Astros @ Orioles Matchup Details

Positives for the Houston Astros Game Today

Luis Vazquez is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #5 ballpark in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Luis Vazquez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Luis Vazquez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #6 park in baseball for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The #9 park in the game for boosting base hits to RHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 89th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

Colton Cowser is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

Colton Cowser will have the handedness advantage over Jason Alexander in today’s game.

Colton Cowser has strong power (89th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (29.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jason Alexander is a pitch-to-contact type (11th percentile K%) — great news for Cowser.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #6 ballpark in baseball for lefty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 88th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

The #9 venue in baseball for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Colton Cowser will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Coby Mayo in the 75th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

Coby Mayo has a ton of pop (75th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (28.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jason Alexander is a pitch-to-contact type (18th percentile K%) — great news for Mayo.

Coby Mayo will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Compared to his seasonal average of 20.2°, Coby Mayo has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 25.5° mark in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Coby Mayo has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .204 mark is a fair amount lower than his .232 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Coby Mayo’s 20.2° launch angle (an advanced stat to evaluate a batter’s ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the steepest in the league: 87th percentile.

The shallowest RF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Dylan Beavers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jason Alexander in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Dylan Beavers will hold that advantage today.

Dylan Beavers has been zeroed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits in recent games, angling balls between -4° and 26° 62.5% of the time in the last week.

In the last 7 days, Dylan Beavers has posted a 20° launch angle, lifting the ball well and indicating strong home run potential.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 88th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

Jackson Holliday is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Jason Alexander throws from, Jackson Holliday will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jackson Holliday will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

In the last 14 days, Jackson Holliday’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.4-mph over the course of the season to 96.9-mph recently.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cam Smith as the 10th-best hitter in the game as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Cam Smith has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s shallowest RF fences today.

Cam Smith has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .303 figure is a fair amount lower than his .326 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Cam Smith has compiled a .342 BABIP this year, checking in at the 93rd percentile.

It may be best to expect positive regression for the Houston Astros offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 6th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 3rd-best field in the majors for home runs.

The Houston Astros have done a favorable job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 15.2° mark is among the highest in the league this year (#7 overall).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

Christian Walker is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

Compared to his seasonal average of 16.8°, Christian Walker has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 49.7° figure in the past week.

Christian Walker has been unlucky this year, putting up a .303 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .330 — a .027 difference.

Ryan Mountcastle’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ryan Mountcastle is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

Ryan Mountcastle has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Ryan Mountcastle will hold that advantage in today’s game.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Ryan Mountcastle ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Jose Altuve is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.

Jose Altuve has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 92.8-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal mark of 89.7-mph.

Jose Altuve’s launch angle this year (17.7°) is a considerable increase over his 14° figure last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 86th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Carlos Correa is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.

In the last week, Carlos Correa’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.1-mph over the course of the season to 97.8-mph lately.

Carlos Correa’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, increasing from 42.9% on the season to 54.5% over the last two weeks.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Carlos Correa ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

In terms of his home runs, Carlos Correa has been unlucky this year. His 12.5 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 16.2.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 81st percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

Mauricio Dubon has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Compared to last season, Mauricio Dubon has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 12.1% to 19.4% this season.

In terms of plate discipline, Mauricio Dubon’s talent is quite strong, putting up a 1.77 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 79th percentile.

Dylan Carlson will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Dylan Carlson’s launch angle this year (18.5°) is considerably better than his 15.5° mark last season.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Dylan Carlson has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 34.5° compared to his seasonal mark of 21.8°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Jesus Sanchez is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Jesus Sanchez will have the handedness advantage against Brandon Young in today’s matchup.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.337) suggests that Jesus Sanchez has been unlucky this year with his .304 actual wOBA.

Jesus Sanchez has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 15.1 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is significantly deflated relative to his 25.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Jeremy Pena is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.

Jeremy Pena has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 7.7% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the last 7 days.

With a .374 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Jeremy Pena is positioned in the 94th percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Jeremy Pena ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-most strikeout-prone lineup today is the Baltimore Orioles with a 24.7% underlying K%.

