Will Muschamp seemed to have South Carolina ahead of schedule after the 2017 season.
The Gamecocks improved to 9-4 with an Outback Bowl win in Muschamp’s second season. (South Carolina had finished 3-9 in 2015, Steve Spurrier’s last year.)
Some even saw the Gamecocks as the team most likely to challenge Georgia in the SEC East prior to the 2018 season. Then the team finished 7-6.
This season will go a long way in determining the narrative around Muschamp’s tenure in Columbia.
It’s not easy to consistently win in the SEC, let alone at South Carolina. The roster didn’t have enough talent when he arrived. The fan base and the administration knew it would take years for Muschamp’s plan to materialize. It’s now getting close to that point.
“I think most of the South Carolina fan base realizes the roster that Muschamp inherited had holes in a lot of spots and lacked depth at almost every position,” beat writer Wes Mitchell of GamecockCentral.com said.
“There’s a certain segment of fans that isn’t happy, and certainly last season was a step back, but as far as the administration is concerned, Muschamp is very safe. He took over a multi-year rebuild job and has continued to upgrade the talent level since arriving in Columbia. He’ll have the chance to see that through and see where he can take the program once the roster is entirely his.”
This season’s schedule offers a convenient excuse if the program stagnates. Most SEC teams fill their schedules with pushovers in the nonconference.
However, South Carolina plays two Power 5 foes in Clemson (the defending national champions) and North Carolina (with a newly unretired Mack Brown), in addition to a tough Sun Belt team in Appalachian State.
The Gamecocks’ SEC West crossover games come against Alabama and Texas A&M (in College Station in Jimbo Fisher’s second season as coach). Then there are SEC East games against preseason favorites Georgia and Florida.
It’s hard to find a road to a winning record, especially when the slate contains four teams that finished in the top seven of last year’s final Associated Press rankings.
“One of the biggest talking points this offseason from both a local and conference perspective has been the difficulty of South Carolina’s schedule, which many consider to be the toughest in the country,” Mitchell said.
“The majority of the fans and media in South Carolina realize that there are several games that the Gamecocks will be major underdogs in. In any other scenario, I think Muschamp would need more than seven wins to keep folks happy, but in this instance, 7-5 may be enough. A marquee upset win would go a long way, though.”
As of May 29, we were not able to find a posted season win total for South Carolina. But a few national sites have predicted anywhere between 6.5 and 7.5. (BetOnline does have South Carolina as a 7.5-point favorite over North Carolina as part of its Games of the Year.)
If the Gamecocks win seven or more games, it’ll be because the defense took a big step forward. South Carolina finished 67th and 84th in scoring defense and total defense in 2018.
Muschamp made his name as one of the best defensive coordinators and game-planners in the country, and he can’t produce back-to-back poor defenses and expect to maintain job security.
“South Carolina’s defense should take a huge leap this season,” Mitchell said. “As much as that unit struggled down the stretch last season, it’s important to remember that they were relegated to playing backups at almost every position by the end of the season.
“This should be a more talented, more experienced, and most importantly, a deeper defense this season. The defensive line, in particular, should be much improved. It’s not far-fetched to think that this defense could go from being one of the worst in the conference statistically to the upper half of the league.”
The offense could regress. Deebo Samuel, the 36th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, produced 882 receiving yards and 13 total touchdowns, including one on a kickoff return and one on a fumble recovery.
“Deebo Samuel was special and one of the best I’ve ever seen put on a Carolina uniform,” Mitchell said. “He’s not the type of player that one player can simply replace. It’s going to have to be a group effort.
“Junior Shi Smith isn’t as strong as Samuel as far as breaking tackles, but does have similar quickness and big-play ability. Returning senior Bryan Edwards will obviously have to have a big season and the Gamecocks will be counting on sophomores OrTre Smith, who is coming off a season-ending injury last year, and Josh Vann.”
Senior quarterback Jake Bentley has made slow but positive statistical progression every season as more of the offense has relied on his arm. He threw for 27 touchdowns and 3,171 yards in 2018. His experience will be crucial to helping receivers other than the established Edwards continue to progress.
This will be one of Muschamp’s toughest seasons to date with a difficult schedule and no top-tier offensive playmaker. Putting together a 7-5 regular season or better would go a long way in showing the fans and administration he has the program still on the right track.
After analyzing the schedule, I believe the “under” is the right call for any number posted above 7 for South Carolina, and I’d lean under at 7.
There are too many daunting road games and not enough easy opponents to rack up wins. The offense won’t be able to carry the team to eight wins. And in seven seasons as a head coach at Florida and South Carolina, Muschamp has won more than seven games just twice.
South Carolina’s 300/1 odds to win the College Football Playoff are a major longshot, one I don’t suggest playing. It is tied for the 32nd-best odds in the country coming in around the likes of Purdue and Iowa State. I wouldn’t spend much time worrying about the Gamecocks surprising the college football world with a championship run.