Athletics @ Red Sox Series Game 2 Matchup Details

Positives for the Athletics Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 76th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

Fenway Park profiles as the #4 park in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Ceddanne Rafaela hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage in today’s game.

When it comes to his home runs, Ceddanne Rafaela has experienced some negative variance this year. His 17.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 22.0.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB batting average.

Ceddanne Rafaela has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .298 figure is a good deal lower than his .319 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Darell Hernaiz hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.7% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

Darell Hernaiz’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, going from 14% on the season to 30.8% in the past week’s worth of games.

Sporting a .265 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Darell Hernaiz grades out in the 78th percentile.

When it comes to plate discipline, Darell Hernaiz’s talent is quite strong, posting a 0.95 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 99th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Darell Hernaiz in the 83rd percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Masataka Yoshida is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park’s right field dimensions are the shallowest.

Batting from the opposite that Mason Barnett throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have an edge today.

Masataka Yoshida will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which should improve all of his stats.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.313) may lead us to conclude that Masataka Yoshida has had some very poor luck this year with his .272 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 89th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best venue in baseball for LHB batting average.

Projected catcher Shea Langeliers projects as a weak pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 2nd-best park in MLB for batting average.

Fenway Park has the shallowest left field fences in Major League Baseball.

Playing on the road typically lowers pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Mason Barnett in today’s matchup.

In his last GS, Mason Barnett gave up a staggering 5 earned runs.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nate Eaton, Carlos Narvaez, Trevor Story).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Wilson as the 15th-best batter in the league when it comes to his batting average talent.

Jacob Wilson is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

By putting up a 1.44 K/BB rate this year, Jacob Wilson has shown impressive plate discipline, checking in at the 91st percentile.

In notching a .351 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Jacob Wilson is ranked in the 81st percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Nicholas Kurtz ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Nicholas Kurtz is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Nicholas Kurtz will have an advantage today.

Nicholas Kurtz has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Nicholas Kurtz as the majors’s 8th-best home run batter.

Nicholas Kurtz has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 18.2% seasonal rate to 25.9% in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 80th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

Trevor Story is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.

Trevor Story has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

Trevor Story will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Compared to his seasonal average of 14.9°, Trevor Story has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 18.9° figure in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 79th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Alex Bregman is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

Alex Bregman pulls many of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Alex Bregman will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Alex Bregman has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.4-mph average to last year’s 90.9-mph mark.

Nathaniel Lowe is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Nathaniel Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Mason Barnett in today’s game.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s shallowest LF fences today.

Nathaniel Lowe will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Nathaniel Lowe’s launch angle in recent games (23.3° in the past 7 days) is significantly higher than his 10.3° seasonal mark.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Brent Rooker ranks as the 14th-best hitter in Major League Baseball.

Brent Rooker is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.

Brent Rooker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.6% — 80th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Brent Rooker has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 13.7% seasonal rate to 23.5% in the past 7 days.

Brent Rooker has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph to 93.5-mph in the last week.

Lucas Giolito has averaged 95.1 adjusted pitches per GS this year, ranking in the 91st percentile.

Home field advantage generally boosts pitcher metrics across the board, and Lucas Giolito will hold that advantage today.

Lucas Giolito was on point in his previous game started and notched 7 strikeouts.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 96th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Jarren Duran is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.

Batting from the opposite that Mason Barnett throws from, Jarren Duran will have an edge today.

Jarren Duran has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s shallowest LF fences today.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Jarren Duran ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Jarren Duran will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shea Langeliers in the 96th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

Shea Langeliers is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.

Shea Langeliers pulls a lot of his flyballs (36% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Shea Langeliers has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 95.9-mph in the last 14 days.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Shea Langeliers ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Checking in at the 86th percentile, Shea Langeliers has put up a .356 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

Batting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, JJ Bleday will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

JJ Bleday hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Power-wise, JJ Bleday is ranked in the 78th percentile, having paced 25.7 HRs per 600 plate appearances this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects JJ Bleday in the 84th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zack Gelof in the 80th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Zack Gelof hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

In the past two weeks, Zack Gelof’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 97-mph over the course of the season to 100.8-mph of late.

