Updated on Sunday, 1/28/24, at 12:40 p.m. Eastern.
As of early Sunday afternoon, most betting shops had Baltimore (14-4 straight up, 12-6 against the spread) installed as a 4.5-point home favorite vs. Kansas City in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game at 3:00 p.m. Eastern. Circa had moved the Ravens to -5.
The total was 44 or 44.5 points, while the Chiefs were +170 to +205 (Circa) on the money line.
Meanwhile, most spots had San Francisco (13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS) listed as a seven-point home favorite (at -120 juice) or a 7.5-point ‘chalk’ vs. Detroit in the NFC Championship Game at 6:30 p.m. ET. The total was 52.5 points, while the Lions were +290 to +310 on the money line.
FanDuel has the 49ers as +135 ‘chalk’ to win Super Bowl LVIII. The next-shortest odds belong to the Ravens (+170), Chiefs (+440) and Lions (+850).
FanDuel already has odds up to win Super Bowl LVIII Most Valuable Player honors, too. Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson is the +200 favorite, followed by San Francisco QB Brock Purdy (+280), Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes (+500), San Francisco RB Christian McCaffrey (+650) and Detroit QB Jared Goff (+1200 or 12/1).
Baltimore is 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in 10 home games, while Kansas City (13-6 SU, 11-8 ATS) is 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS in nine road assignments. The Ravens are off a 34-10 home win over Houston as 10-point home ‘chalk’ last Saturday.
They’ve had an extra day of rest and preparation for the Chiefs, who captured a 27-24 win at Buffalo last Sunday night. Andy Reid’s team won outright as 2.5-point road underdogs, while the 51 combined points elevated ‘over’ the 45.5-point total.
Kansas City will bring a four-game winning streak both SU and ATS into Baltimore. The Chiefs beat Miami 26-7 in the Wild Card Round as 4.5-point home favorites on Jan. 13.
Mahomes completed 17-of-23 passes for 215 yards and two touchdowns without an interception at Buffalo. Travis Kelce had five catches for 75 yards and two TDs, while Isiah Pacheco had 97 rushing yards and one TD on 15 attempts.
Kansas City WRs Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore both missed the win at Buffalo with injuries. In fact, Toney has missed five straight games.
Moore, Toney, All-Pro offensive guard Joe Thuney and starting DT Derric Nnadi have been ruled ‘out’ at Baltimore. In fact, if the Chiefs win today, Thuney might not even be able to play in the Super Bowl.
Kansas City starting linebacker Willie Gay sounds ‘doubtful’ today if you read this tweet from James Palmer at 1:20 p.m. ET.
Baltimore is getting two key players back today in TE Mark Andrews. Andrews, who had 45 catches for 544 yards and six TDs in 10 regular-season games, has been out with an ankle injury since mid-November.
Humphrey will return for the first time since suffering a calf injury in Week 17. In 10 regular-season games this year, Humphrey recorded 26 tackles, five passes broken up, one tackle for loss, one interception and one QB hit.
The Chiefs have only been underdogs with Mahomes starting at QB 11 times in his career during both the regular season and playoffs. They’ve compiled a 9-1-1 ATS record with eight outright wins in those situations.
Jackson and Mahomes have faced each other four times in their respective careers. Kansas City is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in those four meetings, while the ‘over’ has hit at a 3-1 clip.
The Chiefs won 27-24 in overtime in 2018, and they won again by a 33-28 count as 4.5-point home ‘chalk’ in 2019. In 2020, Reid’s squad won 34-20 at Baltimore as a 3.5-point road underdog.
When the Chiefs came to town in 2021, the Ravens edged them 36-35 as 3.5-point home underdogs.
The four head-to-head meetings between Jackson and Mahomes have produced combined scores of 71, 54, 61 and 51 points.
Weather.com’s Sunday forecast in Baltimore has been changing on a daily basis all week. It is currently calling for a 17 percent chance of rain in the two hours leading up to kickoff. The chances of rain increase to 24 percent at 4:00 p.m. and 40 percent by 5:00 p.m.
