Georgia (14-5 straight up, 9-9-1 against the spread) will be looking to end an eight-game losing streak in this rivalry when it faces Florida at noon Eastern on Saturday in Gainesville.
As of late Friday afternoon, the only books that had released lines were FanDuel and DraftKings. Both shops had Florida (13-6 SU, 8-10 ATS) installed as a 7.5-point home favorite vs. UGA. DraftKings had the total at 162 points, while FanDuel had it at 161.5. The Bulldogs were +275 on the money line.
Mike White brings his current team into his old stomping grounds with a little juice. Indeed, Georgia is a bubble squad in Year 2 of White’s tenure.
Like I said when UGA hired him, White is a lot better than coach than most UF fans would ever give him credit for. He was never going to please a fan base that was beyond spoiled rotten during Billy Donovan’s incredible 17-year tenure.
After the disaster that was Tom Crean’s reign in Athens, attendance at home games has increased and optimism is high for the Bulldogs on the hardwood. They can take a big step toward getting closer to the program’s first NCAA Tournament invite since 2015 with a win Saturday at UF.
When I was making my numbers – that you can see here – for Saturday’s SEC sides on Thursday, I went with Florida to be a six-point home favorite. Therefore, my lean is to Georgia at +7.5.
UGA is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in four road assignments this year, while Florida (13-6 SU, 8-10-1 ATS) is 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS at home.
The Bulldogs have won at FSU (68-66), at Missouri (75-68) and at South Carolina (74-69), and they took their lone road defeat at Kentucky (105-96) last Saturday night. However, White’s team picked up a nice backdoor cover as a 13.5-point underdog at Rupp Arena.
Georgia has won 12 of its last 14 games, going 5-1 ATS in its last six, after bouncing back from the loss at UK to win a 68-66 decision Wednesday vs. LSU. The Tigers ended UGA’s 5-0 ATS run by taking the money as 4.5-point road underdogs.
UGA improved to 4-2 in SEC play, with its only other conference loss coming at home vs. Tennessee on Jan. 13. White’s team actually led the Volunteers by 11 with seven minutes remaining, only to get completely outplayed at crunch time.
Florida has won back-to-back games and three of its last four both SU and ATS. The Gators are now 3-3 in SEC action after capturing a 79-70 win over Mississippi St. as 3.5-point home ‘chalk’ on Wednesday night. The 149 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 150.5-point total.
Will Richard paced the winners with 23 points, nine rebounds, two steals and two blocked shots, while Zyon Pullen finished with 15 points, five boards, one blocked shot and three assists without a turnover. Walter Clayton added 15 points and five boards.
Clayton, the transfer from Iona who led the Gaels to the 2023 NCAA Tournament, is leading the Gators in scoring with his 15.8 points-per-game average. He’s also averaging 3.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.2 steals per game.
The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight UF games, but the ‘over’ maintains an 11-7-1 overall record. The ‘over’ is 3-1 for UGA in its last four outings, but the ‘under’ is 10-9 overall for the Bulldogs.
Florida has won nine of the last 10 games in this rivalry, but UGA is 3-2 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings.
In Joe Lunardi’s latest edition of ‘Bracketology’ that was updated this morning on ESPN.com, Florida was a part of his ‘Next Four Out.’ Georgia was part of that next ‘Next Four Out’ prior to losing at Kentucky last weekend.
Another bracketologist, who has an X account (that’s an excellent follow for college hoops intel) with the handle, @madeformarch, has UGA in his ‘Next Four Out’ and doesn’t have the Gators.
Florida is #35 at KenPom, while UGA is #70. The Gators are ranked #18 in offensive efficiency and #81 in defensive efficiency. They are #23 in pace and #3 in offensive rebounding percentage.
KenPom has UGA ranked #93 in offensive efficiency and #49 in defensive efficiency. The Bulldogs have faced nine opponents in KenPom’s Top-81, going 4-5 in those games. Their best home wins are over #81 LSU and #41 Wake Forest, and they have road wins at #76 FSU and #52 South Carolina.
Todd Golden’s squad is 5-6 in 11 games against foes ranked inside of KenPom’s Top 84. UF owns home wins over #76 FSU and #37 Mississippi St., and the Gators collected neutral-court victories over #84 Richmond, #80 Michigan and #68 Pittsburgh.
Florida is #43 in the NET rankings with a 0-5 record against Quad-1 opponents and a 5-1 record versus Quad-2 foes. The Gators are 8-0 in games against Quad-3 and Quad-4 competition.
Georgia is #78 in the NET rankings, going 1-3 vs Quad-1 opponents and 3-2 versus Quad-2 foes. The Bulldogs are 10-0 against Quad-3 and Quad-4 competition.
For more of my college hoops opinions for Saturday, Jay Greeson, a columnist at the Chattanooga Times Free Press, and I previewed all seven of Saturday’s SEC games on our podcast, ‘Bets & Ballgames with Edwards & Greeson’, that you can view here on Southeastern 14’s YouTube channel.
You can also look for my live bets and/or halftime suggestions at my Twitter account here. Best of luck with all your picks, folks!