mariners have 7 batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Dylan Cease in today’s game.

,Dylan Cease will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

,This year, Cal Raleigh’s Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 19% last year to just 11.3% this year.

,Luke Raley is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

,When starting against a northpaw this year, Luke Raley has been pulled from the game early 31% of the time.

,Because of Luis Castillo’s large platoon split, Ernie Clement will be at a tremendous disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in today’s game.

,Dylan Cease will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Julio Rodriguez in today’s matchup.

,Julio Rodriguez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off of late, falling from 14.5% on the season to 6.7% in the past 7 days.

,In his previous outing, Dylan Cease was on point and conceded 1 ER.

,Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, falling from 12.4% to 9%.

,Daulton Varsho’s BABIP skill is projected in the 7th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Daulton Varsho in today’s matchup.

,The Toronto Blue Jays have been the 9th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season,Ranking 4th-highest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season, Toronto Blue Jays batters jointly have compiled a 15.6° launch angle on their hardest-contacted balls (a reliable standard to evaluate power ability).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Naylor in the 15th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

,Cal Raleigh’s average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 90.8-mph mark last season has decreased to 87.7-mph.

,Andres Gimenez will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

,As it relates to plate discipline, Luke Raley’s talent is quite weak, putting up a 5.44 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 4th percentile.

,In the last week, J.P. Crawford’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 16.2%.

,In the last week, Daulton Varsho’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.1% down to 0%.

,Daulton Varsho’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 85.8-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 79.6-mph over the past week.

,Alejandro Kirk’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 91.5-mph figure last season has dropped off to 85.2-mph.

,Dylan Cease has utilized his slider 10% less often this season (34.4%) than he did last year (44.4%).

,Dylan Cease has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, notching a 13.82 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 11.90 — a 1.92 K/9 disparity.

,Compared to his seasonal figure of 15.2°, Cole Young has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (9.7°) in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

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