There’s a 70 percent chance of rain by 6:00 p.m., so we’re likely going to see some rain in the fourth quarter. However, winds were expected to be 10-15 miles per hour earlier in the week, but the current forecast is predicting just 8-10 mph winds throughout the game.
The lowest temperature after dark is expected to be 45 degrees.
Detroit (14-5 straight up, 13-6 against the spread) is 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS in its nine road assignments, while San Francisco is 6-3 SU and 3-6 ATS in nine home games. The Lions have been underdogs three times, going 2-1 ATS with one outright win.
They won 21-20 at Kansas City as 4.5-point ‘dogs, lost 20-19 at Dallas in controversial fashion as 4.5-point ‘dogs and got thumped 38-6 at Baltimore.
Dan Campbell’s squad has won three straight games and is 5-1 both SU and ATS in its last six. The lone setback in this stretch was the aforementioned defeat to the Cowboys.
Detroit is off of Sunday’s 31-23 win as a six-point home favorite vs. Tampa Bay. The Lions had a 31-17 lead until the Buccaneers cut into the deficit on a 16-yard TD pass from Baker Mayfield to Mike Evans.
Todd Bowles elected to go for two and the failed conversion attempt hooked up Detroit backers. The 54 combined points went ‘over’ the 49.5-point tally on Evans’ TD catch with 4:37 remaining.
Goff completed 30-of-43 passes for 287 yards and two TDs without an interception. Detroit rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs had 74 rushing yards on nine attempts, including a 31-yard TD scamper to put the Lions ahead for good with 13:13 remaining.
Goff’s nine-yard TD pass to Amon-Ra St. Brown with 6:22 left extended the lead to 31-17. St. Brown had eight receptions for 77 yards, while rookie TE Sam LaPorta had nine catches for 65 yards. Gibbs added four receptions for 40 yards, while Josh Reynolds had the other TD catch from nine yards out early in the second quarter.
Goff has five TD passes without an interception in the Lions’ last three games.
Detroit starting guard Jonah Jackson is ‘out’ at San Francisco due to a knee injury sustained vs. Tampa Bay. WR Kalif Raymond has missed back-to-back games with a knee injury suffered in the regular-season finale. Raymond, who has 35 catches for 489 yards and one TD, was listed as ‘questionable’ as of Wednesday.
Raymond averages 11.0 yards on 29 punt returns this year, including a long of 42 yards. He’s also contributed 75 rushing yards on just seven carries for a 10.7 yards-per-carry average.
San Francisco had to rally at crunch time Saturday night to capture a 24-21 win over Green Bay and advance to the NFC Championship Game. McCaffrey’s six-yard TD run with 1:07 remaining gave the 49ers the lead for good.
They put the game on ice when Dre Greenlaw intercepted Jordan Love for the second time in the game.
McCaffrey had 98 rushing yards and two TDs on 17 carries vs. the Packers, who covered the spread as 10-point road underdogs but blew several chances to put the game away. The Stanford product’s 39-yard TD run put the 49ers ahead 14-13 midway through the third quarter.
The biggest injury for San Francisco this week has been the shoulder issue for WR Deebo Samuel, but he’s been cleared to play “with no limitations” after leaving last week’s win over Green Bay. The 49ers went 0-2 in the two regular-season games Samuel missed due to an injury.
In 15 games this year, Samuel has 60 receptions for 892 yards and seven TDs. He also has 225 rushing yards and five TDs on 37 rushing attempts for a 6.1 YPC average.
These teams last met in Detroit on Sept. 12 of 2021, with the 49ers winning a 41-33 decision. However, the Lions took the cash as 9.5-point home underdogs, and the 74 combined points soared ‘over’ the 46-point total.
Goff connected on 38-of-57 throws for 338 yards and three TDs compared to one interception in the losing effort.
Weather.com’s forecast for Santa Cruz on Sunday night is predicting temperatures in the mid-50s, with light winds and only a five percent chance of rain.