As of Friday morning, more than a week before Super Bowl LIX, most books had Kansas City listed as a 1.5-point favorite vs. Philadelphia. The total was 49 points at most spots, while the Chiefs were -125 to -130 on the money line, leaving the Eagles at +105 or +110 odds to win outright.
Jay Kornegay and his staff at the Westgate SuperBook had Andy Reid’s team at -1.
In Kansas City’s 32-29 win over Buffalo in the AFC Championship Game, the 61 combined points easily soared ‘over’ the 49-point total. With 10:14 remaining, Patrick Mahomes ran for a 10-yard touchdown to put his team ahead, 27-22.
The score made the total at least a push, but Mahomes’ pass to Justin Watson for the two-point conversion made ‘over’ backers a winner.
The ‘over’ has hit in back-to-back games for the Eagles despite being played in frigid temperatures and very snowy conditions in their 28-22 win over the Rams, which saw the 50 combined points go ‘over’ the 43-point total.
They covered the ‘over’ for the total with their own production in last week’s 55-23 win over Washington in the NFC Championship Game. The 78 combined points elevated ‘over’ the 47-point tally on Jalen Hurts’s nine-yard TD run with 8:58 left in the third quarter.
Hurts’s second of three TD runs gave Philadelphia a 34-15 lead. When Washington cut the deficit to 11 at 34-23 late in the third quarter, Hurts countered with a one-yard TD run with 12:24 remaining.
In addition to the three rushing scores, Hurts completed 20-of-28 passes for 246 yards and one TD without a turnover. After recording only six catches for 60 yards in a three-game stretch, WR A.J. Brown had six receptions for 96 yards and one TD against the Commanders.
TE Dallas Goedert added seven catches for 85 yards. Saquon Barkley had 118 rushing yards and three TDs on just 15 carries.
If we discount Philadelphia’s regular-season finale when it rested starters and beat the Giants 20-13 in a game that went ‘under,’ the ‘over’ is on a 4-1 surge for the Eagles in their last five games.
When these teams met in the Super Bowl two years ago, Kansas City won a 38-35 decision. The 73 combined points exploded ‘over’ the 51-point tally.
When Mahomes found Kadarius Toney for a five-yard TD pass with 12:04 remaining, the Chiefs took a 28-27 lead and the game went ‘over’ the total.
Hurts didn’t have Barkley to lean on in that game, but he still completed 27-of-38 throws for 304 yards and one TD without a pick. He also had a team-best 70 rushing yards and three TDs on 15 attempts.
WR DeVonta Smith had seven receptions for 100 yards, and Brown caught six balls for 96 yards and one TD.
Mahomes connected on 21-of-27 passes for 182 yards and three TDs without an interception. He added 44 rushing yards on only six totes. Travis Kelce had six catches on six targets for 81 yards and one TD.
In the Chiefs’ last eight games (that he’s played in this season, as he sat out the regular-season finale), Mahomes has 13 TD passes without an interception. During KC’s current nine-game postseason winning streak, Mahomes has 15 TD passes compared to just one interception.
In 20 career postseason games, he has a 43/8 TD-INT ratio.
In Philadelphia’s three-game postseason run back to the Super Bowl with home wins over the Packers, Rams and Commanders, Hurts has completed 48-of-69 passes (69.6%) for 505 yards and three TDs without an interception. He has 122 rushing yards and four TDs on 23 carries for a 5.3 yards-per-carry average.
Hurts has led the Eagles to a 5-2 record in seven playoff games in the last three seasons. He has nine rushing TDs and seven TD passes without an interception in those contests.
PREDICTION: I’m on ‘over’ 49 points for three units (risking 3.3 units).
NOTE: I’ll have more Super Bowl LIX picks on props, Team Totals, etc., in a separate article early next week.