More soccer is on tap for Thursday as the UEFA Europa League gets down to the nitty-gritty with quarterfinal second legs to determine the entries for the semifinals on May 2 & 9. Featured forecasts for Thursday Europa League are below…
AC Milan (+145) at Roma (+190); Draw +290; Total 2.5u -115… All Serie A here as Italian sides have featured much better in the Europa League than the Champs League this term. Roma, which has steadied under former captain Daniele DeRossi since the midstream dismissal of Jose Mourinho, holds a tenuous 1-0 advantage after the first leg at the San Siro. That was part of a four-match run of clean sheet for De Rossi’s troops, broken only by a 1-1 draw vs Udinese last week. Last Thursday’s win in Milan was the first for Roma over the Rossoneri since 2019 and featured more top work in goal from Serbian Mile Slivar.
Still, Roma walks a fine line, and has had to deal with inconsistencies from frontliner Romelu Lukaku (who scored his first goal in more than a month in the Udinese draw), with the Argentine Paolo Dybala, whose name is resurfacing in transfer talks for the summer, more likely to provide whatever scoring Roma can muster. Series history and the narrow margin to make up suggest Milan is hardly out of this tie, and Stefano Piloi was adamant that his troops were too passive in the home leg. Goals have come more freely in the past month for Milan, which has scored three times on four different occasions in tis last six, and displayed the fighting spirit that Pioli seeks in the 3-3 draw at Sassuolo on the weekend, twice rallying from two-goal deficits.
With goals in four of his last five appearances in all competitions, livewire Rafa Leao appears in top form, and the cultured Olivier Geroud starred in the earlier 3-1 Serie A win over Roma on January 14 at the San Siro. French number one keeper Mike Maignan is also a decent bet to keep a clean sheet and would expect a second leg recovery from Milan. PLAY AC MILAN ON MONEY LINE
Liverpool (-150) at Atalanta (+340); Draw +355; Total 3.5u -120… It has fallen apart for Liverpool in the last week, the Europa League challenge now in dire straits after Atalanta’s stunning 3-0 romp at Anfiield last Thursday, followed up by a desultory EPL effort at home vs. Crystal Palace that likely deals a death blow to any Prem title hopes.
All not how it was supposed to go in the farewell tour of Jurgen Klopp, as attention now in Liverpool more about the successor on the touchline. Klopp’s aggressive strategies have backfired at the worst possible time; playing on the front foot, the Reds also tend to leave themselves more exposed at the back than would say a Man City, or even Arsenal. That works when your own scorers are firing goals into the net, not so much if they’re not. Foes are also pushing the ball into the penalty area more often, and the Bergamo side, in particular, punished Klopp’s tactics at Anfield.
With Liverpool more likely than ever to take chances while staring at a 3-goal deficit, it also means Allison is going to have to be at his very best in goal as Atalanta very likely creates more good chances going the other way. The Europa has been a highlight this term for vet manager Gian Piero Gasperini’s troops, who came back at home from an aggregate deficit to take out Sporting Lisbon in the preceding round, and now feature perhaps the hottest goal-scorer in this competition, Gianluca Scamacca, who netted twice in the stunner at Anfield and followed up with a goal and an assist on Monday vs. Verona.
For Atalanta, the Europa League also represents the best chance to qualify for the Champions League next fall and given the clinical way Gasperini’s side dealt with Liverpool last week, we hardly expect Atalanta to cough up this lead, though the Reds should create enough chances for Mo Salah and friends to make things a bit interesting. PLAY LIVERPOOL-ATALANTA OVER
Bayer Leverkusen (-115) at West Ham United (+280); Draw +285; Total 3u -115… Not even the Michael Ballack-led side 22 years ago that made it all of the way to the Champs League finale against Real Madrid at Glasgow has a Bayer Leverkusen side achieved what Xabi Alonso has been able to accomplish with this season’s edition, which has already sewn up domestic honors for the first time and has yet to lose in the Bundesliga during a magical campaign.
In fact, it’s been 43 matches and 11 months since Leverkusen last tasted defeat, on the final day of last season vs. Vfl Bochum, and now sit on the verge of a treble, heavy favorites over Kaiseralautern in the upcoming German Cup final and now the top pick here in the Europa. Shrewd moves in the transfer market have offloaded higher-priced stars like Kai Havertz and replaced them with quality in numbers, such as Czech forward Patrik Schick and ex-Cologne under-19 start Florian Wirtz, whose hat trick on Sunday vs. Werder Bremen helped sew up the Bundesliga crown. As well as veteran stability in the form of ex-Arsenal Swiss midfielder Granit Xhaka, who has found a new lease on life in Germany, is another plus.
This sort of exciting talent and depth has been perfectly suited to both domestic and European competition, as West Ham found out when getting outclassed 2-0 in the first leg at BayArena. The Hammers might take solace in holding out until the 83rd minute before Leverkusen would break thru, but a subsequent 2-0 home loss to local rival Fulham suggests David Moyes has a lot of work to do for the return leg.
In West Ham’s defense, perhaps the fact the Hammers catch Leverkusen a few days after their wild Bundesliga title celebrations will prove a benefit, and there is a chance that West Ham gets key forward Jarrod Brown back for the second leg after he missed last Thursday at BayArena due to a hip injury. Moyes, however, will be without midfielder Lucas Paqueta, on suspension, and as the Hammers do not appear in top form at the moment, banking on Leverkusen still being in celebration mode from the weekend is a pretty flimsy argument. Not a bad win price here on a team that hasn’t lost in eleven months! PLAY BAYER LEVERKUSEN ON MONEY LINE