As of Tuesday morning, most betting shops had Detroit (13-2 straight up, 10-5 against the spread) installed as a 3.5-point road favorite for its Week 17 showdown at San Francisco. The total was 51 or 51.5 points, while the 49ers were +165 on the money line.
Most spots had Detroit’s Team Total at 27.5 points. For now, that is, as I suspect that this number will get to at least 28 points, if not 28.5.
Detroit has scored 34, 42 and 34 points in its last three games. The Lions are ranked #1 in the NFL in scoring with their 32.9 points-per-game average. They’re ranked #2 in the NFL in both total offense and passing yards, in addition to ranking #6 in rushing yards.
Although Dan Campbell’s team is dealing with injuries galore on the defensive side of the ball, it’s healthy on offense with the exception of RB David Montgomery. With Montgomery missing his first game last week, RB Jahmyr Gibbs had 109 rushing yards and one touchdown on 23 attempts in a 34-17 win at Chicago. He also had four catches for 45 receiving yards.
(Side Note: Montgomery has spurned surgery on his MCL injury and is expected to return for Detroit’s first game in the postseason.)
I backed Detroit’s Team Total ‘over’ 27.5 points last week in the win over the Bears. The Lions made that bet a winner with 12:18 left in the third quarter on Jared Goff’s 21-yard TD pass to Sam LaPorta.
From there, Campbell’s team went conservative and tried to chew clock more than adding to its 34-point output.
Goff was spectacular once again at Chicago. He completed 23-of-32 passes for 336 yards and three TDs without an interception. In Detroit’s last six games, Goff has a 17/1 TD-INT ratio.
San Francisco (6-9 SU, 5-10 ATS) has given up 29 (at Miami), 35 (at Buffalo) and 38 points (at Green Bay) in three of its last five games. The 49ers are the NFL’s most disappointing team and are simply playing out the string in the final two weeks of the regular season.
This will be a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game. That’s not a fond memory for the Lions, who allowed a 24-7 halftime lead to get away in a 34-31 loss at San Francisco.
We saw how Campbell’s team responded in a revenge game at Dallas earlier this season. Remember, the Lions got robbed of a victory at Dallas in 2023 on a horrible call by the officials.
Therefore, Detroit took great pride in dealing out an absolute shellacking at Dallas back in Week 6, breaking out trick plays galore in sticking it to the Cowboys by a 47-9 score.
My point? In backing Detroit’s Team Total to go ‘over,’ I’m confident that we won’t have to deal with the Lions going conservative offensively. They’re going to want to put in on the 49ers good and exorcise some demons in the process.
PREDICTIONS: Let’s back Detroit’s Team Total ‘over 27.5 points at a -105 price (DraftKings on Tuesday morning) for 2.5 units. Let’s also risk 1.3 units to win one by buying the half-point from -3.5 to -3 on the Lions.
Those are my two official plays for this game in the above paragraph. However, if you want to get even more aggressive, I’m all for smaller plays on the Lions -2.5 in the first half and their Team Total to go ‘over’ 13.5 (-125 price) in the first half.