I’m going to have a hard time matching my production of 5.4 units of profit with my Super Bowl LIX predictions from last year, but I’ll give it a shot here for Super Bowl LX.
As of Friday morning, most books had Seattle (16-3 straight up, 14-5 against the spread) listed as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 45.5. Circa had the ‘over/under’ at 45 points, while most spots had the Patriots with money-line odds in the +188 to +200 neighborhood.
A few shops like the Westgate SuperBook, South Point and Hard Rock had the Seahawks at -5.
New England (17-3 SU, 13-7 ATS) is on a six-game winning streak, going 5-1 ATS in that span with the lone non-cover coming in its 10-7 win at Denver as a 3.5-point road favorite in the AFC Championship Game. The Patriots had won their four previous games by double-digit margins, including postseason home wins over the Chargers (16-3) and Texans (28-16).
Seattle is on a nine-game winning streak and hasn’t tasted defeat since dropping a 21-19 decision against the Rams as a three-point road underdog on Nov. 16. The Seahawks have ripped off four consecutive spread covers, including postseason home victories over the 49ers (41-6) and Rams (31-27).
Mike Vrabel’s squad has been an underdog six times this year, going 4-2 both SU and ATS. Seattle has been a single-digit favorite 13 times, compiling a 12-1 SU record and an 11-2 ATS mark.
The ‘over’ has hit in back-to-back games for Seattle to improve to 11-8 overall. The Seahawks have had at least 46 combined points in all 11 of their games that have gone ‘over.’ They were third in the NFL in scoring with their 28.4 points-per-game average in 17 regular-season games.
With 72 points in a pair of playoff games, Seattle is now scoring at a 29.2 PPG clip.
The ‘over’ is on 6-2 and 10-4 runs for New England in its last eight and 14 games, respectively, to improve to 12-8 overall. The Patriots were second in the NFL in scoring with their 28.8 PPG average during the regular season.
Pick #1: Weather isn’t expected to be a factor Sunday night at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA. With that in mind, I’m going to risk 2.75 units to win 2.5 units on ‘over’ 45 points. If your number is 45.5 points, I’d buy the half-point to 45 by paying -120 juice. I consider 45 a key number for a total (like 3, 7, 10 or 14 on a side) because it’s three points off of a multiple of seven (42).
Pick #2: Let’s risk 0.55 units to win 0.5 units on Seattle WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba to go ‘over’ 92.5 receiving yards (Hard Rock). I still like this play up to 99.5, but it was in the 92.5 to 95.5 range at most spots on Friday morning. Smith-Njigba has had at least 92 receiving yards in 14 of 19 games this year, and he’s had 96 receiving yards or more 12 times. JSN has produced at least 103 receiving yards 10 times.
Pick #3: New England QB Drake Maye has played in 20 games this season, rushing for 41 yards or more only seven times. However, an NFL season is a marathon for starting QBs, and they’re wisely trying to stay out of harm’s way much more from September-November than this time of year. Once the postseason arrives, there’s no tomorrow and QBs become much more willing runners. That’s certainly been the case for Maye, who has had at least 41 rushing yards in three of the last four games. Let’s risk 0.55 units to win 0.5 units on Maye to go ‘over’ 37.5 rushing yards.
Pick #4: Let’s risk 0.5 units to win 2.25 units on Jaxon Smith-Njigba to score the first TD of the game at +550 odds. JSN had 10 TD catches during the regular season and has scored one TD in both postseason contests to date.
Pick #5: New England backup RB TreVeyon Henderson has at least 24 rushing yards in 16 of 20 games this season. Let’s risk 0.55 units to win 0.5 units on Henderson to go ‘over’ 18.5 rushing yards (FanDuel).