As of early Wednesday morning, most books had Detroit (11-1 straight up, 9-3 against the spread) installed as a 3.5-point home favorite for Thursday’s NFC North showdown vs. Green Bay. However, South Point had the Lions at -3 and the Westgate SuperBook had them at -3 with a -120 price.
The total was 51.5 or 52 points, while the Packers were in the +150 to +160 range on the money line.
Detroit has won 10 games in a row with nine wins by margins of at least three points. The Lions own home wins over the Rams by six points, the Seahawks by 13, the Titans by 38, the Jaguars by 46 and the Bears by three.
However, they should’ve beaten Chicago by 2-3 touchdowns. Dan Campbell’s team had an opening drive that at up 7:54 of clock and covered 58 yards in 15 plays, only for Detroit to settle for a 30-yard field goal.
After a 10-play, 90-yard drive resulted in a three-yard TD pass from Jared Goff to Sam LaPorta to give the Lions a 10-0 lead, their defense forced the second of three consecutive three and outs on Chicago’s offense. Next, Campbell’s squad drove right down the field to set up a first-and-goal situation from Chicago’s 4.
But a holding penalty and a sack led to the Lions needing a 36-yard field goal to go ahead 13-0 despite an 11-play, 56-yard drive that chewed up 5:26 of clock. Detroit added another field goal for a 16-0 advantage on its next possession.
Chicago’s fourth offensive series resulted in seven yards, but it failed to convert on a fourth-and-three play. Detroit went 31 yards on five plays to penetrate the red zone yet again, but a fumble by RB Jahmyr Gibbs cost his team another scoring opportunity.
The Bears finally scored to start the third quarter, only to see Detroit answer with an 11-play, 78-yard drive that ate up more than seven minutes of clock to give the Lions a 23-7 lead.
Campbell’s team gave up two more TD drives and missed a 45-yard field goal, which cost Detroit the spread cover as a 9.5-point favorite. Whatever the case, my point is that the Lions should’ve won by a bigger margin.
When Detroit went to Lambeau Field last month, it dominated in a 24-14 win at Green Bay that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicated. The Lions raced out to a 17-3 halftime lead in rainy conditions.
Then on the opening drive of the second half, Detroit went 71 yards on nine plays before Gibbs put his team in front 24-3 on a 15-yard TD run. From there, the Lions simply tried to chew clock and get out of the building with the victory.
Green Bay (9-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) cut the deficit to 24-6 on a field goal with 48 seconds left in the third quarter. However, it remained a three-possession game until the Packers scored with 3:49 left in the contest.
Matt LeFleur’s team has won four straight road games, but let’s look into those wins a little more. Green Bay beat the Rams 24-19 when Matt Stafford was playing without his two elite WRs in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
The Packers won 30-27 at Jacksonville, which has a 2-10 SU record, but failed to cover as 3.5-point road ‘chalk.’ They also won 20-19 at Chicago, which is 4-8 SU and has lost six consecutive contests, and failed to hook up their backer as six-point favorites.
Ben Johnson’s Detroit offense is #1 in the NFL in scoring with its 31.9 points-per-game average, #2 in total offense, #4 in rushing yards and #5 in passing yards. As for the defense, the Lions are ranked fifth versus the run and second in scoring ‘D’ (16.9 PPG).
In Detroit’s last four home games, Goff has 11 TD passes without an interception. Goff has a 10/3 TD-INT ratio in seven games against the Packers since being traded to the Lions from the Rams.
Detroit is 5-1 both SU and ATS in the last six head-to-head meetings against Green Bay.
PREDICTIONS: Lions -3 (South Point) for 2.5 units vs. Green Bay, Lions -2.5 in the first half for one-half unit and Lions’ Team Total ‘over’ 27.5 points for one-half unit.