As loyal readers know, I always have what I call a sink-or-swim pick for the Super Bowl. Rather than put one unit on more than a half-dozen picks, I like to put several units on my sink-or-swim play.
It was the Chiefs last year for a winner.
This time around, it’s the ‘over’ for Super Bowl LIX for three units.
Then I can go make smaller plays on props, but for not nearly as much risk. In this scenario, I can still net a decent profit for the game – even if I mostly strike out on props – as long as my sink-or-swim prediction hits.
Let’s risk 1.1 units to win one unit (-110 odds DraftKings) on Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts to score a touchdown.
Hurts has scored 16 TDs in the last 13 games he’s played. He’s found the end zone in 10 of the Eagles’ last 13 contests (when he’s been in uniform, that is), and one of the three games he didn’t score in was when he left a loss at Washington late in the first quarter due to a concussion.
Another factor driving this play is Philadelphia’s preference to go with the tush-push play when it’s inside the enemy’s two-yard line. Despite the presence of elite RB Saquon Barkley, it’s usually Hurts who gets his number called in short-yardage situations.
Let’s risk 0.55 units to win 0.5 units on Hurts to go ‘over’ 36.5 rushing yards (FanDuel).
In the last 12 games he’s played, Hurts has had at least 37 rushing yards nine times. (He was limited to 36 yards vs. Green Bay in the wild card round.) Although he was limited to 16 rushing yards in the NFC Championship Game, Hurts was still dealing with some knee soreness from the previous week’s win over the Rams. With two weeks off since then, I think he’s healthier and will be a more willing runner vs. Kansas City. And finally, let’s remember that Hurts had 70 rushing yards and three TDs against the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII two years ago.
Let’s risk 0.5 units on Hurts to score a TD in the first half for a +220 payout (FanDuel) that would earn 1.1 units of profit.
Let’s risk 0.2 units on a propfecta (parlay using props) for a +432 payout that would win 0.864 units. This propfecta has three parts: anytime TD by Hurts, Barkley’s rushing yards prop ‘over’ 112.5 and A.J. Brown ‘over’ 70.5 receiving yards.
I’m going to stop there. However, I wouldn’t try to talk anyone out of throwing some small change on the game to produce a safety for a +1200 (or 12/1) return or for the game to go to overtime (13/1 payout).
As readers can clearly see in my propfecta, I’m certainly not against the ‘over’ on Barkley’s rushing yards (112.5) and/or the ‘over’ for Brown’s receiving yards (70.5), but I don’t want to risk any more units than the 2.35 that I already have in play.
This goes back to my original premise of wanting to profit even if I strike out completely on props. If I hit the ‘over’ for three units of profit, I will still have 0.65 units of profit if I lose every prop.
Best of luck to all with your wagers!