Zack Gelof’s launch angle of late (41° over the last week) is quite a bit higher than his 14.2° seasonal angle.

As it relates to his home run talent, Zack Gelof ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Last year, Zack Gelof had an average launch angle of 17.1° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 22.8°.

Carlos Narvaez has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Carlos Narvaez will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Carlos Narvaez’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better of late, increasing from 43.2% on the season to 60.7% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Carlos Cortes will hold the platoon advantage over Lucas Giolito in today’s game.

Carlos Cortes hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lawrence Butler in the 83rd percentile when assessing his home run ability.

Lawrence Butler is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.

Lawrence Butler will have the handedness advantage against Lucas Giolito today.

Lawrence Butler has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Lawrence Butler has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 103.5-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal average of 94-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lawrence Butler in the 77th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Negatives with the Boston Red Sox Game Today

Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card today.

Fenway Park has the 2nd-highest average fence height in the majors.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 2nd-most favorable for pitching on the slate.

Mason Barnett will have the handedness advantage against Ceddanne Rafaela in today’s matchup.

Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the Athletics.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Darell Hernaiz in the 4th percentile when estimating his home run talent.

Darell Hernaiz is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Lucas Giolito will have the handedness advantage over Darell Hernaiz in today’s matchup.

Out of every team today, the best infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 25th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Masataka Yoshida has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 6.2% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

Masataka Yoshida’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, going from 15.5% to 6.9%.

Sacramento’s #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Masataka Yoshida, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Boston Red Sox today has an estimated true talent wOBA of .312, which is a good deal worse than their actual wOBA of .324 this year.

It may be smart to expect negative regression for the Boston Red Sox offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 6th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mason Barnett to throw 84 pitches today (5th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

The #2 field in MLB for suppressing strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.

In his last outing, Mason Barnett struggled when it came to striking batters out and was only able to tally 1 Ks.

Batting from the same side that Lucas Giolito throws from, Jacob Wilson encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Jacob Wilson will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Wilson in the 3rd percentile when estimating his home run talent.

Nicholas Kurtz will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Nicholas Kurtz has been lucky this year, notching a .426 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .355 — a .071 discrepancy.

Mason Barnett will have the handedness advantage over Trevor Story in today’s game.

Over the last 7 days, Trevor Story’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.9% down to 0%.

Hitting from the same side that Mason Barnett throws from, Alex Bregman will be at a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

Alex Bregman has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .360 rate is significantly inflated relative to his .320 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Nathaniel Lowe has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.3% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past 7 days.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (12.6) implies that Nathaniel Lowe has been very fortunate this year with his 19.1 actual HR/600.

With a .293 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Nathaniel Lowe is positioned in the 17th percentile for offensive skills.

Lucas Giolito will have the handedness advantage over Brent Rooker in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Brent Rooker in today’s matchup.

Lucas Giolito’s 2233-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 21st percentile out of all starting pitchers.

In the last two weeks, Jarren Duran’s 2.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.6%.

Jarren Duran and his 5.5° launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls rank in 7th percentile, among the lowest in the league this year.

Batting from the same side that Lucas Giolito throws from, Shea Langeliers encounters a tough challenge in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Shea Langeliers today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects JJ Bleday in the 8th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

JJ Bleday is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.

Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for JJ Bleday in today’s game.

Zack Gelof is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this matchup.

Lucas Giolito will hold the platoon advantage against Zack Gelof in today’s game.

Carlos Narvaez is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.

Mason Barnett will have the handedness advantage against Carlos Narvaez today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Cortes in the 13th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

Carlos Cortes is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Carlos Cortes in today’s game.

Lawrence Butler will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

In the past 14 days, Lawrence Butler’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (5.6°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 10.6°.

In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Lawrence Butler ranks in just the 14th percentile with a 9° launch angle, which is one of the lowest angles in MLB.

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