The Baltimore Orioles have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games,Gunnar Henderson projects as the 17th-best batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Gunnar Henderson is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Jason Alexander throws from, Gunnar Henderson will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Gunnar Henderson hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

Yainer Diaz hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

Despite posting a .297 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Yainer Diaz has suffered from bad luck given the .030 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .327.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Yainer Diaz ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Negatives with the Baltimore Orioles Game Today

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Luis Vazquez ranks in the 8th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 7th-best for hitting of all games on the slate today.

The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 9.9-mph in this game, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hurlers.

Jason Alexander will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luis Vazquez in today’s matchup.

Colton Cowser has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

In the last week’s worth of games, Colton Cowser’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.3% down to 0%.

Last season, Colton Cowser had a launch angle of 17.7° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this year he experienced a significant decline to just 12.9°.

Coby Mayo is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.

The 3rd-deepest left field fences in Major League Baseball are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Jason Alexander will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Coby Mayo in today’s matchup.

Dylan Beavers is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

Dylan Beavers has been cold in recent games, posting a 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) over the last 7 days.

In the last week’s worth of games, Dylan Beavers has been exhibiting poor exit velocity numbers, with an average of only 86.5-mph on his flyballs.

In today’s game, Jackson Holliday is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37% rate (93rd percentile).

Cam Smith is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in today’s game.

Hitting from the same side that Brandon Young throws from, Cam Smith meets a tough challenge in today’s game.

Cam Smith will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher stats in all categories, and Brandon Young will hold that advantage today.

Considering the 1.24 gap between Brandon Young’s 5.68 ERA and his 4.44 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the game this year and figures to perform better going forward.

Brandon Young has been one of the unluckiest hurlers in the league on balls in play this year with a .320 BABIP and figures to see that luck normalize going forward.

Brandon Young will have the handedness advantage over Christian Walker today.

Christian Walker pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 79th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Christian Walker will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Christian Walker’s BABIP skill is projected in the 13th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jason Alexander will have the handedness advantage over Ryan Mountcastle in today’s game.

Ryan Mountcastle has compiled a .288 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 16th percentile.

As it relates to plate discipline, Ryan Mountcastle’s talent is quite poor, posting a 5.65 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 4th percentile.

Power-wise, Ryan Mountcastle finds himself in the 14th percentile, having paced 9.7 homers per 600 plate appearances this year.

Brandon Young will have the handedness advantage against Jose Altuve in today’s matchup.

In today’s game, Jose Altuve is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.2% rate (99th percentile).

Jose Altuve will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Hitting from the same side that Brandon Young throws from, Carlos Correa faces a tough challenge today.

Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Carlos Correa in today’s game.

Mauricio Dubon is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this game.

Hitting from the same side that Brandon Young throws from, Mauricio Dubon will have a tough challenge in today’s game.

Mauricio Dubon will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

When it comes to his home run talent, Mauricio Dubon ranks in the 6th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Dylan Carlson is penciled in 8th in the batting order in today’s game.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the dish, Dylan Carlson will bat from his weak side against Jason Alexander in today’s matchup.

Dylan Carlson has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.1-mph dropping to 84.4-mph over the past 14 days.

When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Jesus Sanchez has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 14% of the time.

In today’s game, Jesus Sanchez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.8% rate (89th percentile).

Jesus Sanchez will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Hitting from the same side that Brandon Young throws from, Jeremy Pena meets a tough challenge in today’s game.

Jeremy Pena pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (32.9% — 75th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jeremy Pena today.

When assessing his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Jason Alexander in the 10th percentile among all SPs in the league.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Jason Alexander is projected to throw 84 pitches in today’s matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 5th-least of the day.

Yainer Diaz, the Astros’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, profiles as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The Baltimore Orioles have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Jason Alexander in today’s game.

Jason Alexander will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

In his last outing, Jason Alexander was firing on all cylinders and gave up 2 ER.

Gunnar Henderson’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, going from 14.1% to 11.1%.

Yainer Diaz is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today.

Brandon Young will hold the platoon advantage against Yainer Diaz in today’s game.

Yainer Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

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