Todays 08/18/2024 Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Blue Jays at Cubs Matchup Prediction for Today

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on August 18, 2024, both teams find themselves in below-average positions in the standings, with the Cubs at 61-63 and the Blue Jays at 57-66. This Interleague matchup marks the third game of the series, and the Cubs are looking to build on their recent form, while the Blue Jays are trying to find a spark., In their last outing, the Cubs faced off against the Blue Jays, with the Cubs needing a strong performance to maintain momentum. The Cubs will send Shota Imanaga to the mound, who has been a reliable option this season with a 9-2 record and a solid 3.16 ERA. Despite ranking 56th among starting pitchers, the projections indicate that Imanaga may have had a bit of luck this season, as his xFIP of 3.72 suggests he could face some regression. He’s a high-flyball pitcher, which may play in his favor against a Blue Jays lineup that has struggled to generate power, ranking 27th in home runs this season., Bowden Francis takes the hill for the Blue Jays, carrying a less impressive 4.92 ERA. Although he has been labeled one of the worst pitchers in MLB, his xFIP of 4.25 suggests he might be due for some positive regression. However, he faces a Cubs offense that, despite ranking 19th overall, is known for its patience at the plate, which could counter Francis’s low walk rate., The Cubs enter this matchup as significant favorites with a moneyline of -180, and given their recent performance and the pitching matchup, they have a solid chance to capitalize on the Blue Jays’ struggles.

Sunday Series Game 3 Prediction Explination for Blue Jays vs Cubs Matchup

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Bowden Francis has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 53.6% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile., Bowden Francis – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135), The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Daulton Varsho can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game., Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150), Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 20.1% underlying K%., Shota Imanaga’s 2442-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 85th percentile out of all starting pitchers., Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125), Typically, hitters like Cody Bellinger who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Bowden Francis., Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165), According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in MLB., Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline, Michael Busch has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games at home (+18.50 Units / 264% ROI), Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+420/-660)

Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be., Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge., THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher., Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs., This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering., Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.